2019 British Open Matchup Bets: Matt Kuchar vs. Jason Day

Credit:

Kyle Terada, USA TODAY Sports

  • The 2019 British Open begins on Thursday, July 18 at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland.
  • Justin Bailey uses metrics from FantasyLabs to break down the Matt Kuchar vs. Jason Day betting matchup.

In this piece, I’ll be using the golf metrics in the FantasyLabs PGA Models as well as other golf metrics in search of potentially exploitable individual betting matchups for the 2019 British Open.

Let’s dive into this week’s action.

All odds as of Wednesday morning.

Matt Kuchar (-115) over Jason Day

Day isn’t typically known as a strong iron player, he’s more known for his elite short game and putting. However, his irons have been decent lately, gaining strokes on approach in three straight tournaments, while his short game and putting struggled in two of the past three.

I’d expect Day’s short game to progress back to his usual elite status, but that’s obviously no guarantee. And Kuchar is one of the guys I am highest on this week. Day hasn’t been played since the 3M Open in early July and Kuchar put together a respectable 20th-place finish at the Scottish Open last week.

Overall, Kuchar is just in better form than Day at the moment (Kuchar listed first):

  • Recent Adjusted Round Score: 67.9 vs. 69.2
  • Birdies per tournament: 18.7 vs. 15.3
  • Adjusted strokes on par 4s: -3.0 vs. -0.5

And over their past 24 rounds Kuchar rates higher in the other Strokes Gained metrics I am looking at:

  • Strokes Gained: Approach:  11th vs. 60th
  • Strokes Gained: Short Game: 13th vs. 60th

 

Day has actually been consistent at British Opens, making every cut, but it’s been the same story for Kuchar, making every cut since 2012. I’ll ride the hot hand with Kuchar, who I think also has a better all-around game.

I’d bet this to -130. This is the only bet I have locked in as of now, but I may be adding more picks into the app as we get closer to the tournament starting.

Note: Strokes Gained data via Fantasy National

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