This week's Genesis Scottish Open comes on the heels of the John Deere Classic.
Taking place at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland, just 20 minutes east of Edinburgh. Last year, Chris Gotterup took home the Scottish Open, inching out Rory McIlroy and Marco Penge.
Let's dive into our staff's Genesis Scottish Open picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week.
First Round Leader Pick: Ludvig Aberg (+4100)
By: Tony Sartori
This course is made for someone like Ludvig Aberg.
Entering this week, he ranks in the 96th percentile on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach and in the 95th percentile in strokes gained: approach from 200-plus yards.
Players will also need to rely on their short game if windy conditions intensify. Last year, each of the top five finishers ranked among the top 14 in the field in strokes gained: putting.
No other strokes-gained category showed a similar trend.
Aberg has proven capable on the greens, ranking in the 82nd percentile on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting. He has also thrived at this venue, finishing inside the top eight in each of his past two appearances.
Outright Winner Pick: Rory McIlroy (+1000)
By: Dylan Wilkerson
Rory McIlroy checks every box that matters at The Renaissance Club. And it doesn't hurt that he's the second longest driver on the PGA Tour over the past six months.
His well-documented lack of accuracy off the tee, which can hurt him at tighter venues, isn't a liability at a course this forgiving off the tee.
Now, while his putter has been a point of criticism at various points in his career, he's gaining +0.34 strokes putting on average, which is comfortably positive.
His course history backs it up. Rory owns the second-best course history in the field across his three events here, and he's gaining +3.18 strokes per round at Renaissance Club specifically.
Matchup Winner Pick: Marco Penge Over Brooks Koepka (-118)
By: Kyle Murray
But I think when looking at my thoughts on the matchup, first of all, if both these guys were completely healthy, I still have Marco Penge, who ranks 32nd in my model, with the upper hand here.
Brooks Koepka is down to 47th, even just considering him being fully healthy. Obviously, you do have to maybe put an asterisk there because a lot of these guys, you know, especially with Koepka.
He's been playing injured at times, so his stats aren't as true to full health, but nonetheless, I like Penge here either way.
He's performed here last year, I think it was T2 or T3, but all health considered, I do like Penge, but I will say for Koepka, I feel a little bit more uneasy about his position here this week based on health.
I do think that from a predictability perspective on the injuries, Penge, it seems very difficult to gauge how to predict whether he's going to have those symptoms and those impacts this week.
He did play well last week with the top 10 finish at the BMW, which is actually a pretty solid field as well. So I feel great about the form coming into this week. We don't really have that with Koepka. We had a big red flag for him at the U.S. Open when he was one of my biggest fades that week as well; he didn't perform well and missed the cut.
From a health perspective, I would give the edge there to Penge just because last week we saw him put up a good performance there at the BMW. The last time we saw Koepka, it was not very good.
So all in all, straight up, I like the edge here for Penge. He projects better in this spot, but I also give him a little bit more of a health advantage as well, due to what we saw from him last week.
Top 20 Pick: Alex Smalley (+460)
By: Derek Farnsworth
Smalley's last three events haven't been great (T47, MC, MC), but before that, he was one of the hottest golfers on Tour.
He finished in the top 20 in six straight events with two runner-ups and a third-place finish.
He's pretty solid across the board when it comes to his strokes gained metrics, and he's 2-for-3 in making the cut at this event with two top-35 finishes.
In addition, we are getting +460 odds for a golfer who has finished in the top 20 in six of his last nine events.
