Updated 3M Open Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bets for Callum Tarren, Tony Finau, More

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The annual golf schedule has a rhythm and cadence to it. There’s the California cool of some brilliant courses and scenery on the West Coast Swing, which leads into the sunny slog of a brutally difficult Florida Swing, which in turn leads into a familiar brand of hopscotch around and through the major championships.

Sure, this schedule always changes a bit from year to year, but our collective cognition of these dates supersedes any modern calendar for those within the game. You know you’re entrenched in golf when the answer to the question, “What week is this?” is not, say, “It’s the week of May 9,” but instead, “It’s Byron Nelson week.”

Then again, there are times when the schedule meanders off the familiar path. Even if this week’s 3M Open has settled into its spot directly after The Open Championship, even if we’re not physically making the trip from St. Andrews to TPC Twin Cities, just the thought alone is enough for a little culture shock.

Over the past few years, we’ve seen Matthew Wolff and Cameron Champ win this event, while Bryson DeChambeau, Tony Finau and Jhonattan Vegas have come close. Those names alone are enough to stoke a big-hitter narrative for this one, but the truth is, there are plenty of guys who aren’t mashers and have contended here, as well.

The stats back it up. According to the Data Golf website, in 2019, the first year of this tournament, driving distance was 290.7 yards, five more than the average event, while driving accuracy was 71.5 percent, up 4.7 percent. In 2020, distance was 0.5 yards more, while accuracy was 2.1 percent higher. And last year, distance was up 2.9 yards, and accuracy was 2.3 percent more.

All of which tells us that driving the ball is important here, but not simply long or straight – a combination of the two is optimal.

Of course, we could say that about every single course in the world, since long and straight is usually a solid formula off the tee, but it’s more relevant on this venue than many others.

Let’s get right to the picks, as we should have plenty of options warming up and ready to go when called upon.

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Outright Winner

One player to win the tournament.

Callum Tarren (+13000)

This one is a bullpen game, folks. You baseball fans know what I mean. Without an ace – or even a fourth starter – rested and ready to go, managers will often start the game by sending a relief pitcher out to the mound, then following up with a series of other relief pitchers, hoping they can collectively do enough to help the team win the game. That’s what I’m looking for here.

Last week was one where I sent out an ace and was hoping he could go the distance. (To complete the analogy, Rory McIlroy lost the shutout and then lost the game, all in the bottom of the ninth inning.) This week, I’m putting together a bullpen of unheralded players with decent prices and hope one of ‘em does enough to help the team win.

It all starts with Tarren, who contended at last month’s U.S. Open for a couple of days and seems to have gotten his confidence going ever since, with a T-6 at the John Deere Classic and a T-22 at last week’s Barracuda Championship, where he ranked inside the top-10 in both driving distance and greens in regulation.

From there, I’ll send some combination of Emiliano Grillo (+6500), Wyndham Clark (+6500), Beau Hossler (+8000), Kramer Hickok (+13000), Austin Cook (+20000) and Brandon Hagy (+25000) – many of whom I’ll list for other categories below – to the mound in hopes that one of ‘em has that electric stuff needed to get the job done.

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Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done options.

Tony Finau (+1400)

I’d expect this to be a popular play, as those suffering a major championship hangover can simply list the pre-tourney favorite for pool purposes and not have to worry much about grinding over stats and data. Of course, the idea that Finau fits the profile as a “safe” pick should tell us everything we need to know about this week’s event, since he’s usually as volatile as they come.

That said, he’s now made the cut in 10 of his last 11 starts, with top-30s in five of his last six. If you’ve still got him available for OADs, there’s no point in saving him for something else later on in the schedule.

Hideki Matsuyama (+1600)

I promise, my OAD plays aren’t simply going to be a perusal of the top of the odds board, but fresh off a final-round 67 at St. Andrews, maybe Matsuyama found a little something in his game to bring back to the U.S. with him. He’s actually been much more volatile than Finau this year, with a dizzying amalgam of results, and he’s only played the week following a major once in the past four years, but again, if you’ve still got him on the board for OADs, he’s worth a shot here.

Chris Gotterup (+5000)

This year’s Haskins Award winner has settled nicely into life as a professional, with a T-4 at the John Deere and two other made cuts in five total starts. He certainly has the game to compete and contend at the highest level, as he’s already shown. If you don’t want to use one of the bigger names – or don’t have them left on your board – then Gotterup should make for a nice contrarian play, especially in OADs where your fellow poolsters aren’t paying as much attention as they should be.

Garrick Higgo (+15000)

Cameron Champ is the defending, uh, champ at the 3M Open. He owns one of the strangest – and most impressive – results tables on the PGA TOUR over the past half-decade, with three wins and exactly zero other top-five finishes in his career. (Insert your favorite Ron Burgundy “I’m not even mad, that’s amazing” meme here.)

There aren’t many who could pull off the high-ceiling/low-floor combo of Champ, but I’m starting to believe that Higgo, who’s in a similar spot in his career, could be another guy who offers brief flashes of brilliance amidst months of lackluster performances. Good luck trying to catch him on the right week, but if you’re looking to throw an absolute dart, he does have some big-time upside.

