Betting on golf can be extremely frustrating. Getting one or two of your outright bets across the finish line can be the difference between a winning season and a losing one. We have not gotten off to a good start this year, but I thought the tides were turning at last week's Charles Schwab Challenge. We had two bets in the mix on Sunday (Alex Smalley and Mac Meissner), but they both fell just short of making the playoff.
At the very least, we didn't have to deal with the heartbreak that Eric Cole backers had on Sunday. Russell Henley birdied his final 3 holes in regulation and then birdied the first playoff hole to steal the tournament away from Cole.
Let's take a look at my 2026 Memorial Tournament picks and PGA TOUR predictions for this week's event.
Memorial Tournament Preview: Muirfield Village Golf Club
We have another Signature Event on tap this week, although this one features a cut. I don't know about you, but having even a small cut makes a world of difference in terms of the sweating experience of the event. There are 72 golfers set to tee it up in Ohio this week with the top 50 and ties plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead making the cut.
Muirfield Village is a Par 72 that measures 7,569 yards. This course was designed (and routinely renovated) by Jack Nicklaus, who loves to create as tough of a test as possible for these professional golfers. To show how difficult this course is, the winning scores over the last 3 years have been -10, -8, and -7. Most of the golfers in the field will end up over par for the week.
The fairways on this course are generous in size, but this is not a bomber's course by any means. There are some forced lay-ups off the tee, and due to the thick rough and the number of dog legs, hitting the fairway is much more important than hitting the ball far at this course. My preferred off the tee metrics this week are Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Good Drive Percentage.
As is the case with most Nicklaus designs, this is more of a second-shot golf course. It's much easier to hit the greens from the fairway, but the average Greens in Regulation rate at this event is much lower than TOUR average. The greens are small (5,000 square feet) and the pins are often tucked in difficult spots. Thanks to the thick rough around the green and the tricky pin positions, the scrambling success rate here is always lower than TOUR average.
Essentially, this course is extremely challenging on approach and around the green. You also have to drive the ball well and avoid 3-putts on these fast bermudagrass greens. If you have a weakness in your game, Muirfield Village will expose it.
Memorial Tournament Picks, Predictions
Scottie Scheffler to win +350 (FanDuel)
When I opened the odds on Monday morning, I immediately started building an outright card with golfers priced in the +1800 to +5500 range. Before making the bets, I couldn't ignore my gut screaming "don't be an idiot, just bet Scheffler this week." If we can't trust our gut instincts, what can we trust?
Rather than having my usual outright card, Scheffler is my only bet to win this week. It's been far too long since he's won a tournament, especially since he's been in contention in 4 of his last 5 starts. His iron play was uncharacteristically average during the first 4 months of the season, but he has gained over 5 strokes on approach in each of his last 3 events. Muirfield Village requires a solid all-around game, and Scheffler is top 10 in this field in all four of the strokes gained categories this year. In addition to the form and stats, he has an impeccable track record here. In his last 4 appearances here, he has 2 wins and 2 third place finishes. I'm putting 2 units on Scheffler this week.
Ludvig Aberg top 5 +320 (Caesars)
I was originally going to bet Aberg to win outright at +1600, but I'm going to settle for a top 5 instead. He's been in such good form recently that his T17 finish last week was a tad underwhelming. He has now finished T21 or better in 9 straight events with 4 top 5 finishes during that stretch. He has become an even stronger all-around golfer this year, as he's positive in all four of the strokes gained categories. He seems to like it at Muirfield Village, as he's finished T16 and T5 here in his first 2 appearances.
Patrick Cantlay top 10 +250 (Caesars)
Cantlay hasn't played a ton of events over the last few seasons, and it has led to some inconsistent golf. However, his game seems to be trending in the right direction at the moment. He has finished T12 or better in 4 of his last 5 events, and he has gained over 30 strokes tee-to-green during that stretch. The putter has been a little bit of a wildcard, but he has historically putted very well on bentgrass greens (especially these ones). You'll be hard-pressed to find a golfer with better course history, as Cantlay has won here twice and has 3 more top 10 finishes.
Jordan Spieth top 10 +380 (FanDuel) and top 20 +140 (Caesars)
Spieth is still far from the height on his golfing powers, but he is having his most consistent season on the PGA TOUR in a long time. He's made 11 straight cuts with 7 top 20 finishes during that stretch. He's still searching for his first top 10 of the season, but all the signs point to it happening sooner rather than later. His course history at Muirfield Village is encouraging, as he has 2 top 10s and 2 more top 20 finishes at this event over the last 5 years. If he can avoid the blow-up round, I like his chances to cash the top 10 and the top 20 bets this week.
Rickie Fowler top 10 +375 (bet365) and top 20 +155 (Caesars)
Fowler missing the cut as one of the favorites last week was painful, but golf is hard. A couple of bad breaks can be the difference between playing the weekend and heading home on Friday. I'm willing to overlook a single missed cut, as Fowler has played some great golf this year. He has 4 top 10 finishes in his last 8 starts and 7 top 20 finishes so far this season. He has a solid all-around game, which is perfect for Muirfield Village. He hasn't been in the best of form heading into this event over the last 5 years, yet he still has 3 top 11 finishes here during that stretch.
