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Wyndham Championship Betting Guide: Back Cabrera-Bello To Stay Hot

  • The Wyndham Championship features a weak field headlined by tournament favorite Webb Simpson at +1200.
  • Rafa Cabrera-Bello is in good form and looking to crack the Ryder Cup roster, so he's good value at +2500.
  • The weaker field presents a few triple-digit longshots worth a wager.

What better way to back up an electric PGA Championship than with a tournament headlined by Webb Simpson.

But with the playoffs looming next week, most of the stars are taking the Wyndham Championship off to rest up for the sprint toward $10 million and the FedEx Cup title.

With a weaker field, we have a good opportunity to find some value down the board.

The Course

Sedgefield Country Club has been the host of the Wyndham Championship on and off since the mid-1940s, including each of the past 10 tournaments.

It represents one of the easier tour stops each season. Four of the past 10 winners reached 20-under par, and only once did less than 16-under claim the title.

Sedgefield is a short par-70 track checking in at 7,127 yards. Length really isn’t a big factor. We’ve seen shorter hitters like Simpson and Ryan Moore win here.

Overall, this is basically a course where players just need to get the tee shot in play, and then it turns into a wedge contest.

With the lack of driving emphasis, players who struggle with accuracy off the tee have been able to club down here and take advantage. With the driver nullified, we can focus on approach and short game this week.

The Field

As mentioned earlier, the 2011 champion Webb Simpson opened as the favorite at 12-1. He’s followed by the defending champion Henrik Stenson and Hideki Matsuyama at 16-1.

Brandt Snedeker, Shane Lowry, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Ryan Moore and Billy Horschel are in the next group, coming in between 22-1 and 28-1.

So, yeah, this is a loaded group heading into the last week of the PGA regular season.

All odds as of Monday evening.

The Favorites

Simpson and Stenson check every box for this course. Both have won here and tend to thrive on second-shot golf courses. But I’m not going to bet Simpson at any tournament as a favorite, and Stenson has been battling injury problems the past couple of months. So that opens up a few names further down the board.

Matsuyama is in a similar boat to Stenson. He’s been injured and struggling with form. So I’m making my first play in that next group.

Rafa Cabrera-Bello (25-1) is where my card will start. He’s entering the Wyndham playing as well as anyone after a solid final round at the PGA Championship got him into the top 10.

He’s also still trying to impress Ryder Cup captain Thomas Bjorn and work his way into the European squad. Combine all that with the chance at a first win on the PGA Tour, and there’s plenty of motivation for RCB to play well this week.

I like a top-five play on Cabrera-Bello in the 5-1 range as well.

Mid-Tier

After RCB, I’m dropping further down the board to Steve Stricker at 55-1. Stricker should fit well here with his wedge play and short game. We’ve seen him at a smaller number in better fields than this throughout the summer.

We also know that if someone over 50 years old is going to win on the PGA Tour, this is the spot. Davis Love III accomplished that feat in 2015.

Next up is Julian Suri at 60-1. He’s played well in his past two starts at the majors, finishing inside the top 30. His approach game was in especially good form last week, gaining 7.2 strokes over an elite field.

It wasn’t long ago that Suri was nearly victorious in Europe, fumbling a chance to claim the Open de France title with a double bogey on 18, which left him a shot behind Alex Noren.

In this field, he’s more than capable of contending.

 

My last two plays in this range are players many of us thought would grab a win at some point this year, but have fallen off the radar in the past couple of months.

Peter Uihlein (80-1) and Chesson Hadley (90-1) both popped up for me here. Uihlein struggled at the PGA, but in this weak of a field, I was expecting a number in the 50-1 to 66-1 range.

Over the past couple of months, his approach game improved, and he had gained strokes in four straight events before the PGA Championship.

Hadley was getting odds in the 30-1 range in fields of this quality just a few months ago, so this is a buy-low spot.

He had 17 straight weeks outside of the majors where he gained strokes with the approach, so I’m willing to ignore a poor PGA Championship from him.

Hadley’s weakness is usually off the tee, but we’ve already discussed why that should be minimized this week. He’s also been a better putter on bermuda greens than bentgrass, so getting back to that surface this week should help.

I’ll be look for top-fives on all of these players in the 10-1 to 18-1 range.

Longshots

Weak fields can lead to random winners, and the Wyndham is no exception. Davis Love and Arjun Atwal have won this event in the past eight years at 500-1, so this place is as good as any on tour to find a real longshot.

My first dip into the triple digits is with Jamie Lovemark at 100-1. Lovemark had some good results in the Florida swing early in the year, but has since cooled off.

A lot like Hadley, this is a buy-low spot for me. Lovemark has more talent than many of the guys who have half his odds. The recent numbers aren’t there for him, so he’s definitely a guy who could miss the cut, but at these odds, I think he’s worth the risk. I’ll also be looking at a top-five play in the 20-1 range.

The last guy on my card is Wes Bryan at 200-1. He’s one of the worst guys on tour off the tee, so there are only like three or four courses he can actually win on. But Sedgefield is one of them. Bryan is a good wedge player and has one of the best short games on tour, so with the driver minimized this week, I think he’s worth a look at a big number.

Bryan will be a top-20 play for me at +725 on Sportsbook. I’ll also add Robert Garrigus at +650 and Stuart Appleby at 21-1 to finish in the top 20.

I don’t think either will make enough birdies to actually win, but they could put together good weeks on a shorter course.

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