Who is the star of Thanksgiving? You might be tempted to say your favorite NFL player, or the turkey. But let’s be honest — the real stars are the sides: the creamy potatoes, the bubbling casseroles, the recipes passed down and tweaked every year until they taste like home.
Yet, where you live vastly impacts what sides you’ll be digging into.
Here at The Action Network, we like odds, and it got us thinking: What are the odds of a delicious Thanksgiving full of yummy sides? Where are you most likely to be besieged by casseroles? Are some states obsessed with the contentious cranberry sauce?
Using search data, family size, and classic holiday patterns, we calculated the implied probability of each side dish making it onto your Thanksgiving plate.
Interesting Findings
- Stuffing is the most likely side in 26 states.
- Mashed potatoes have a 38.9% chance of making your plate, narrowly edging out stuffing at 38.5% nationally.
- Mac n’ cheese(36.37%) is the third most popular side and primarily a favorite in the South.
- Kentucky keeps it corny — the Bluegrass State’s most likely side is corn pudding with 32.98% odds.
- Green Bean Casserole leads in more than 35 states, making it the undisputed casserole king.
- Sweet Potato Casserole claims the South, topping states from Alabama to Virginia.
- Stuffing vs. Dressing: 37 states lean stuffing, 8 go for dressing, and 5 are tossups — forming a culinary Mason-Dixon Line.
- Utah loves cranberry sauce the most with 29.32% probability of the controversial dish being on a Utah table.
Thanksgiving Side Odds
Here’s how the numbers shake out nationally — these odds show the likelihood each side will appear on an American Thanksgiving plate.
| Rank | Side | Implied Probability | American Odds | Fractional Odds |
| 1 | Mashed Potatoes | 38.93% | +157 | 2/1 |
| 2 | Stuffing | 38.47% | +160 | 2/1 |
| 3 | Macaroni and Cheese | 36.37% | +175 | 2/1 |
| 4 | Cranberry Sauce | 21.42% | +367 | 4/1 |
| 5 | Sweet Potato Casserole | 18.67% | +436 | 4/1 |
| 6 | Green Bean Casserole | 13.26% | +654 | 7/1 |
| 7 | Gravy | 12.40% | +706 | 7/1 |
| 8 | Brussels Sprouts | 11.60% | +762 | 8/1 |
| 9 | Butternut Squash | 10.31% | +870 | 9/1 |
| 10 | Baked Potato | 10.24% | +877 | 9/1 |
| 11 | Cornbread | 10.00% | +900 | 9/1 |
| 12 | Green Beans | 8.30% | +1,105 | 11/1 |
| 13 | Baked Sweet Potatoes | 8.05% | +1,142 | 11/1 |
| 14 | Corn | 8.01% | +1,148 | 12/1 |
| 15 | Corn Pudding | 7.73% | +1,194 | 12/1 |
| 16 | Biscuit | 7.46% | +1,240 | 12/1 |
| 17 | Turkey Gravy | 7.34% | +1,262 | 13/1 |
| 18 | Creamed Corn | 5.94% | +1,584 | 16/1 |
| 19 | Roasted Carrots | 5.02% | +1,892 | 19/1 |
| 20 | Dressing | 3.32% | +2,912 | 29/1 |
*Odds above are for entertainment purposes only. These do not reflect odds that may be available on betting apps. If you’re interested in betting odds, you can use this BetMGM Bonus Code to check them out.
Across the country, Thanksgiving tables are ruled by comfort classics — mashed potatoes (38.9%), stuffing (38.5%), and macaroni and cheese (36.4%) lead the pack as America’s top sides.
Beyond the big three, cranberry sauce (21.4%) and sweet potato casserole (18.7%) stand out as festive favorites.
Casseroles continue to shine — from green bean to mac & cheese (which is, at a minimum, casserole-like)— proving that baked, family-style dishes are central to Thanksgiving comfort. Meanwhile, regional stars like cornbread, corn pudding, and Brussels sprouts round out the menu.
The Thanksgiving Side Each State Is Most Likely To Have
- “Stuffing Nation”- Despite regional quirks, most Americans (26 states!) agree: the bread-based classic still wins Thanksgiving.
- Right behind stuffing in popularity is mashed potatoes; 17 states are obsessed with mashed potatoes.
- Mac n’ cheese is the third most popular side and primarily a favorite in the South.
- Kentucky Keeps It Corny — Kentucky is the only state most likely to have corn pudding.
- The United States is split right down the middle- not politically, but culinarily. On one side sits the Potato Belt, where creamy mashed potatoes reign supreme. On the other hand, the Mac & Cheese South, where bubbling, cheesy casseroles are the ultimate comfort food.
- Down South, comfort food is a love language- and nothing says ‘we’re family’ like a dish of mac and cheese golden enough to double as a centerpiece.
The State Of Casseroles: The Casserole Each State Is Most Likely To Serve
- Green Bean Casserole dominates the nation, leading in more than 35 states, from California and New York to Oregon and Florida.
- Green Bean Casserole has become a love language all its own-creamy, crunchy, and unmistakably nostalgic.
- Sweet Potato Casserole holds strong in the South, claiming states like Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Virginia, and Kentucky.
- 10 states — including Texas, Ohio, and Wisconsin — are split between Sweet Potato and Green Bean Casseroles.
Stuffing vs. Dressing: Is a State More Likely to Serve Stuffing or Dressing?
If you’re north of the Mason-Dixon Line, it’s stuffing. Below it, it’s dressing. And right along it… it’s complicated.
- Stuffing dominates: Out of 50 states, 37 prefer stuffing, 8 prefer dressing, and 5 are tossups.
- That means roughly three-quarters of the U.S. leans toward stuffing, making it the clear national favorite.
- The South is Dressing Country: Classic Southern states like Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Tennessee favor dressing.
