It was another week of close calls for yours truly. Jackson Suber was in the mix on Sunday, which would have been a really fun outright to hit. We also had Kevin Yu and Blades Brown come really close to cashing their placement bets. As I say with golfers who are always in contention, it's only a matter of time before they win. I'm hoping it's the same case for us as well.
I'm looking forward to the next two weeks, as we have the Genesis Scottish Open and The Open Championship with a different style of golf in play in this part of the world. I typically get a lot less sleep during these two weeks, as I have no choice but to stay up late (or wake up really early) and watch these events.
I'm manifesting a big week for the betting card.
Let's take a look at the Genesis Scottish Open picks and PGA Tour predictions for this week's major tournament at The Renaissance Club.
Genesis Scottish Open Preview: The Renaissance Club
The Renaissance Club is located in North Berwick, Scotland and the weather is typically the story at this event. However, the forecast looks awfully calm for the Scottish Coast.
The weather can change on a dime in this part of the world, so we'll have to keep an eye on the forecast leading up to the first tee time. If the wind is indeed down this year, we should expect some low scores, as wind is this course's main defense.
As for the course specifics, the Renaissance Club is a Par 70 that measures 7,282 yards. The layout is unique, as the course has three Par 5s (all over 575 yards) and five Par 3s.
Driving Distance typically doesn't matter as much on links-style courses, but it has played a big factor at this event over the years. In 2025, golfers hit driver on 72% of non-Par 3 tee shots and averaged over 300 yards off the tee. These fairways are tough for everyone to hit, so being closer to the hole is a big advantage.
Golfers can expect a lot of long iron approach shots into these large greens (7,000 square feet). The greens-in-regulation rate at this event is typically close to Tour average, but the greens will be much easier to hit if this current forecast holds.
In that scenario, I'll be placing more of an emphasis on approach play and less of an emphasis on around-the-green play.
While purists will say this isn't a true links course, it still plays very similar to a links course. The turf is the same, it has pot bunkers, and golfers will have to deal with fescue if they hit shots too far offline.
Genesis Scottish Open Predictions, Picks
If you missed last week's article, I ran 5,000 simulations for the John Deere Classic and compared my probabilities to market odds. I did the same this week for the Genesis Scottish Open.
I'm leaning heavily on the model and the sims for my betting card this week.
Ludvig Aberg to Win Outright (+2200, FanDuel); Top 20 (+120, bet365)
Even though he doesn't have a win this season, he's been in contention a ton (what a great fit for my betting card).
His form has still been elite, as has his ball striking, and his short game has drastically improved. Not only that, he's posted top-5 finishes in five of his last 11 events.
He's top-4 in this field in my two new metrics for The Renaissance Club (Weighted Proximity and Expected Hole Performance), and he's finished T8 and T4 at this event in the last two years.
This is a fair price for a golfer who is consistently in the mix on Sundays.
Tyrrell Hatton to Win Outright (+3300, DraftKings); Top 20 (+150, bet365)
I'm big on Hatton this week. He's my favorite bet of the week.
It's hard to trust any of the statistics on LIV, but if you zoom out and look at Hatton's statistics from the PGA Tour over the last four years, they are as good as nearly anyone's.
Not only is he above the field average in all of four of the strokes-gained metrics, he comes into this week in tremendous form, as he won his last start on LIV and finished T7 at the U.S. Open
He's also posted three straight top 25s at this event and is one of the best in the world on links courses, winning the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship three times.
Eric Cole to Win Outright (+12500, 0.5 units, FanDuel); Top 20 (+400, Caesars)
Cole's T39 finish at the John Deere Classic doesn't jump off the page, but he was 5-over par after the first round.
He was 15-under par in his final three rounds and gained nearly four strokes on approach in the final round alone.
On Tour, he's certainly one of the streakiest golfers, posting top 10 finishes in four of his last eight events, but he sets up well for this week's course, regardless of weather.
If it's windy, he has one of the best short games of anyone in the field. If we have calm conditions, he's one of the best in the field on easy courses.
I'm sprinkling on the outright and also betting the top 20.
Si-Woo Kim Top 20 (+215, Caesars)
Kim used to be a golfer who would miss a bunch of cuts and then randomly show up and win events.
Today, his game is at a much different stage, as he's turned into one of the most consistent golfers on Tour, which has led to fewer wins, but far more top 10s and top 20s.
After chasing a win a few times earlier this season, I'm settling for a top 20 from Kim this week. He's elite tee-to-green and has improved his putting over the last few months.
He's also finished in the top 35 at this event in each of the last two years.
Alex Smalley Top 20 (+460, bet365)
Smalley's last three events haven't been great (T47, MC, MC), but before that, he was one of the hottest golfers on Tour.
He finished in the top 20 in six straight events with two runner-ups and a third-place finish.
He's pretty solid across the board when it comes to his strokes gained metrics, and he's 2-for-3 in making the cut at this event with two top-35 finishes.
In addition, we are getting +460 odds for a golfer who has finished in the top 20 in six of his last nine events.
Good luck this week!
