2023 3M Open Round 4 Picks: How to Bet Hideki Matsuyama, Vincent Norrman and Chad Ramey
Pictured: Hideki Matsuyama. (Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Playoffs!? Are we talking about playoffs!?
You better believe it! We have only one event left before the top 70 players in the FedExCup standings make their final push for the $17,500,000 grand prize.
How realistic is that outcome for the golfers teeing it up Sunday? Not very. But there's still a chance and plenty to play for during the final round of the 3M Open.
Every shot matters during this closing stretch, so let's see which players are ripe for a Sunday move to better their playoff chances.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
After firing a first-round seven-under to propel himself into second place, the wheels fell off Friday and Saturday for Hideki Matsuyama. He's one over through 36 holes and in 39th entering the final round.
Matsuyama's -3.25 shots ball striking in round three graded as the fourth-worst total for the day, but it is not as if flashes of brilliance haven't been there throughout the week.
My model believes he's underachieved his projected scoring output by 1.2 strokes, which generates an intriguing edge as it puts me onto the hefty $10,500 price tag on DraftKings that many users will bypass for a name sitting outside the top 30.
Birdie fests often further neutralize the built-in starting advantage in scoring for round four, and taking Matsuyama out of your player pool may prove to be a significant error.
When looking into the projected scoring difference for every player in the field versus my baseline recalculation for short-game metrics, there isn't anyone who has underachieved quite as much as Vincent Norrman.
You can see that in the image above as Norrman finds himself 6.2 shots below expectation. However, the key to this puzzle is that only Norrman, Chad Ramey, Nate Lashley and Stephan Jaeger graded inside the top-25 in their head-to-head rank.
I will use Norrman as a steady day four option in DFS as part of an under-the-radar approach as he'll start in 55th place.
If you are looking for a cheap, final-round flier, Chad Ramey is being propelled up in my model. While that is probably enough to firmly push readers to at least viewing him as an option to consider, I'll give Ramey the section he deserves and talk about why my numbers like him for Sunday.
Ramey entered the week at 45th in my model for safety after putting together five consecutive top-44 finishes on tour. It wasn't enough from an upside perspective to get me onto him pre-event, but my model believes he's transformed himself into a legitimate top-20 option for Sunday.
We can shift that even higher when running a pre-tournament safety filter over the generic grade I'm using for him, which alters this into a spot of cheap value down the board for a golfer with tangible daily equity. Those are typically my favorite DFS positions to attack aggressively.