Our last chance to see most players before next week's major. Who is here for a tune-up start? Who is still searching for something? Who is here to win?
Those are questions we will find out over the week once play begins on Thursday, but I find this a nice betting board for us to consider.
Let's dive into my Genesis Scottish Open picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week's event.
Genesis Scottish Open Outright Picks
Tommy Fleetwood 22.5/1
It might end up being famous last words regarding Scottie Scheffler, but my model thought the American was too short this week when he opened in that 5/1 range. I had someone like Rory McIlroy MUCH closer to the co-lead than what we got on the slate at their 5/1 versus 10/1 discrepancy. I didn't end up getting to McIlroy because I also thought he was marginally too short, but I don't hate the idea of single-bulleting this if you can get closer to 12/1.
For me, I decided to play the same song and dance that we have seen for about a month now of Tommy Fleetwood. If he can't win in America, maybe the Links-style pedigree can come out in Scotland. The data clearly suggest that this could be the case.
Three golfers ranked inside the top 20 across all seven categories I weighed from a statistical perspective. It is not bait-and-switch where I am going to pull some outlier name to include next to Fleetwood. Naturally, it is the two favorites and him. The reason why that matters, though, is that I do pride my model in being rather in tune with the market. I am not trying to predict the exact leaderboard outcome when I make odds; instead, I am attempting to pinpoint price points and values, with outliers in either direction being where I land with my bets. It makes these outlier answers mean more to me.
Maybe there needs to be a filter I put in place that shows Fleetwood as a great top-10 or 20 target and a poor outright option, but let all of those choices be in play here. If you want to go the safer route and cap this as a placement option, I understand. I am just going to trust the math and hope the foreign soil helps him get across the finish line in a full-field event.
Ludvig Aberg 25/1
If nothing else, I am persistent when it comes to Ludvig Aberg…This reminds me of the days when I constantly found myself betting on Jon Rahm or Xander Schauffele before they reached a point of no return in their outright prices. Barring something to move me out of this market, I assume we will do the same thing next week at the Open Championship. It is just one of those spots where I am going to go down with the ship.
Aberg is a tough study because of the statistical profile that he presents. The long-iron play and general upside at similar courses is pronounced. We see that with his rank of second in proximity from 200+ yards and first when we add in scrambling to that long-iron production. I think all of those retrievals are noteworthy for a course that demands over 30% of its shots to occur from 200+ yards, but it was the general ease of the around-the-green metrics that intrigued me most about the Swede.
We have seen countless times Aberg play the wrong shot or make the unmakeable mistake that costs himself events with his short game, but The Renaissance Club is a venue that makes scrambling easy, which is probably why we have seen him post back-to-back top-10 finishes there.
My model believes Aberg should be the fourth favorite on the slate (behind Scheffler, McIlroy and Fleetwood) and comes with a nice discount at the 25/1 price tag you find in the space.
Justin Thomas 47/1
I was torn between Justin Thomas and Tyrrell Hatton on Monday. That split-second indecision caused Hatton to drop from the 40s into the low 30s and ultimately forced me to make this decision when we saw Thomas rise even higher.
I don't want it to sound as if Thomas is merely the consolation prize. The course history might suggest that, but I've long argued that Thomas is a better Links player than we often give him credit for when model building.
Thomas posted a top 10 recent form metric in my sheet, has historically been a great scrabbler, and is someone who has a spike nature in windy conditions. Sure, the downside is also there from time to time. However, the ceiling is something I want to focus on in the outright market.
The long-iron play will have to be a lot better than we have seen recently, but his combination of distance and the ability to spray the ball off the tee does help if he can create more opportunities. If it hits, I think a late tee time is in play for round four. Then again, the floor is a missed cut if he can't put all the pieces together.
Richard Mansell 2000/1
What is sad about this play is that I think if Richard Mansell had more time to get back into form after sitting out for four months due to hip surgery, we might have had something truly special in this wager (even if we had to bet it at 300/1 rather than 2000/1). I am going to be cautiously optimistic that he can find something after a handful of missed-cut showings in a row leading into this week, but I am grabbing a long-term data profile that shows he has found success at this venue in the past and hoping for the best.
Mansell is someone I am also going to bet to land a top-20 at 20/1 (Grant Forrest top-20 at 16/1 will be my other long-shot wager). If you want to see why the data liked either of these names, you can check it out inside my model. I will also take Mansell to make the cut at +138
Genesis Scottish Open Matchup Pick
Justin Thomas -125 over J.J. Spaun
I've been a big proponent that Justin Thomas' Links-style pedigree is better than the results for a few years now. We see that within a data set that shows Thomas is a high-class scrambler and wind player, and can make critical putts from short range. It is no different from a venue like TPC Sawgrass, where missing wide off the tee can be negated (if you avoid water there) because of the scrambling nature that has been asked of players.
Two main factors are influencing Spaun's price point this week.
- A major championship on the resume goes a long way in holding up a profile, even when the data shifts at a particular venue.
- Spaun's recent form has been elite. The market may be more accurate on this than I am, as some sharp books like him over the four days. I don't want to negate that completely.
For me, though, I am very happy to oppose a golfer who has some real concerns from within the stats for Links-style golf.
You will notice three categories in which Spaun delivers a concern. In fairness, all three are correlated in the process, so overachievement in any particular area will naturally fix the other two, but Spaun's putting on similar venues should be monitored when running a model. My math places him outside the top 100 in multiple flat-stick metrics, including three-putt avoidance on similar tests and "short putts made."
If his inability to make putts comes to fruition, I could see this being a short week for Spaun. Even if I am wrong in that area, I hope Thomas can realize the upside within his profile.