- Cornbread dressing is the Southern secret weapon: golden on top, soft inside, and just sweet enough to make gravy taste even better.
- The “tossup” states (Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma) form a transitional belt between stuffing-heavy and dressing-heavy regions.
Cranberry Sauce Odds
While cranberry odds vary nationally, a few states stand out for their passion and love of this controversial (and often canned) Thanksgiving side. Cranberry sauce might not be the most likely dish on every table (stuffing and mashed potatoes dominate much of the country) but these five states keep the sweet-tart tradition alive and well.
| Rank | State / Sides | Family Size | Searches Per 100k People | Probability | American Odds | Fractional Odds |
| 1 | Utah | 2.99 | 185.2 | 29.32% | +241 | 2/1 |
| 2 | Hawaii | 2.88 | 14.5 | 26.86% | +272 | 3/1 |
| 3 | California | 2.86 | 186.5 | 26.84% | +273 | 3/1 |
| 4 | Massachusetts | 2.45 | 205.3 | 25.28% | +296 | 3/1 |
| 5 | Vermont | 2.30 | 200.5 | 24.70% | +305 | 3/1 |
Top 5 States For Cranberry Sauce
1. Utah
- Implied Probability for Cranberry Sauce: 29.32%
- Searches per 100K People: 185.2
- Favorite Side: Stuffing
Utah tops the list for cranberry sauce enthusiasm, even though stuffing officially claims the title of favorite side. With one of the largest average family sizes in the nation, Utahns are all about big gatherings — and big spreads. The Beehive State’s love for cranberry sauce proves that no Thanksgiving plate is complete without a tangy pop of color.
2. Hawaii
- Implied Probability for Cranberry Sauce: 26.86%
- Searches per 100K People: 14.5
- Favorite Side: Mashed Potatoes
Hawaiians have comparatively low searches for cranberry sauce. However, overall interest in traditional Thanksgiving food searches are lower in paradise, making cranberry sauce a likely side by default. Perhaps islanders still crave a taste of the traditional mainland feast. Whether paired with kalua turkey or pineapple-glazed ham, cranberry sauce adds a festive splash of red to tropical tables.
3. California
- Implied Probability for Cranberry Sauce: 26.84%
- Searches per 100K People: 186.5
- Favorite Side: Mashed Potatoes
California blends modern tastes with classic comfort. From farm-to-table gatherings in wine country to beachside Friendsgivings, the Golden State stays true to the Thanksgiving staple. Mashed potatoes may reign supreme, but Californians clearly can’t resist a spoonful of sweet-tart cranberry goodness.
4. Massachusetts
- Implied Probability for Cranberry Sauce: 25.28%
- Searches per 100K People: 205.3
- Favorite Side: Mashed Potatoes
Massachusetts practically bleeds cranberry red — literally. Home to the country’s most famous cranberry bogs, the Bay State’s devotion to the fruit is deep-rooted. Even though mashed potatoes edge out the top side title, Massachusetts’ search interest shows locals keep the holiday classic close to their hearts (and plates).
5. Vermont
- Implied Probability for Cranberry Sauce: 24.70%
- Searches per 100K People: 200.5
- Favorite Side: Mashed Potatoes
Vermont rounds out the top five with a hearty love for cranberry sauce that rivals much larger states. Between maple syrup traditions, cozy farmhouse feasts, and scenic fall backdrops, Vermonters know a balanced meal — and cranberry sauce brings the perfect contrast to buttery mashed potatoes.
Other Interesting Cranberry Facts
Stuffing Still Reigns Supreme: Stuffing is the most likely side in half the country — including Utah — proving that even cranberry enthusiasts can’t resist a savory staple.
New England’s Cranberry Crown: Massachusetts and Vermont’s rankings are no accident — both sit at the heart of America’s cranberry-growing region.
Big Families, Big Flavor: Utah’s large family gatherings help explain its top spot, more people, more plates, more cranberry sauce.
Methodology
To turn Thanksgiving sides into data backed odds, we turned to Google Keyword Planner to measure November search traffic for more than 30 dishes and recipes. This is prime recipe searching, meal planning, shopping, and active cooking time for Thanksgiving Day. Since this year’s November is just starting, we turned to last year’s data to gauge what sides people are searching the most — and where they are searching for them.
From those figures, we calculated each dish’s implied probability — the estimated likelihood that it appears on an average Thanksgiving table once search interest, family size, and traditional menu weights were applied.
Traditional favorites (measured from studies done by Campbell’s and Google’s Thanksgiving report) were given weight to take into consideration that many people may not be actively Googling a recipe they’ve cooked for years. Favorites include mashed potatoes, sweet potatoes, gravy, macaroni and cheese, cranberry sauce, and stuffing. Yes, we did controversially count gravy as a side. No, we do not have data on which states are guzzling gravy by itself like a cocktail.
Other weights included taking into account Thanksgiving dinner composition (number of sides and side pairings). Additionally, average family size from the most recent US Census was applied to the state-level data. Typically, bigger household sizes translate to larger Thanksgiving gatherings, and the more guests, the more sides (and thus chances for a dish to appear).
You can see a more in-depth breakdown here.
Sources
Data for this analysis came from multiple publicly available datasets:
Google Keyword Planner (Nov 2024): Search volume for 30+ Thanksgiving side dishes by state.
Google Trends: Used to confirm year-over-year consistency in side-dish interest.
Campbell’s Thanksgiving Report (2023): Provided national benchmarks for traditional holiday sides.
U.S. Census Bureau (2023): Household size data applied as a weighting factor for family gatherings.
Percentages reflect implied probabilities — modeled estimates of how likely each dish is to appear on a typical Thanksgiving table.
Figures are modeled for entertainment and cultural insight purposes only.
