The PGA Tour season is in full swing, as players are putting in some final prep work for the third major of the year in less than a month.
With elevated contests coming up before that, not everyone is here. However, names like Ludvig Aberg, Russell Henley, Justin Thomas, and others will lead the field into Colonial Country Club and try to take on this daunting Par-70 test.
Let's dive into my 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week's event.
Charles Schwab Challenge Outright Winners
Justin Thomas +2600
A trending Justin Thomas enters the week off of three straight finishes inside the top-25, with each one landing better than the last.
I thought all of that form would tell a story of someone who would be sub-20/1 across the board, but you can very easily shop this around and find mid-20s readily available in the market.
Thomas is the poster golfer for volatility. We saw him burn the industry (myself included) at the RBC Heritage right before this onslaught of success. The off-the-tee game is an area that can spell trouble and produce these chaotic returns, although I do tend to like him at these club-down spots historically. Think RBC Heritage of the past or TPC Sawgrass.
In a field where winning equity is sometimes hard to find for even the favorites, I like the idea of taking a bona fide winner.
Alex Smalley +4000
I've written in multiple Action Network articles over the last two months that Alex Smalley is this year's version of Ben Griffin. Wouldn't it be fitting if Smalley captured his first overall PGA Tour title at the same location where Griffin took home his first solo piece of hardware in 2025?
I am a big believer that these prices on Smalley are still too slow to move. My model views him as a legitimate top-10 golfer in this field, who is going to be marginally priced outside of that range for betting markets.
I used to talk about how a Par 70 course would be where Smalley's first victory would come, given his lack of par-five scoring. I do stand by this being his best chance, but what I may have missed two years ago in that prediction was that his par-five totals were too low to achieve high-end success. Fortunately, those days are long behind him, something we see with him ranking 24th in this field for par-five average.
The American is firing on all cylinders and sets up nicely for Colonial's layout.
Brian Harman +6600
Before I gave this bet out on Monday, I realized I was walking into a Harman chalk bomb. It feels like every handicapper on X is making a case for why the Open Champion of 2023 is one of the best values on the board.
We have had countless examples of Harman chalk going bad over the last few years. It feels like when everyone is on him, the wheels unravel. I don't believe what has happened in the past should be any indicator of future outlooks. However, I would be remiss if I didn't at least mention Harman disappointing everyone on multiple occasions over the years.
That's the bad of the profile. The good is going to be a much longer list. My model individually graded Harman first in this field when playing 'similar courses' and hitting fairways/grinding out of the rough when you do happen to miss off the tee. It also provided an extremely robust third-place mark for Weighted Strokes Gained Total. That is a category that tries to find how someone plays when given the course archetype of past success.
At the end of the day, when you give me someone top five in projection for this exact venue and number one when diving into similar comp courses, it is hard to ignore a 66/1 number. I'd have more concerns for DFS if this ownership balloons, but that is not our problem here in the outright market. Value is value.
Tony Finau +6700
A lot of my reasons for backing Finau will be explained in the matchup section below! Take a look at why I am ignoring my long-term model returns and grasping at a one-week sample size of production.
That is a very rare answer for me to give, but one I typically find when diving into elite golfers who have struggled recently.
Getting the best of the number is always worth a shot if you believe it could return to normalcy down the road. That is what I am trying to do here on Finau at 67/1.
Eric Cole +10000
Outside of the obvious answer of "Eric Cole doesn't win golf tournaments," why are we seeing an increase in his outright price from the 70s (CJ Cup) into the 100/1 range (Charles Schwab)? No Scottie Scheffler in the field already helps his win equity.
A lot of the reasons I liked Cole last week will remain true here. The American is an elite iron player who thrives with his short game, and I could make the case that this is a better course for him than last week.
The fact that bettors have maneuvered away from him is a positive to get this price boosted. I will take a shot at him again.
Charles Schwab Challenge Matchup Pick
Tony Finau -110 over Rasmus Hojgaard
I have three matchups this week that all moved pretty heavily before this article went live. I am not sure if any are bet-worthy at their new totals, because we are talking about 40-50-point moves across the board, but I will talk about the one I had most mispriced on Monday after I released it in my Discord channel.
The Finau profile is instilling trust in something that the long-term data will show has its fair share of concerns. Finau has been a rollercoaster of production for over 12 months now, with many of the better finishes resulting in a statistical profile that left a ton to be desired in terms of return.
Finau's 18th at Pebble Beach had him entering the final round with a projected score of 56th on the leaderboard. The 11th at the Farmers had him 64th before Sunday began. And even the 18th at the Valspar saw him 61st on that leaderboard before he struck a ball on the final day. That's nothing more than enhanced putting totals that inevitably fixed an overall very poor ball-striking output. In reality, those are the red flags to fade during the next tournament.
All of that changed at the CJ Cup last week, though. Finau dominated all four days, which included a three-round output that had him fourth on the leaderboard for projected score and helps to explain the sixth-place result.
It doesn't hurt for this particular matchup that my model doesn't love Rasmus Hojgaard. I have him as a fringe made-cut candidate that loses some of his appeal at this club-down nature. I would be lying if I said I fully trust that Finau is back after one showing. However, this is the first glimmer of long-term hope we have received in a while, and I am fine being early to the party this week.
