Best Supporting Actress Prediction for 2020 Oscars
Katie Richcreek: Laura Dern, Marriage Story (-2500)
Beyond the fact she gave a stellar performance in Noah Baumbach’s Netflix film and has swept award season, there are a couple key points that could factor into the Academy’s decision here:
- Dern has been been on a tear since 2017, dominating the small and big screen since — this year alone she’s starred in two Best Picture-nominated films. It’s the type of run the Academy loves to reward, especially for a universally beloved actress
- Despite earning six nominations, Marriage Story isn’t primed to take home a lot of hardware on Sunday night. This is the only category in which they’re the front-runner (according to sportsbooks and the public conversation), so this would be the most obvious way to ensure the movie is recognized.
Don’t let any odds movement fool you: Dern is a lock.
Chris Raybon: Dern to Win, Scarlett Johansson at +2400 or Better
Of the four acting frontrunners, Dern was the only one not picked to win by 100% of Gold Derby experts at the time of this writing, with 6.5% picking Johansson to pull off the upset.
That doesn’t translate to quite as much in terms of true odds: Historically, a nominee picked by 5-10% of experts has hit at a 3.9% clip, so you’d still want odds of +2400 or better before betting on Johansson. I still have Dern at 94.2% odds (-1625), so technically, she’s the better value given current odds.
One thing we do know for sure is that Margot Robbie will be getting at least one vote because some guy has a crush on her.
Best Supporting Actress Odds for 2020 Oscars
- Laura Dern (Marriage Story) -2500
- Margot Robbie (Bombshell) +1200
- Florence Pugh (Little Women) +1400
- Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit) +2000
- Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) +5000