Sahith Theegala (+2500) & Erik Van Rooyen (+8000)

I’m grouping these two together due to injury concerns. While I didn’t see it and he didn’t mention anything in his post-round interview session on Sunday, there were some rumors that Theegala didn’t appear 100 percent healthy during the weekend rounds at St. Andrews. It’s just something to keep an eye on leading into this week. If he’s totally healthy, it’s tough not to really like him – not only for OADs, but even as an outright play at that number.

Meanwhile, Van Rooyen’s injury is more definitive, as he was a late withdrawal from The Open due to a neck injury. I’m less optimistic about him, but considering he owns some Minnesota ties and was my pick to win here a year ago, I’ll hold onto some hope that he’ll be healed up, but again, I’d wait to hear something from him before plugging him into any formats.

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Top-Five

One player to finish top-five.

Emiliano Grillo (+1200 for top-five)

You probably didn’t click here expecting to read a Grillo/Tommy Fleetwood comparison, but here goes nothing: For much of this year, Fleetwood was playing good-but-not-great golf, with a bunch of very solid results and no title contentions. He then finished T-5 at the PGA Championship, and while it can be argued he wasn’t quite in contention at the end of things, that result vaulted him to a pair of T-4s over the past two weeks.

All of which leads to Grillo, who’s had a similar type of year, only on a lesser level. If prognosticating tournaments is about trying to find players on the upswing, not the downswing, I like the potential in Grillo continuing to play some strong golf this week. He finished runner-up just a few weeks ago at the John Deere, and this could be a nice spot for a similar performance.

Top-10

One player to finish top-10.

Brendan Steele (+350 for top-10)

You’ve got to drive it well at TPC Twin Cities, and Steele is perennially one of the game’s better drivers of the ball, currently trailing only Jon Rahm, Cameron Young and Rory McIlroy in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. With top-10s in two of his last three starts, this feels like a nice spot for another strong result, especially against an inferior field.

Top-20

One player to finish top-20.

Brandon Matthews (+400 for top-20)

When asked to name the longest hitter in professional golf, some observers might list Bryson DeChambeau or Cameron Champ, but the answer might well be Matthews. The only reason his Korn Ferry driving distance of 320.0 isn’t longer is because he sometimes leaves driver in the locker room, because it’s too much club for him to use on the course. If he brandishes it this week, expect it to be a massive weapon.

Top-30

One player to finish top-30.

Harry Higgs

Raise your hand if you only watched last week’s Open Championship for the Higgs commercials. It’s good to see one of the game’s fan-friendly guys getting some love, but he’ll need the results to back it up, as Rickie Fowler could undoubtedly tell him. Coming off a T-11 at the Barracuda last week, we’ll see if he can step on the gas pedal here.

Top-40

One player to finish top-40.

Brandon Hagy (+240 for top-40)

My pick to win last week’s Barracuda Championship never really got things going, but on another course which should reward distance, I still like Hagy’s game. I’m more bullish on him over the long haul than the short term, but I do like a conservative play on him this week.

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Maverick McNealy

While I understand why McNealy is just a couple of points longer than Matsuyama or Sungjae Im in the outright market, that doesn’t mean I have to like it, so I won’t be chasing a guy who’s chasing his first win at the low price of +1800 this week.

That said, after missing his first two cuts of the year, he’s now finished 16th or better in three straight starts. I’ve often called him the Charles Howell III of the current generation – and that’s a compliment, as McNealy owns an uncommonly high floor, which makes him a nice DFS target for this one.

DFS Longshot

Justin Lower

Full disclosure: As usual, I’m writing this preview before DFS prices have been released, so there’s a chance that Lower’s T-8 at the Barbasol and T-16 at the Barracuda have priced him out of the “longshot” price range. Even if he costs a bit more than he has, Lower is a Midwest guy who should keep it going at this one, without a massive ownership in bigger contests.

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First-Round Leader

One player to post the low score Thursday.

Wyndham Clark (+6500 for FRL)

As mentioned above, Clark is part of the bullpen this week, as I’ll play him outright at a decent price, especially after some nice recent starts and a T-5 at this event three years ago. My favorite bet for him this week, though, is FRL. In recent starts, he’s opened with a 63 in Canada and a 66 in Hartford. Currently eighth on the PGA TOUR in first-round scoring average, I’d expect him to go low once again this Thursday.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players.

Beau Hossler (+8000)

His recent results are a mixed bag, and his history at this event isn’t anything too special, but I’ll call this one a hunchy play on Hossler, whom I like in all formats this week. Looking at other 80/1 outrights, I’d certainly play him in head-to-head matchups against the likes of Lanto Griffin, John Huh, Matthias Schwab and Austin Smotherman. I’ll sprinkle a little outright play on him and have him in some DFS lineups, as well.

Also Receiving Votes

Nick Hardy (+4500), Troy Merritt (+4500), Adam Svensson (+5500), Kramer Hickok (+13000), Lee Hodges (+15000), James Hahn (+15000), Austin Cook (+20000), Henrik Norlander (+25000)

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