Jennings: What the Markets Are Telling Us About a Few Big Names at the 2019 U.S. Open

Jun 13, 2019 08:00 PM EDT
Credit:

Aaron Doster, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jordan Spieth

  • The 2019 U.S. Open takes place from June 13 to June 16 at Pebble Beach in California.
  • Peter Jennings takes a deep look at the betting and DFS markets to identify golfers speculators are bullish and bearish on at Pebble Beach.

One best practice to get into when speculating on golf is to take a big-picture look at the market and compare prices across different formats.

For example, if Tommy Fleetwood is $700 cheaper on DraftKings than Francesco Molinari but is a -170 favorite over Molinari in a matchup, it tells you that the market is bullish on Fleetwood going into the event.

Let’s take a look at what the market is telling us about a few golfers ahead of the 2019 U.S. Open.

For more of Peter Jennings’ U.S. Open coverage, check out his DFS Model Preview here.

Bull

Rory McIlroy and Webb Simpson

Rory is the outright favorite at one of the most efficient golf markets and has the highest matchup odds. Yet, he is the fourth-most expensive golfer on DraftKings and is $1,100 cheaper than Brooks Koepka.

McIlroy is coming off a win last weekend, but its pretty clear that bettors are bullish on his chances at Pebble Beach. He will be a chalky pick but represents the most equity at the top of the field in DFS.

Webb Simpson is generating some buzz heading into Pebble Beach and is now in 40-1 at the Westgate. He is a -170 favorite over Tony Finau in the betting market but is $700 cheaper on DraftKings. He is a -161 favorite against Phil Mickelson, but is $500 cheaper on DraftKings. Against Justin Rose, who is $2,000 more on DraftKings, Simpson is -110. Bettors are expecting big things from Webb this weekend.

Bear

Jordan Spieth

Spieth has been a huge dog in the betting markets relative to his DraftKings price for about a month now. During this time Spieth has been the best putter on tour — by far. He’s No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Putting during this stretch and has finished 29th, 3rd, 8th and 7th over his last four tournaments.

The markets are anticipating scoring regression which is why he is still a huge dog in most of his matchups this week.

  • Dustin Johnson ($11,300) -226 vs Spieth ($10,300) +176
  • Brooks Koepka ($11,600) -182 vs Spieth ($10,300) +142
  • Rory Mcilroy ($10,500) -235 vs Spieth ($10,300) +180
  • Spieth ($10,300) +147 vs Patrick Cantlay ($10,000) -186
  • Spieth ($10,300) -112 vs Paul Casey ($8,300) -118
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