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2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds & Picks: Top Bets & DFS Targets at Bay Hill

2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds & Picks: Top Bets & DFS Targets at Bay Hill article feature image
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Luke Walker/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Fitzpatrick.

Read more of Derek’s content over at RotoGrinders.


Click arrow to expand 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds via BetMGM

2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds

Golfer Odds
Jon Rahm +800
Rory McIlroy +1200
Scottie Scheffler +1600
Viktor Hovland +1600
Hideki Matsuyama +2500
Matt Fitzpatrick +2500
Sungjae Im +2500
Will Zalatoris +2500
Tyrrell Hatton +3000
Adam Scott +3300
Marc Leishman +3300
Billy Horschel +4000
Jason Kokrak +4000
Keith Mitchell +4000
Paul Casey +4000
Max Homa +4000
Sam Burns +4000
Gary Woodland +5000
Sergio Garcia +5000
Tommy Fleetwood +5000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5000
Jason Day +5000
Justin Rose +5000
Maverick McNealy +5000
Russell Henley +5000
Cameron Tringale +6600
Chris Kirk +6600
Talor Gooch +6600
Cameron Young +6600
Corey Conners +6600
Erik van Rooyen +6600
Keegan Bradley +6600
Luke List +6600
Seamus Power +6600
Kevin Na +8000
Lanto Griffin +8000
Sepp Straka +8000
Tom Hoge +8000
Denny McCarthy +8000
Lee Westwood +8000
Sebastian Munoz +8000
Si Woo Kim +8000
Aaron Wise +10000
Charles Howell III +10000
Ian Poulter +10000
Kevin Kisner +10000
Lucas Glover +10000
Matthew Wolff +10000
Patrick Reed +10000
Taylor Moore +10000
Thomas Pieters +10000
Adam Svensson +12500
Andrew Putnam +12500
Brendon Todd +12500
Carlos Ortiz +12500
Chez Reavie +12500
Dylan Frittelli +12500
K.H. Lee +12500
Kevin Streelman +12500
Lee Hodges +12500
Martin Laird +12500
Matt Jones +12500
Nick Taylor +12500
Pat Perez +12500
Rickie Fowler +12500
Sahith Theegala +12500
Sam Ryder +12500
Taylor Pendrith +12500
Troy Merritt +12500
Aaron Rai +15000
Beau Hossler +15000
Danny Willett +15000
Garrick Higgo +15000
Lucas Herbert +15000
Nicolai Hojgaard +15000
Takumi Kanaya +15000
Zach Johnson +15000
Alex Smalley +15000
Cam Davis +15000
Davis Riley +15000
Greyson Sigg +15000
J.J. Spaun +15000
Patrick Rodgers +15000
Patton Kizzire +15000
Brendan Steele +20000
Danny Lee +20000
Doug Ghim +20000
Hudson Swafford +20000
Michael Thompson +20000
Min Woo Lee +20000
Sean O’Hair +20000
Branden Grace +20000
Matt Wallace +20000
Scott Stallings +20000
Cameron Champ +25000
Henrik Stenson +25000
Rory Sabbatini +25000
Trey Mullinax +25000
Vince Whaley +25000
Adam Schenk +30000
Brandt Snedeker +30000
Hayden Buckley +30000
Nick Watney +30000
Stephan Jaeger +30000
Charl Schwartzel +35000
Graeme McDowell +35000
James Piot +35000
Kevin Tway +35000
Padraig Harrington +35000
Peter Malnati +35000
Adam Long +40000
Davis Thompson +40000
Henrik Norlander +40000
Jonathan Byrd +40000
Anirban Lahiri +50000
John Pak +50000
Paul Barjon +50000
Sam Bennett +50000
G. Koch +100000
Bet the Arnold Palmer Invitational at BetMGM and get a risk-free bet up to $1,000.

We are only a week away from THE PLAYERS (sorry for yelling, but the PGA TOUR insists).

The second leg of the Florida swing is one of my favorites, as we visit Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This is one of the toughest non-major tests on tour, as it has ranked in the top 10 in difficulty in each of the last three years.

The course is a par-72 that stretches nearly 7,500 yards. The four par 5s are scorable, while golfers will look to hold on for dear life on the par 3s and par 4s.

The course had a redesign a few years back, which resulted in fewer trees on the property and significantly wider fairways. This would seemingly make the course easier, but that hasn’t been the case.

With the changes, the superintendent and his team have cut down the rough leading into the hazards. This creates a risk/reward type of approach off the tee, as golfers can be more aggressive but it comes with more risk.

The green complexes at Bay Hill are quite large (7,500 sq. feet on average) and feature TifEagle Bermudagrass. They are firm and they are fast (usually 12+ on the stimpmeter). Water is in play on eight of the 18 holes, and wind will play a factor, especially on the weekend.

Long iron play will be critical, as nearly 30% of approach shots will come from at least 200 yards. Ideally, we want to target golfers that don’t have any weaknesses. Easy enough, right?

With the course preview out of the way, let’s dive into the picks.

Favorite Outright: Matt Fitzpatrick +3000

The golfer formerly known as Matthew has yet to win on the PGA Tour, but he has racked up seven wins in his professional career. The most recent win came at the Andalucía Masters last October.

While he’s not a bomber by any means, he routinely gains strokes off the tee thanks to his accuracy. Over the last 12 months, he’s top 20 in this field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and good drive percentage. He’s a good iron player, he’s confident around the greens, and he’s the best putter on bermuda greens in this field.

Fitzpatrick also has the enticing combination of good form (T12 or better in four straight starts) and course history (T10 or better in three straight appearances).

Bet Fitzpatrick & Horschel at Caesars and get a $5,000 risk-free first bet.

Longshot: Billy Horschel +5000

I genuinely enjoy watching Horschel play golf.

Well, let me rephrase. I genuinely enjoy watching Horschel on the golf course. He’s not afraid to wear his heart on his sleeve and he tilts as hard as anyone.

We know Horschel loves the Florida stretch (he’s a Gator), and he’s finally showing signs of life with his ball striking. For the longest time, his short game was the sole reason for his high finishes. However, he gained 4.7 strokes with his ball striking at the WM Phoenix Open and 9.3 at last week’s Honda Classic.

If Horschel can match up a good ball striking week with a good short game week, he could easily find himself in contention on Sunday.

Matchup: Ian Poulter -110 over Erik Van Rooyen (DraftKings)

Betting matchups is the exact opposite of betting outrights. Consistency is key in matchups, while upside is key in outrights.

Poulter has been a grinder his entire career. He’s one of the best on tour on and around the greens and he’s going to give his best effort all four rounds. He’s made 11 straight cuts at this event and has finished no worse than T41 during that stretch.

EVR might be more likely to contend, but his range of outcomes is much wider. He can have a short fuse at times, which can be a negative on a course with so many hazards in play.

DFS Value: Lanto Griffin $7,100 (DraftKings) / $8,800 (FanDuel)

When it comes to DFS value this week, Griffin sticks out like a sore thumb. He has rattled off five straight top-40 finishes on tour and is 2-for-2 at this event with finishes of T21 and T36.

Griffin is one of those golfers who doesn’t do anything spectacularly well, but he doesn’t have a major weakness. He gains off the tee and on approach, and he’s an above-average putter.

If you are a fan of putting splits, Griffin is 14th in this field in strokes gained putting on bermuda greens. He’s affordable, he’s consistent, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he’s in the mix on Sunday.

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