2023 Shriners Children’s Open Picks & Odds: Expert Bets for Adam Schenk, Webb Simpson

This week’s 2023 Shriners Children’s Open already is in the spotlight because of one of the players in its field – and it isn't defending champion Tom Kim or rising superstar Ludvig Aberg.

No, it's Lexi Thompson, who will compete on a sponsor’s exemption and become the seventh woman to ever play in a PGA Tour event.

Y’all might not believe it, but this announcement caused plenty of consternation on social media.

First things first: The idea that Thompson is “taking a spot” from some would-be PGA Tour regular is simply untrue. Sponsor’s exemptions are exactly what they sound like – an invitation from the sponsor to anyone they choose to allow to play in the tournament, for which they’ve ponied up millions of dollars as part of the hosting role.

I’ve never actually heard a pro complain about these exemptions going to non-regulars; it’s only something that those without skin in the game seem to criticize. Frankly, it’s surprising that more sponsors don’t use their exemptions on out-of-the-box selections who will draw greater awareness to their events.

Next is the objection of, “She won’t even make the cut.” Whether it was Annika Sorenstam playing against the men at Colonial two decades ago or Michelle Wie competing as a 14-year-old at the Sony Open in each of the following four years, I’ve never quite bought into the make/miss cut delineation as some final judgment of success or failure.

Golfers – male or female – can make a cut and still feel unsatisfied with their performance, just as they can miss a cut while taking some positives from the experience.

Perhaps this is too idealistic, but for Thompson, who’s so often led the charge for growing the game amongst women, success will likely be measured this week in how many young girls attend the event or watch on TV and are impacted by her inclusion, especially at a tournament whose charitable efforts go toward children.

Now, if you’d prefer to scrutinize not the sponsor’s decision but instead the choice of a player who didn’t want to answer media questions about a poor shot at the recent Solheim Cup putting herself in the spotlight by competing in this event, I do believe that’s fair game. Just as it is fair to question the motives of a player who’s struggled on the LPGA this season, as she has missed the cut in eight of 13 starts.

Would Lilia Vu, winner of two majors this year, have been a better selection to represent the women’s game? Or Nelly Korda? Jin Young Ko? Or even up-and-coming phenom Rose Zhang?

At the very least, Thompson’s recent LPGA results of 5^th-8^th-19^th should give her a little more confidence heading into this week, despite the fact that she’ll be making just her second trip to Las Vegas and has never played golf there.

All of which is to say that consternation over inclusion in this week’s field isn’t necessarily invalid, but it needs to be aimed in the proper direction.

Let’s get to this week’s selections, which won’t include the 2,500-to-1 longshot whom everyone’s talking about.

Shriners Children's Open Picks

Outright Winner (Short odds)

One player to win the tournament

Adam Schenk (+4000)

Adam Schenk was easily the first click for me this week – and here’s hoping this 40/1 number is still available by the time you’re reading this, though I wouldn’t doubt if it’s closer to 30/1 by day’s end and perhaps even shorter by the time they tee off Thursday morning.

Over the past year, we’ve learned that Schenk’s ceiling is high enough to win at this level, having reached a playoff at the Charles Schwab Challenge and lost by a stroke at the Valspar Championship.

Those are the highlights – or lowlights, as those who had outright tickets on Schenk might’ve viewed them – but the reality is that Schenk owns six top-seven results (including low 72-hole score for the Tour Championship) in his past 11 starts, proving that he doesn’t just own that lofty ceiling but can also show consistency at a high level.

He’s also excelled at wildly different venues, which is a signal that he holds value anywhere, but there might be even more of it this week, as his record at TPC Summerlin includes five results of 27^th or better in six appearances, including a T12 last year and T3 the year before.

For a player who ran the gauntlet and made it to the season finale, everything at this point is pure gravy. Playing with no weight on his shoulders certainly shouldn’t hurt this week.

Outright Winner (Long odds)

One player to win the tournament

Webb Simpson (+12000)

I used to have a theory: When the PGA Tour hits Sin City, stick to those who stay away from the sin. I trust that Webb Simpson will spend the Vegas nights tucked away in bed at 9 p.m. with a warm glass of milk, which might help to explain his four top-10 finishes and seven top-25 finishes in 11 career starts at this event, including a win 10 years ago.

I don’t know if my theory still holds weight, considering there’s so much money and other rewards on the line that a player would be foolish to spend a late night at the blackjack table before an early tee time, but I do know that when Simpson is playing something close to his best golf, he’s much better than the 52^nd-best player in this field, which is where he ranks on the odds board for this one.

In the fall part of the schedule, especially, I’ll take my chances on bigger outright prices with some upside, and this one fits the strategy nicely.

One-And-Done Picks

Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done pools

Ludvig Aberg (+1100)

Wanna know what’s scary? For two rounds last week, Ludvig Aberg appeared fairly mortal, looking like he was carrying that Ryder Cup hangover that many had predicted for him, yet by week’s end he’d led the field in SG: Tee to Green and was part of the five-man playoff in Mississippi.

Perhaps the only shocker here is that in some books, the Oh-Bear “only” opened as second-favorite, behind Tom Kim.

Once again, I can understand if you’re scared off by the short price, but he owns the talent to lap this field and makes sense for OADs, if you want a no-doubt-about-it selection that requires little thought.

Taylor Montgomery (+7500)

At this point last year, Taylor Montgomery was in the midst of a brilliant start to his rookie campaign as his T15 here was one of eight top-15 results in his first nine starts.

It’s all gotten much tougher for him since then, as he’s failed to post another top-15 finish in his last 18 starts. His brilliant short game and putting stroke haven't overcome his poor accuracy off the tee and inconsistent iron game.

