2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds & Picks: Top Bets & DFS Targets at Bay Hill

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We are only a week away from THE PLAYERS (sorry for yelling, but the PGA TOUR insists).

The second leg of the Florida swing is one of my favorites, as we visit Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This is one of the toughest non-major tests on tour, as it has ranked in the top 10 in difficulty in each of the last three years.

The course is a par-72 that stretches nearly 7,500 yards. The four par 5s are scorable, while golfers will look to hold on for dear life on the par 3s and par 4s.

The course had a redesign a few years back, which resulted in fewer trees on the property and significantly wider fairways. This would seemingly make the course easier, but that hasn't been the case.

With the changes, the superintendent and his team have cut down the rough leading into the hazards. This creates a risk/reward type of approach off the tee, as golfers can be more aggressive but it comes with more risk.

The green complexes at Bay Hill are quite large (7,500 sq. feet on average) and feature TifEagle Bermudagrass. They are firm and they are fast (usually 12+ on the stimpmeter). Water is in play on eight of the 18 holes, and wind will play a factor, especially on the weekend.

Long iron play will be critical, as nearly 30% of approach shots will come from at least 200 yards. Ideally, we want to target golfers that don't have any weaknesses. Easy enough, right?

With the course preview out of the way, let's dive into the picks.

Favorite Outright: Matt Fitzpatrick +3000

The golfer formerly known as Matthew has yet to win on the PGA Tour, but he has racked up seven wins in his professional career. The most recent win came at the Andalucía Masters last October.

While he's not a bomber by any means, he routinely gains strokes off the tee thanks to his accuracy. Over the last 12 months, he's top 20 in this field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and good drive percentage. He's a good iron player, he's confident around the greens, and he's the best putter on bermuda greens in this field.

Fitzpatrick also has the enticing combination of good form (T12 or better in four straight starts) and course history (T10 or better in three straight appearances).

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Longshot: Billy Horschel +5000

I genuinely enjoy watching Horschel play golf.

Well, let me rephrase. I genuinely enjoy watching Horschel on the golf course. He's not afraid to wear his heart on his sleeve and he tilts as hard as anyone.

We know Horschel loves the Florida stretch (he's a Gator), and he's finally showing signs of life with his ball striking. For the longest time, his short game was the sole reason for his high finishes. However, he gained 4.7 strokes with his ball striking at the WM Phoenix Open and 9.3 at last week's Honda Classic.

If Horschel can match up a good ball striking week with a good short game week, he could easily find himself in contention on Sunday.

Matchup: Ian Poulter -110 over Erik Van Rooyen (DraftKings)

Betting matchups is the exact opposite of betting outrights. Consistency is key in matchups, while upside is key in outrights.

Poulter has been a grinder his entire career. He's one of the best on tour on and around the greens and he's going to give his best effort all four rounds. He's made 11 straight cuts at this event and has finished no worse than T41 during that stretch.

EVR might be more likely to contend, but his range of outcomes is much wider. He can have a short fuse at times, which can be a negative on a course with so many hazards in play.

DFS Value: Lanto Griffin $7,100 (DraftKings) / $8,800 (FanDuel)

When it comes to DFS value this week, Griffin sticks out like a sore thumb. He has rattled off five straight top-40 finishes on tour and is 2-for-2 at this event with finishes of T21 and T36.

Griffin is one of those golfers who doesn't do anything spectacularly well, but he doesn't have a major weakness. He gains off the tee and on approach, and he's an above-average putter.

If you are a fan of putting splits, Griffin is 14th in this field in strokes gained putting on bermuda greens. He's affordable, he's consistent, and it shouldn't surprise anyone if he's in the mix on Sunday.

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