Bailey’s 2019 Byron Nelson Championship Matchup Bets: Keith Mitchell vs. Marc Leishman, More

Bailey’s 2019 Byron Nelson Championship Matchup Bets: Keith Mitchell vs. Marc Leishman, More article feature image

I used to start this article with: “I’m not much of a longshot bettor when it comes to the PGA Tour, so I tend to focus on head-to-head matchups instead.”

But, I actually started betting outrights because, well, it’s fun. However, I still plan on supplementing outright bets with matchups.

In this piece, I’ll be using the golf metrics in the FantasyLabs PGA Models as well as other golf metrics in search of potentially exploitable matchups each week.

Let’s dive into this week’s card at the Byron Nelson Championship.

All odds as of Tuesday afternoon.

Keith Mitchell (+125) over Marc Leishman 

Leishman has been the superior golfer to Mitchell over the past 75 weeks with his 68.7 Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) compared to Mitchell’s 69.8 LT Adj Rd Score.

However, their other metrics in the FantasyLabs Models in the same time frame aren’t that far off (Leishman listed first):

  • Birdies per tournament: 15.2 vs. 14.9
  • Eagles per tournament: 0.5 vs. 0.4
  • Adjusted strokes on par 5s: -4.5 vs. -5.1
  • Adjusted strokes on par 4s: -0.2 vs. +0.3

Mitchell will also be entering this tournament in slightly better form, possessing a 69.2 recent Adj Rd Score and -6.5 adjusted strokes on par 5s, compared to Leishman’s 69.8 recent Adj Rd Score and -4.5 adjusted strokes on par 5s.

I’m really weighing par-5 efficiency at this course and Mitchell certainly has the edge in that category in the Labs models and on the Strokes Gained side, ranking seventh in par-5 efficiency over his past 50 rounds, compared to 33rd for Leishman.

Mitchell’s downfall comes down to his putting, but he putts well on Bermuda greens. Even so, he’ll have the edge on Leishman from tee-to-green as he ranks sixth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over his past 50 rounds, while Leishman checks in at 25th, respectively.

I’d only bet this down to +115.

 

Abraham Ancer (+105) over Daniel Berger 

Berger hasn’t been great this year, sporting four missed cuts, along with finishing 33rd or worse in all but two tournaments. Ancer also has four missed cuts this year,  but he also has a couple of top-30 and top-19 finishes.

And in the long-term he’s got a slight edge in most metrics I am weighing this week (Ancer listed first):

  • Eagles per tournament: 0.3 vs. 0.2
  • Birdies per tournament: 13.1 vs. 12.6
  • Adjusted strokes on par 4s: -0.5 vs. +0.6
  • Adjusted strokes on par 5s: -4.2 vs. -4.1

The par 5s are a wash, but the par 4s could come into play for this matchup as Ancer leads Berger by nearly a stroke. There are also six par 4s that check in between 400-450 yards, giving Ancer the edge over the past 50 rounds, ranking 25th in par-4 efficiency from that range while Berger ranks 59th.

I’d only bet this down to +100.

Note: Strokes Gained data via Fantasy National