A Rory McIlroy Masters-style hangover is not going to be possible for writers or golfers this week.
Instead, the PGA Tour will push one of its best courses on tour to the week right after Augusta.
Originally built in 1969, Harbour Town is a Pete Dye track that accentuates the strategic concepts you might expect from one of his courses. Dye received help on the project from Jack Nicklaus, giving the then-young American his first taste of working on a property.
Tight, tree-lined fairways forge this path of a less-than-driver appeal on most holes, although the real difference-maker for me came down to the massive increase in second-shot expectations from 125-200 yards.
That distribution yields a unique split. It minimizes distance when most holes offer a club-down option as the optimal route and enhances mid-iron play for those who often find themselves beaten by the world's elite players because of distance.
Let's dive into my RBC Heritage predictions and PGA Tour picks from my model.
RBC Heritage Predictions, Picks
Russell Henley (+2400)
In most weeks, it's a race to get Russell Henley tickets in before Monday ends because of the strong market support he receives.
I've long said that the American is one of the more undervalued golfers in the world, and it's these short, positional golf courses that give him the best upside potential.
My model sees that factor when we dive into his multiple top-five statistical grades across the seven categories I ran, including second-place finishes in In-Event Correlation and Weighted Scoring.
The overall grade isn't perfect because of two slip-ups in his last five starts.
Still, upside is what we shoot for in the outright market, which makes Henley the perfect candidate to target if we're looking for a prototypical course fit who excels with his data.
The overall grade has this 24-1 price closer to reality. However, the upside marks make him 17-1 in my sheet. Any 20-1s you can find would still be enough value.
Tommy Fleetwood (+2500)
Tommy Fleetwood has been very vocal about his mini driver and how it suits a course like Harbor Town.
That ability to go to a club he trusts is extremely helpful when the venue is seen as a club-down track and might give him some boosted distance over the field that he normally doesn't have if that club becomes a weapon for him.
Fleetwood jumps from a baseline projection of 26th in this field to 10th at Harbour Town in projected driving because of his overall accuracy. The weighted proximity sees a similar trajectory, jumping from 50th on a generic course to 22nd here.
Those are the margins you need to find if you want to locate hidden win equity, and I remain bullish on his long-term outlook after he finally got himself across the finish line last year at another reduced test at the TOUR Championship.
I'll be curious to see how he handles pressure the next time he gets himself into true contention. A lot of the recent results have been backdoor runs and non-contention chances.
Maverick McNealy (+4500)
While he wasn't my pick to win last week, Maverick McNealy turned into my biggest exposure at Augusta with all the made cut and matchup routes I took.
That train ride was not fun through 18 holes when it looked like McNealy was going to miss the cut, but a solid second round and subsequent move up the leaderboard over the weekend helped him churn out a top-20 finish and cash pretty much every iteration of my bets.
We've seen McNealy's potential on strategic tracks in the past (think Pebble Beach and here). My model delivered a ridiculously low 29-1 price as his proper going rate, although I'm not going to fight it after the profit he delivered last week.
A small bet of around 0.10-0.15 units is enough for me to continue the sweat into a new event for a golfer who ranked top-five for Weighted Strokes Gained Total and In-Event Correlation. Those two categories are 100% calculated toward his course fit.
Justin Thomas (+6500)
I was fortunate enough to hit an outright on Justin Thomas here last year at 25-1. Ironically, I've been chasing that feeling again for the last 12 months after providing about 15 close calls and countless second-place finishes.
Thomas may be the spark we need to get back on track.
Now, the American isn't in perfect form entering the week. You don't need me to tell you that when you dive into a slow start to action in 2026. Thomas made his first start of the year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in early March and has been a mixed bag since then.
Maybe this is too optimistic, but his eighth-place finish at the Players and the made cut last week at the Masters is encouraging for someone my model has wanted to fade weekly to start the year.
Those deviations typically mean the course's fit is as pristine as it gets. We just need to see if he's ready to compete at the highest level again. At 60-1, I'm fine taking that gamble.
Top 5 Overall Ranks in My RBC Heritage Model
Henley ranks second for pure upside. Thomas and McNealy landed just outside the top five in all iterations of the build.
You can get the entire list inside my model here.
RBC Heritage Matchup of the Week
Brian Harman (-136) Over Max Homa
I gave all my pre-event matchups this week on the Action Network Podcast if you want to dive deeper into my entire card.
You can also get a more complete breakdown of everything in my free Discord channel. I love answering questions from everyone and trying to see where we can find value on a given slate to account for the books you may have available.
I'm going to go with the juiced-up wager of the group for this selection because I think it makes for a nice conversation about when laying a big price is worth it in golf betting.
The first thing you'll notice (and it pops off the page) is Homa's Sunday run at the Masters to crack the top-10. That's his third-straight top-12 finish at Augusta in as many years.
I think the initial lean is to assert that Homa is back and has regained some of his previous form over the years, although that hasn't been an uncommon practice for him between the Masters and RBC Heritage.
Harman looks to be one of the chalkier options on the board for bettors. My model is much less bullish on him than we've seen in many past iterations.
Honestly, this is one of the worst versions of him entering the week. However, not all markets are built equally, and I'm not worried enough to remove him from consideration in a market where safety and course history will carry a lot of weight.
Do I think Harman wins this event? Probably not. That's why I built a different card in the outright market, although safety is never a bad thing to target, even if it comes within a no-cut tournament.
I'll bank on that safety here and hope we see a top-30 finish.
What we need to avoid is Homa continuing his trajectory from Augusta. If that happens, this bet starts to shrink fast since the upside marks for Harman are somewhat capped.
For reference, here's where my model ranked Harman during all iterations of this contest between 2021-26:
- 2026: 29th · Eventual Finish: ?
- 2025 : 8th · Eventual Finish: 3rd
- 2024: 19th · Eventual Finish: 12th
- 2023: 37th · Eventual Finish: 7th
- 2022: 30th · Eventual Finish: 35th
- 2021: 16th · Eventual Finish: 13th