That might not offer much in the way of optimism for this week, but a return to his Vegas roots could be the secret recipe for turning things around. If you don’t want to burn a talent like Aberg, then a guy with upside like Montgomery is worth a shot.

Placement Market Bets

Top Five

One player to finish in the top five

Davis Thompson (+1000 for top-five finish)

Go ahead: Tell everyone that you’re taking Thompson this week, just to see the looks on their faces. Alright, so while Lexi isn’t making the card, Davis Thompson is an extremely viable namesake on the heels of a T16 last week, one of five finishes in the top 31 in his last six starts.

I’m even more bullish on him once we look inside the numbers, which show that his final-round 69 included the third-best tee-to-green numbers in the entire field. With a T12 at this event last year and a solo second in a corollary event at The AmEx, this Thompson should be on track for another strong performance here.

Top 10

One player to finish in the top 10

Erik Van Rooyen (+1000 for top-10 finish)

I’ve written a few times recently that I have a tough time getting away from Erik Van Rooyen, but that doesn’t seem like a bad path these days. He’s now finished in the top 30 in four consecutive worldwide starts, including a T16 last week, when his iron play was the best part of his game.

I will absolutely take a shot on his 100/1 outright number this week, but I’ll also back it up with a top-10 play on a guy who’s proven he can be an upper-tier player when he’s at his best and is now showing that he might not be far from returning to that level.

Top 20

One player to finish in the top 20

Callum Tarren (+300 for top-20 finish)

Though he missed the cut at this event last year, the result alone doesn’t tell the entire story, as Callum Tarren posted under-par rounds of 69-70 that included a double-bogey and five bogeys in his first competitive trips around TPC Summerlin.

After ranking fifth from tee-to-green last week – and sixth in that category on Sunday alone – he makes for a smart positive regression play this week.

Top 30

Two players to finish in the top 30

Martin Laird (+200 for top-30 finish) and Scott Piercy (+375 for top-30 finish)

Unlike last week, when most players in the field had only played maybe once in the past six weeks or so, there’s some reason to chase form at this one.

That said, you can’t find two more disparate tracks than CC of Jackson and TPC Summerlin, so we should look instead for those who have succeeded in the desert.

That’s the bread and butter for Martin Laird and Scott Piercy, a pair of longtime pros who have accrued much of their respective success in these types of environments. Each one makes for a nice floor play in both props and DFS.

Top 40

One player to finish in the top 40

Ryan Moore (+170 for top-40 finish)

It’s been nearly two decades since Ryan Moore won the U.S. Amateur and NCAA Championship and seemingly every other individual accolade while competing at UNLV. While never turning into the superstar many thought he’d become, Moore has forged a lengthy PGA Tour career and still returns to these roots every year, posting nine top-40 finishes in 16 starts, including a victory 12 years ago.

A lack of length off the tee hurts him on longer tracks, but on a shorter course where he knows every nook and cranny, Moore can still post a number. I’ll cautiously play him for a top-40 finish here, but don’t mind a top-20 ticket and think he can be a nice low-cost, low-owned DFS play, too.

DFS Picks

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups

Adam Hadwin

I wrote above about targeting strong desert-course players, and while it might not make much sense that a Canadian who went to college at Louisville would serve as the epitome of this strategy, Adam Hadwin owns a long, fruitful history in these conditions. That includes four top 10s in seven career starts at this even, including three of the past four years.

Eight weeks off since his last start at the BMW Championship might be enough to keep us away from an intriguing 30/1 outright number, but I expect him to be prepped and ready to flourish here once again.

DFS Mid-Tier

A medium-priced option for DFS lineups

Austin Eckroat

There was a time – in the five-event stretch from the AT&T Byron Nelson through the Travelers Championship – when Austin Eckroat was the darling of the betting space, an in-form, up-and-coming talent whose price hadn’t quite reached his momentum. Since then, however, he’s missed the cut in four of five starts, and the lone made cut was a T65, which has unsurprisingly gotten most from his bandwagon to jump ship.

That’s been a direct impact of poorer numbers both off the tee and with his approach shots, but I don’t mind taking a chance in DFS that he turns it around in this one, especially in tournament contests as opposed to cash games.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Jason Dufner

I mentioned Jason Dufner’s resurgence in last week’s Sanderson Farms preview, and while he failed to make the cut, his tee-to-green numbers ranked fourth in the entire field. I’m not quite ready to go all-in on Duf, though his 400/1 outright number is tantalizing.

He does, however, make for a very sensible low-cost DFS play, which should allow you to roster Tom Kim or Aberg if you so choose.

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low round Thursday

Garrick Higgo (+5000 for FRL)

If we’re targeting ceiling plays for outright selections during this time of year, then we’re certainly doing that for FRLs. Garrick Higgo is no stranger to Vegas life, as the South African competed collegiately at UNLV. He’s also no stranger to wild ranges of scores, as evidenced once again last week, when he went 75-65 on the weekend.

I’ll take a shot on him here and similarly like Cameron Champ for the same reason, as I don’t completely trust either for a four-round title contention, but they can each go uncommonly low on a single day.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players

Justin Suh

At some point, Justin Suh is going to enjoy a massive spike week, and, as is the case with some other players, I’ve played him so much over the past year that I want to make sure I don’t miss out.

For matchup purposes, he’s shown an impressive floor, with 25 made cuts in his last 27 starts. Anytime we have a chance to cash head-to-head matchup bets on a Friday afternoon, we should take it, though his potential certainly gives us Sunday hope, just in case, as well.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Cam Davis (+2000), Patrick Rodgers (+5000), Beau Hossler (+5000), Cameron Champ (+6500), Kevin Yu (+7500), Carl Yuan (+13000), Kevin Tway (+30000)