Cardinals vs. Giants Odds, Picks, Predictions: [Editorial Language] (Saturday, May 7)

Cardinals vs. Giants Odds

The San Francisco Giants suffered a 3-2 defeat to the Cardinals on Friday night, resulting in their fifth straight loss. If you're a glass half full San Francisco fan, perhaps you'll take some solace in the fact that your team actually scored more than one run for the first time in four games. Giants fans could have even more reason for optimism with their ace, Logan Webb, getting the start on Saturday. The Cardinals will counter with southpaw Steven Matz who'll be looking to win his fourth straight decision. While the Giants are more like a wounded animal at the moment, history shows that Webb's had an uncanny ability to bring losing streaks to a complete halt. I'll expand on that and also explore how facing a left-hander will impact the Giants' chances to secure a victory.

St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis is currently on its longest winning streak (three games) of the season and given its Pythagorean expectation, perhaps a good run of form shouldn't come as a surprise. The Cardinals rank fifth in the majors in run differential despite ranking eighth in winning percentage (.615). A big part of their success is down to their pitching which boasts a 3.07 ERA. However, while Matz's 4.56 ERA is roughly 1.5 runs higher, his advanced numbers suggest that he's pitched even better. His 10.27 K/9 ratio is currently the second-highest of his career. Moreover, his 1.90 BB/9 and 0.38 HR/9 ratios are both career-bests. The problem for Matz is that the opposition is having success against him whenever they make contact. Hitters have a .296 AVG against him in addition to a .400 BABIP. I don't think those numbers are sustainable as his 2.10 FIP and 2.57 xFIP certainly point to some positive regression. This will be Matz's third season playing for a different team. He went 31-36 in six seasons pitching for his hometown Mets. In 2021, New York traded him to Toronto and he went 14-7 with a 3.82 ERA. I must admit that I was surprised the Blue Jays weren't able to re-sign him. That allowed the Cardinals to swoop in and land him on a four-year deal. At 30 years of age, Matz is at a point in his career where we often see left-handed pitchers start to put it together. There are no signs of a dip in velocity which could explain the increase in his strikeout rate. He'll look to further his success against a Giants team that's struggled against left-handers when you consider their .202/.289/.301 line.

San Francisco Giants

Webb catapulted to the top of the Giants rotation after a breakout in 2021. The 25-year-old right-hander went 11-3 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. He finished the year with a 3.18 SIERA which projected nicely for this upcoming season. Thus, it should be no surprise that Webb is off to another fast start as he's 3-1 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP.  His advanced numbers are right in line with his traditional ERA when you consider his 2.78 FIP and 3.27 xFIP. Webb's command continues to improve as his BB/9 ratio is down from 2.18 to 1.78 this season. He's also allowing fewer home runs, evidenced by a 0.30 HR/9 ratio. While alarmists might point to a lower strikeout rate (5.93 K/9) compared to last year (9.59 K/9), Webb's elite ability to continue to induce ground balls (2.90 GB/FB) could hold a greater value for his team. In his five outings this season, Webb's already logged four quality starts. As a result, he's clearly the least of the problems which the Giants face at the moment. San Francisco's really just in a bad funk offensively right now. Although the Giants still have an above-average wRC+ value of 101 for the season, that number plummets to 86 over the past seven days. At this point, it's almost as if the Giants need a cataclysmic event to turn things around in their favor. Albeit a somewhat tepid response, scoring more than one run on Friday seems like a step in the right direction. However, while the Giants have struggled against southpaws, it's worth noting that they're 3-1 overall against left-handed starters this season.

Cardinals-Giants Pick

I backed Alex Cobb to bounce back on Friday after a disastrous start where he failed to get out of the first inning. There was a tremendous angle in which the Giants were a perfect 5-0 coming into a matchup where they scored just one run in three straight games. Cobb did his part as he limited the Cardinals to two runs in five innings while striking out eight batters. Unfortunately, San Francisco couldn't take control of the game as the Cardinals scratched a ninth-inning run. Today, I'm back with another trend that comes into this contest unblemished at the moment.

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When the Giants are coming off at least one loss, they're a perfect 5-0 as a moneyline favorite with Webb on the mound. If you're looking to snap a losing streak, who better to have on the mound than your ace? After shopping around, I found that WynnBet has the best price on the board with the Giants listed at -128. I think they're worth a look in this spot and I'll look to risk a half-unit of my bankroll on the home favorites.

Pick: half-unit on Giants ML (-128)