Premier League Picks | Tottenham vs Man United Odds, Preview, Prediction
Rob Newell/Getty. Pictured: James Maddison.
Tottenham vs Man United Odds
| Tottenham Odds | +180 |
| Man United Odds | +137 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188 / +150 |
Ange Postecoglou will manage his first Premier League match at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Saturday as Manchester United visit Spurs. Tottenham settled for a 2-2 draw at Brentford in Postecoglou's first league match in charge as he made a clear tactical imprint on his side in their possession-based tactics against the Bees.
Those tactics and Tottenham in life after Harry Kane will be tested on Saturday against Manchester United — who most oddsmakers had as the league's fourth-best team entering the 2023-24 season. The Red Devils won their home opener, 1-0, against Wolves on Monday night football, but they conceded more than 2 xG and looked quite shaky defensively throughout the match.
Both teams enter this match with plenty of questions in and out of possession, but Manchester United's dodgy away form under Erik ten Hag suggests they haven't earned this price as a road favorite in North London.
Read on for my Tottenham vs Man United analysis.
Tottenham
No team in the Premier League completed more passes into the final third in match week 1 than Tottenham on Sunday against Brentford. 74 passes into the final third is an encouraging view of Postecoglou, given that Tottenham were below league average in this category last season. Part of that is driven by opponent, as Brentford were happy to concede possession and passes into the final third without allowing Spurs into their penalty area. Tottenham completed just six into the penalty area, which suggests they were quite inefficient at turning final third possession into shots and chances.
Spurs found a lot of success through the passing range of both Yves Bissouma and James Maddison in the center of the park. Postecoglou should be able to find more use of Dejan Kulusevski and Heung-min Son in this matchup against United, where there is sure to be more space in transition and in behind than there was on the road against a very passive Brentford side.
The biggest question for Tottenham tactically in this matchup is how well it will deal with the high press of United. The Red Devils turned Wolves over 16 times in their own half on Monday, which shows that Spurs will be under real pressure building out of their 2-3-5 shell.
Cristian Romero is expected to play for Spurs after he left Sunday's match with a head injury. His partnership with new center back Mickey van de Ven gives Tottenham two solid ball playing center backs that fit the system much better than Davinson Sanchez and Eric Dier.
The other question is whether a front three of Son, Kulusevski and Richarlison will produce enough shots to maintain a top six level attack. There are real questions about how the front three fit into the Postecoglou system, but at Brentford is a difficult fixture to find space and United's defense is considerably more exploitable tactically.
Man United
Man United entered the season as the most overrated defense in the league and the match against Wolves didn't do much to ease concerns. United pressed really high and did create a lot of turnovers, but it often left Casemiro isolated in defensive midfield. He played a really poor match and the result was a lot of transition for Wolves.
United conceded the second-most box entries in the entire league, ahead of only Luton Town. They conceded more than 2 xG at home to Wolves, and Wolves were the worst attack in the entire league last year by expected goals created.
The Red Devils will certainly get more production from their attacking group going forward, but with Lisandro Martinez pushed up, Aaron Wan-Bissaka more involved in the attack and Casemiro potentially losing a step, United will continue to struggle defensively.
Tottenham vs Man United
Pick
Manchester United didn't win a single away match last season against the top nine teams in my Premier League power ratings. The defense really struggled away from home and they managed just two points in those nine contests. As much as people wrote about how poor Tottenham and Liverpool were defensively in 2022-23, it's important to note than Manchester United actually conceded more xGA on the road than both clubs did last year.
There were certainly some outliers in the numbers — six goals conceded to City and seven to Liverpool — but United still had a -4.3 xG difference on their travels. That included blowing a 2-0 lead at Spurs in a match in which they conceded 2.5 xGA when Spurs were at their lowest point.
United shouldn't be a road favorite. I have this lined as a true tossup and would bet Spurs draw no bet at +105 or better. The total has been bet up considerably all week, but if the over 2.5 drops to -150 or better, I'd bet that too.
Picks: Tottenham draw no bet (+105 or better) | Over 2.5 (-150 or better)
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