The UFC has a quick turnaround after the massive UFC Freedom 250 event on Sunday, with a quietly very intriguing Apex card. The main event features a rematch nine years in the making between former RIZIN champions and current UFC title hopefuls Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi, who wrap up the 12-fight card. It airs at the usual 5:00 p.m. ET start time on Paramount+.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 119 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 119 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Manel Kape (-162) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (+136)
While the UFC tends to lean a bit too heavily on rematches, this one is well-deserved. Kape originally challenged Horiguchi in the semifinals of the 2017 RIZIN grand prix, losing by third-round submission. Both men later went on to claim gold in RIZIN — ironically, both by knocking out Kai Asakura, who also now fights in the UFC — before making their way to the UFC at different points.
Kape has been on the cusp of a UFC title fight for years now, but a combination of not staying healthy and an inopportune loss to Muhammad Moakev has denied him the opportunity. Horiguchi previously challenged Demetrius Johnson for the UFC title in 2015, but was out of the promotion for nearly a decade before returning late last year. The winner of this one is probably next in line for a flyweight title shot, depending on the health of Alejandre Pantoja.
We've got competing rematch trends here, as Horiguchi won the original matchup while Kape is the younger man by three years. I put less stock in the original matchup, given the format. It was the second fight in a one-weekend tournament, which is a unique situation that isn't super applicable elsewhere. However, Horiguchi also doesn't seem to have lost a step, with two dominant performances since returning to the Octagon.
All things considered, I'd say this line is about right. Horiguchi opened closer to +170 before being bet down, making the current line fairly efficient. Without digging in any further, I'd still lean slightly to the underdog, but I won't be betting it until I do more tape study during the week.
Verdict: Bonfim Undervalued
Andre Lima (-650) vs. Kevin Borjas (+470)
Only one fighter in the UFC can be considered lucky for being bitten during a fight, and that's Andre Lima. In his UFC debut, he was probably losing to Igor Severino before the latter bit a chunk out of his arm, earning a DQ win for "Mascote." He then went on to pick up a split decision win over Mitch Raposo, before picking up two more, less notable victories to run his UFC record to 4-0.
His opponent, Kevin Borjas, is a fighter I've long considered better than his record suggests. He's just 1-4 in the UFC, but he made his debut against flyweight champion Joshua Van, and was given a tough prospect, Imanol Rodriguez, in his last fight. Borjas managed to drop Rodriguez twice in that bout before getting finished himself, and has consistently flashed upside in the UFC without managing to convert that into wins.
Lima should certainly win this one, but there are some pretty big prices out there on Borjas. They've notably also came down a bit since open, as DraftKings originally listed Borjas at +500, with other books getting as high as +575. I'm not especially confident in it, but I'm taking a sprinkle on Borjas at a juicy number that I don't expect to be available for long, with the best at the moment +500 at BetMGM.
Verdict: Borjas Undervalued
Karol Rosa (-125) vs. Luana Santos (+105)
Karol Rosa has one of the more impressive streaks in the UFC, managing to appear in 12 UFC bouts without a single one ending inside the distance. She's also gone 3-0 in "contested decisions" or non-unanimous outcomes, which in theory should regress over time.
Conversely, Luana Santos has six UFC fights, going 5-1 with three finishes, and her only loss was a decision against top contender Casey O'Neil. That gives us two things to like about Santos in this fight, especially at an underdog price.
She clearly has more finishing upside, and also is the more proactive grappler, which gives her the ability to win rounds more clearly. On top of that, in a fight that is highly likely to go to the judges unless Santos does the finishing, I typically want to be on the underdog. If we're flipping coins, give me the side that pays out +110 instead of -130.
This line has bounced around already, but it seems to be trending towards a pick 'em, and much of that thesis falls apart if Santos isn't plus-money. DraftKings has moved from +110 to +105 in the time I took to write this, but you can still get the better price at FanDuel.
Verdict: Santos Undervalued
