Golf is a unique sport because it doesn't generate the same sort of dominance we may see in other areas of the sporting world. For as good as Scottie Scheffler is compared to his peers, we still see extended periods when he doesn't win events.
All of that makes his sub-2/1 price at TPC Craig Ranch all that much more impressive. The American is the cream of the crop this week and enters the proceedings after capturing this title in runaway fashion in 2025. My model believes he is the most likely winner… I know, shock! But it also says that he won't capture this title about 66.6% of the time.
Let's dive into my 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week's event and see if we can find one of those 66% names.
CJ Cup Byron Nelson Outright Winners
Scottie Scheffler is the best player in this field and is rather deserving of his sub-2/1 price tag. I don't want those words to be lost in translation. I even considered bypassing this board altogether.
At the end of the day, I decided to take mostly deep shots on some triple-digit names and hope for the best. There is one outlier to that answer that I will talk about in just one second, but consider this a highly volatile board past Scheffler, which means the number-one player in the world does have more win equity than any of us would care to see. My only hope is that one of those deep shots ends up getting lucky on a straightforward track.
Si Woo Kim (15/1)
If you look at the best form players of 2026, you would get a list of Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Young, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Rory McIlroy and a few other names. The common denominator for those four is that they have dominated events so far this season. The uncommon denominator when branching the list to the next two options (Si Woo Kim and Ludvig Aberg) is that they are missing titles on their resumes for the quality of golf they have produced in 2026.
Look, I wish Si Woo didn't land at 15/1 here. It is a gross price to chase for a golfer who has shown limitations closing over the last few seasons. That said, I also think these birdie-barrage tests are where he finds his best upside, with a price tag somewhat reminiscent of what we saw from Ludvig Aberg last week at the Masters.
In fairness, that didn't result in a victory during that go-around either, but the data returns are sound enough for Kim to warrant this general range. It might feel gross on the surface, but this field drops in quality fast.
Adrien Dumont De Chassart (100/1)
Adrien Dumont De Chassart has limitations in gaining strokes off the tee, but his calling card has always been distance (and his ability to gain strokes on extremely easy driving venues).
Chassart enters the week having produced five straight made cuts over the last 10 weeks of action, highlighted by his best finish coming nearly two months ago in Texas conditions.
I ran a very aggressive version of my model this week to try and find as much hidden win equity as possible. It led to names I bet (Chassart, Cole, Olesen). It also led to names I took in other iterations of the market (Mac Meissner, Pierceson Coody, etc.). Either way, it tried to do anything it could to find someone to dethrone Scheffler's inevitable victory.
Cameron Champ (350/1)
A once-promising young career hasn't seen a title in nearly five years after winning three times between 2018 and 2021. To make matters worse, Champ lost his PGA Tour card in 2025 and has failed to regain consistent form of any kind.
Wrist injuries and things of that nature are notable deterrents and stay relevant when Korn Ferry Production has remained hot-or-cold, but Champ has shown himself to be an all-or-nothing golfer over his last 11 starts, either landing top-25 (three times) or being outside the top 65 in every other occurrence (eight of which resulted in a missed cut).
The floor is REALLY BAD. So bad that writing about this is going to end up in an implosion on Thursday, most likely. But what is the difference with that answer if Scheffler inevitably ends up winning anyway?
I am shooting for upside with my shots, and when Champ starts finding fairways and greens in unison, he has the birdie-making potential to get into the 20-under range. I'd consider this to be the ultimate lottery ticket for a wide-open scoring track. One that probably ends early on Thursday, but one that does have past pedigree of success.
Other Names I Bet: Thorbjorn Olesen (100/1), Ben Kohles (300/1), Eric Cole (80/1)
CJ Cup Byron Nelson Matchup Pick
Taylor Moore -125 over Kristoffer Ventura
Any of the matchups that I am on this week are about the same in quality. I'd call the entire group about a C in terms of value compared to an average betting board. Decent enough discrepancies in some areas, but there are red flags within all head-to-head pairings if you dive deeper. For the sake of this article, let's go with one that is still findable at the current price of Moore over Ventura.
Moore versus Ventura walks a very fine line when relying solely on statistical returns. I've noticed a weird recent trend of Ventura popping for almost every data iteration in my sheet over the last few months. That's a bizarre answer when you consider the 268th-ranked player in the world is on a six-event missed-cut streak, further highlighted by only one made cut in all of 2026.
Some of that data profile caused me to take a step back. You will notice Ventura outpaces Moore this week when throwing away recent form or course history and only looking for stat upside. In theory, that makes Ventura a nice contrarian dart-throw if shooting purely for potential. However, I wanted to look at all his recent starts to see if those trends are relevant whatsoever.
Here is what my model found:
Something will have to give because you can't keep checking boxes statistically and never making a cut, though I'll bite here until we see those tides turn.
Moore has found something recently with back-to-back top-40 finishes and matched enough boxes within his data to make me feel confident enough in taking a shot on him in a matchup. I don't fully trust this wager, but that is pretty on par with what the board is rendering this week.
