This Week’s PGA Tour Betting Preview: Expect Another Longshot Winner At The 3M Open
Sam Greenwood, Getty Images. Pictured: Sam Burns
- Josh Perry previews this week's PGA Tour event, with betting analysis for the 3M Open.
- Find out why he expects another longshot to win at TPC Twin Cities.
- He also reveals his favorite picks at 100-1 or longer odds.
Jon Rahm looked like the best guy in the field from start to finish at last week’s Memorial.
There wasn’t much of a Sunday sweat for Rahm-backers, who didn’t even need to fret over his two-shot penalty. All that infraction did was cut his margin of victory from five strokes to two (and cause a six-figure DFS swing).
With the two-week stint at Muirfield Village behind us, we’ll now shift our focus to the 3M Open in Minnesota. With a WGC and the PGA Championship looming, plenty of big names decided to take a pass on this event.
Distance off the tee seemed to be the separating factor in last year’s inaugural event which saw Matthew Wolff famously card a walk-off eagle to beat Bryson DeChambeau.
TPC Twin Cities comes in at 7,431 yards for a par 71.
The main defense is water, which is in play on about half the holes, but if players stay dry, they can go really low. I’d expect the winner to be in the 20-under par range, a stark contrast to what we saw at Muirfield Village last week.
In the end, it will likely come down to whoever brings a hot putter with them to the Twin Cities. We’ll be dealing with bentgrass greens this week and they usually don’t favor anyone in particular.
As mentioned, there are plenty of stars taking the week off.
Dustin Johnson opened as the favorite at +1000 ($10 bet wins $100), fresh off a pair of 80s at Memorial. He’s epitomized the highs and lows of the game in a two-event swing — winning at the Travelers and following it up with a 16-over at Jack’s Place.
Brooks Koepka is right behind DJ at +1200. Koepka recently said the knee injury that’s plagued him since the fall is still giving him trouble, so that alone is enough of a reason for me to steer clear at this price. Plus, he hasn’t shown any real signs of contending since the restart.
Perhaps the most intriguing field note is that Tommy Fleetwood will make his first start since the hiatus. The long-haired Liverpudlian is tied with Tony Finau at +1400.
I’ve avoided betting on these top guys in their first event since the restart and I won’t change that approach now. I just don’t feel comfortable betting such short odds when I don’t know where a guy’s game is at.
Finau fell from +6600 at Memorial to +1400 this week, which is the biggest odds dip in this range. His struggles down the stretch are well known at this point and he isn’t really bettable at such a short number.
Paul Casey and Matthew Wolff close out this range at +2200 and +2500, respectively.
Casey, who missed the cut at Muirfield Village, made my card at +8000 last week, but I’ve got no interest in him at +2200.
Wolff won this event as a 100-1 longshot last season, and even though I’ll pass on him at this number, I’ll look for similar guys who are long off the tee and can ride a hot putter.
I’ll start my card with a play on Sam Burns at +5000.
Burns has played well in much stronger fields than this one since the break and has finished inside the top-30 in each of his last three starts. In addition to his solid form, he’s a good driver and usually putts well, so he meets the profile that I’m looking to back at TPC Twin Cities, where he notched a seventh-place finish in 2019.
Burns looked like a really strong prospect coming out of the Korn Ferry Tour a few years ago but a wrist injury slowed his progress. He seems to have worked his way back from that.
With the stars away, this is a good chance for Burns to break through.
Patrick Rodgers is next up at +6600. The 28-year-old is strong off the tee and can get hot with the putter, plus he’s coming off a top-20 performance in a loaded field at Memorial.
Rodgers is pretty hit-and-miss with his irons, but I’d expect him to grab a win at some point and he can shine in this type of field.
I’m also in on another bomber who putts it well, Jhonattan Vegas, at +7000.
Vegas has made three out of four cuts since the pause and he hasn’t lost strokes off the tee since October, so his form and profile are where I want them to be heading into the 3M.
I wouldn’t dip too far below these numbers on any of the guys in this range. True value will be tough to find in this field, so sure to shop around for the best price.
Wolff cashed in this range last year, so there’s no reason to think we couldn’t have another longshot winner again this week.
My first play in this range will be Kristoffer Ventura at +9000.
Ventura has a couple of top-10 finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour since the restart and he finished 21st in his last PGA TOUR start at the Rocket Mortgage, so his game is in good shape.
Ventura doesn’t come with the same hype as Wolff or Viktor Hovland, his former college teammates, but he’s been playing solid golf and could find himself playing alongside them more consistently after picking up a couple of KFT wins last summer.
I’m also going to back my old friend, Keith Mitchell, at +12500.
Not much has gone Mitchell’s way recently but he gained strokes on approach for the first since the restart at Memorial and finished 22nd. His putter has been fine and he’s long enough off the tee, so if he can keep his approach in line he should be able to compete this week. Mitchell won in a much better field than this, so I’ll bet on his game continuing to trend in the right direction.
Lastly, I’ll back Derek Ernst at +30000.
Ernst was the 54-hole leader on the Korn Ferry Tour last week and he’s seemed to have found his groove again. Ernst has three straight top-20 finishes on the KFT and, outside of a rough five-hole stretch to begin his final round, he was as good as anybody in the field at TPC San Antonio over the weekend.
Ernst won at Quail Hollow, another driver-heavy course, so I’ll throw a dart on him at a huge number.
These longshot bets, especially Ernst, are probably better as top-20 picks and it’s probably not worth dipping too far below these numbers because of the volatility in each of their games.
The 3M Card
- Sam Burns +5000 (.66 units)
- Patrick Rodgers +6600 (.5 units)
- Jhonattan Vegas +7000 (.47 units)
- Kristoffer Ventura +9000 (.33 units)
- Keith Mitchell +12500 (.24 units)
- Derek Ernst +30000 (.11 units)
Total Stake: 2.31 units