2021 AT&T Byron Nelson Picks: Our Best Outright Bets at TPC Craig Ranch
Steve Dykes/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Kuchar
With the second major of the season just around the corner, the PGA TOUR heads to a new venue this week for the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson. One of the great things about betting on golf is that every week is different. No two fields, courses or tournaments are the same week to week. It’s like you get to be a bite-sized sports season every seven days. It’s truly beautiful.
Which players does Team GolfBet have their eye on this week for an outright bet? Check out our favorite win-bets at the AT&T Byron Nelson below:
Scottie Scheffler (+1900)
I expect this to be a popular play this week, considering Scheffler owns some very Spiethian vibes at this event. The 24-year-old first played here at the age of 17, posting his final three scores in the 60s and finishing in a share of 22nd place – good enough to beat the likes of Martin Kaymer, who was only in between winning The Players and the U.S. Open that week.
While most players use a return to a specific course to give them a little mojo for the week, Scheffler might have it here – even at a different venue – just based on familiarity with the community and the tournament staff. On a week with so many unknowns, that’s as good a reason as any.
Even with some big names in the field, this event feels like it could wind up being the domain of a first-time winner – and few are more deserving of a first victory than Scheffler. Also, I went down the rabbit hole of the dark web and found that 9-year-old “Scott Alexander Scheffler” won the nine-hole, coed, age 7-9 division of the Metro Area Championship by seven strokes right at this very same TPC Craig Ranch.
Yup, those are actual things that happened – him winning here and me actually researching it.
Matt Kuchar (+7000)
I’m going to take a stab on Matt Kuchar in this range. Kuchar hasn’t really played much of a factor since the restart about a year ago, but he’s found his game the past month.
Kuchar has three top-20s in his last four starts, including a couple of solid results in Texas with a third at Match Play and a 12th at Valero. With his approach game coming back around and his usual strength on the greens, this could be a spot for the veteran to play well.
Bryson DeChambeau (+800)
I typically don’t backing players this high up the board and I know it’s not a sexy pick, but from what I have gathered this week, everything sets up well for Bryson.
This appears to be a course where he can simply set up to bomb it off the tee, with little to no trouble around most landing areas. He will be able to reach all of the Par 5s with ease, and will be one player in the field that can challenge both of the drive-able Par 4s without much additional thought.
One thing that I continue to harp on is just how good Bryson is with the flat stick. He ranks 38th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting this season, and with the large greens around TPC Craig Ranch, it could turn into a bit of a putting contest.
I don’t like the odds we are getting this week, but I believe DeChambeau will be the winner, possibly going away, which locks him in as my favorite outright for the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Sergio Garcia (+5000)
Against my better judgment, I’m going back to Sergio once again. Hear me out: Sergio was playing excellent golf prior to back-to-back missed cuts, and the pressure of Augusta National seemed to have gotten to him in the 2021 Masters.
However, before his most recent victory at the 2020 Sanderson Farms Championship, the Spaniard was also coming off back-to-back missed cuts. Relative to the guys around him on the oddsboard, I see a lot of value with Garcia here.
He still stripes it off of the tee and can take advantage of the four short par-5s and drivable par-4s.
Yes, he is a horrific putter, but bentgrass is his best surface and he has an excellent history in the state of Texas, having won the Byron Nelson twice. Just close your eyes and bet it.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+2100)
It feels as though Fitz has the reputation of being more of a tough course guy, but believe it or not he ranks 30th on the PGA TOUR in Birdie or Better percentage this season. He has really been lighting it up.
A lot of this is thanks to his elite putter, as he ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Putting across his last 48, 36, 16 and 12 rounds. We always knew about the Englishman’s prowess with the flat stick, however, it’s his ball-striking that has vastly improved, as he also ranks ninth in this field in SG: Off-the-Tee, and 11th in both SG: Tee-to-Green and Ball-Striking across his past 36 rounds.
Fitz has gotten himself up to No. 17 in the world and is in the midst of the best stretch of golf in his young career. He finished T-4 at the RBC Heritage, T-9 at THE PLAYERS, T-10 at the API, T-11 at the WGC Concession and T-5 at Genesis. That doesn’t even include his respectable T-34 at Augusta as well. Whichever way you slice it, the man is locked in right now and it’s simply a matter of time before he posts his first career win stateside.
This would be a great week to get it done, as a hot putter could carry him, while the bigger greens at TPC Craig Ranch will mitigate his recent approach play doldrums.
Marc Leishman (+3400)
The legend of his value in the wind, at least as we know it in the U.S. today, was launched at the Korn Ferry Tour’s WNB Golf Classic in 2008. In a gale in Midland, Texas, he prevailed by 11 strokes at 21-under 267.
Remarkably, while known mudders don’t always deliver on their promise in inclement conditions, the Aussie is as close to a lock as it gets when the trousers are flapping.
The winds will front the equation by the weekend at TPC Craig Ranch where confident ball-striking is required on a largely unknown test.
Ryan Palmer (+4000)
The winning score this week should eclipse 20-under par and with little trouble to worry about off the tee, I’m looking for bombers who can make a ton of birdies.
Over the last 50 rounds, Palmer ranks 9th in this field in Birdie or Better percentage and 29th in driving distance. That’s going to be the recipe for success this week. If he can get the putter going like it was earlier in the season, I like his chances to win this event at +4000.