Mears: Why I’m Buying Adam Scott at Bethpage and Other Underdog Matchup Bets

May 15, 2019 04:12 PM EDT

Photo credit: Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Adam Scott

  • I created a golf model based on past PGA Championship data to identify head-to-head betting opportunities for this week's tournament.
  • Below are my five favorite underdog bets, including Adam Scott vs. Paul Casey and Tiger Woods vs. Justin Rose.

Using the FantasyLabs Trends tool, I backtested historical PGA Championship data to create a model for this week’s tournament. Using that data, I’ve handicapped the 100-plus head-to-head matchup props, with the ones I’m most interested in betting listed below.

Adam Scott (+105) over Paul Casey

The major to bet on Casey is the Masters; he’s struggled relative to expectations in the other three. He has just one top 10 in his 16 PGA appearances, and last year he missed the cut.

Further, since my theme is fading golfers with poor recent play, Casey is an easy target. He’s had some strong finishes lately, including a fourth at the Wells Fargo and a win at Valspar, but he also missed the cut badly in the two big fields with tough courses at the Masters and Players. He shot opening rounds of 81 and 78 in those, and he was terrible with his irons and short game.

Scott, meanwhile, has five top-five finishes at the PGA, including a third at last year’s event. Further, he’s in solid form currently, especially with his driver and long irons.

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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