The Miami Formula 1 Grand Prix, the first of three F1 races to be held in the United States in 2025, takes place Sunday. The event, held at the Miami International Autodrome in Miami Gardens, will be the sixth race of the season and could shape the rest of the season.
We'll take a look at the markets on Kalshi, which operates more like a stock market than a traditional sportsbook. Find my Formula 1 betting preview and Miami Grand Prix prediction below.
Miami Formula 1 Grand Prix Preview
The Miami Grand Prix comes at a crucial point in the calendar. With five races down, we've more or less seen what every team and driver is capable of, and the results are clear: McLaren will be the team to beat in the Constructors' Championship.
While drivers have complained of certain instability, the McLaren MCL39 has shown to be the class of the field in terms of raw pace and it will take a flawless, devilish drive — like Max Verstappen's at Japan — to compete with the Papaya team.
However, on the Drivers' Championship side of things, it's much less clear. Lando Norris was seen as McLaren's number one driver coming into the season, but the British driver has seemingly suffered confidence issues after his win in Australia in the season debut. That left the door wide open for teammate Oscar Piastri to take the lead. The Australian won in China, then stormed to the top of the table with back-to-back wins in the Middle East doubleheader at Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.
The gap is by no means insurmountable and Piastri, who's only in his second season as an F1 driver, could have confidence issues of his own as the season progresses. Still, he's looked calm and collected in taking command of the championship, and that has shown in the Kalshi markets. Piastri is the c0-favorite to win the Miami Grand Prix, tied at 36% with the much more experienced Norris.
For the rest of the field, things are much more open. Verstappen, the defending champion, hasn't lost the edge he showed in the past four seasons, when he established himself as the leading driver in his class. Still, he's without the best machinery, as Red Bull Racing has struggled to construct a stable and fast car. The Milton Keynes-based team is reeling from the loss of chief technical officer and car designer extraordinaire Adrian Newey, but the cracks appeared long before the former Williams and McLaren man departed for Aston Martin.
In their struggles, Mercedes has appeared as McLaren's closest rival. George Russell became the team's undoubted number one driver after Lewis Hamilton's departure and has been incredibly consistent this season. At the same time, 18-year-old Kimi Antonelli has proven to be a solid, if slightly irregular, choice for the second car. This has ensured Mercedes is never too far from the lead.
It's a very different story for Ferrari. Despite the hype with the arrival of seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton, the sport's most laureate and famed team has struggled this season. The British driver has struggled to get the most out of the car after a decade driving for Mercedes. Meanwhile, teammate Charles Leclerc has struggled to match the front runners, while making the most of the chances he's got.
Miami Formula 1 Grand Prix Prediction, Pick
I'm going against the trend and backing Norris to win. The end of the Asian stint couldn't have come at a better time for him as he looked devoid of any confidence toward the end of the Saudi Arabia GP. The two-week break since is likely to have done wonders for a driver who has somehow become a villain for some fans.
If he wants to break the narrative about his lack of a "killer instinct", ending Piastri's summer and reclaiming the top of the table at Miami — where he won his first ever F1 race just a year ago — is a must. He has shown he can be faster than the Australian and now is a good opportunity to buy before his stock rises, if he outqualifies Piastri.
For Podium Finishers, I'll take George Russell to finish third. He's been Mr.Consistency this season and, as the second favorite, he offers more bang for your buck.
Yes, Verstappen is a faster driver, but he also has to compensate for a car that is much trickier to drive and a Red Bull Racing team that is entering Ferrari levels of organizational and strategic clumsiness. Russell can just sit and put his foot down, and that'll give him the edge.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
