I didn't have Ryan Fox winning The Open Championship on my bingo card last week. And as such, I didn't have him on my outright card either. For a large portion of Sunday afternoon, it looked like a two-man race between Si Woo Kim and Cameron Young. Kim held the lead for a long time, but Young was sitting in the clubhouse at -9. Ultimately, Kim made too many mistakes, while Fox put together one of the most impressive back nines in recent memory.
While we didn't have any exposure to Fox, we did cash a top 10 from Si Woo Kim and a top 20 from Russell Henley. It was essentially a break-even week, which is never a bad week when you are betting on golf. We are biding our time until we have one of the big weeks that essentially pays for most of the bets all year.
Let's take a look at my 3M Open picks and PGA Tour predictions for this week's tournament at TPC Twin Cities.
3M Open Preview
The week after the final major championship of the year, we have the 3M Open. We typically don't have the strongest field for this event, but Scottie Scheffler has decided to grace us with his presence. He's the overwhelming favorite at +275 in the betting market. We'll see what my model has to say about him shortly.
TPC Twin Cities is a Par 71 that measures 7,431 yards. It's located in Minnesota, which is known as the "Land of 10,000 Lakes." A quick Google search says that Minnesota actually has 11,842 lakes, but we don't need to get caught up in the details. With so many lakes in the area, there is naturally going to be a lot of water in play on the course. In fact, 13 of the 18 holes feature water hazards. While the course plays easy overall, big numbers are lurking at all times.
This is a long Par 71 and a driver-heavy course, yet the data suggests that Driving Accuracy is more important than Driving Distance. The fairways are wide, but the penalty rate on a missed fairway is over 7%, which is one of the highest marks on the PGA TOUR. This is where all of the water comes into play. So while hitting it far can be an advantage here, it's only an advantage if you hit it far and in the fairway. Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Good Drive Percentage are my favorite driving metrics this week.
Approach play is king every week, but even more than usual at TPC Twin Cities. Many of the greens are surrounded by water, so golfers will have to be precise with their irons. The greens here are average in size (6,500 square feet), feature pure bentgrass, and run 12.5 on the stimpmeter. They are easy to hit in regulation, especially from the fairway. With such a high greens-in-regulation rate expected, I'm not focusing much on Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green or Scrambling.
Ultimately, I am looking for good ball strikers who can avoid big numbers (Bogey Avoidance).
3M Open Predictions, Picks
As you can see in the graphic below, Scottie Scheffler won over 23% of the time in my 20,000 simulations this week. That's the highest mark that the model has seen all year, yet he still doesn't offer value in the outright market.
That doesn't mean that he's not going to win this week, but he doesn't offer value at +275. The good news is that his presence has inflated the odds of everyone else in the field.
Here are my model probabilities compared to market prices:
Doug Ghim To Win (+5000, BetMGM) and Top 10 (+445, DraftKings)
Betting on Ghim to win golf tournaments has never worked. Not once. He has never won on the PGA TOUR.
However, just because it hasn't happened before doesn't mean it can't happen eventually.
Ghim has the third-best win probability in my model this week. He's one of the best total drivers (accuracy + distance) in the field, and he's long been an elite iron player.
His approach play fell off a bit earlier in the year, but he seems to have found something with his irons over the last few months. He's posted top 30 finishes in three of his last four starts on TOUR and at this event. He's one hot putting week away from being in contention.
I'm betting the outright and the top 10.
Benjamin James to Win (+5100, DraftKings) and Top 10 (+650, FanDuel)
James is a 23-year-old rookie who has quietly been making a name for himself on the PGA TOUR.
After making some cuts and posting some decent finishes earlier this year, he took advantage of the weaker fields in the alt events in the last two weeks. He finished T4 at the Corales Puntacana Championship and T15 at the ISCO Championship.
In those two events, he gained over 10 strokes in ball striking. This week's field is certainly stronger, but it shouldn't surprise anyone if we get a long-shot winner.
I like his talent and the incoming form.
Mac Meissner to Win (+5800, DraftKings) and Top 20 (+230, FanDuel)
Meissner could be a popular bet this week, so I wouldn't be surprised if his number dropped by the time Thursday rolls around.
He's posted two top-six finishes in his last six starts on TOUR, and he's 2-for-2 in cuts made at this event with a T14 finish last year.
He's not a great driver of the ball (which is a concern), but the rest of his game is excellent. He's top 30 in this field in approach, around the green, and putting.
He rates out extremely well in my two new metrics: Weighted Proximity (based on approach shot distances at this course) and Expected Hole Performance (based on hole lengths at this course).
Ben Kohles to Win (+7400, DraftKings) and Top 10 (+650, FanDuel)
Kohles feels like the most mispriced golfer on the board this week. He's rattled off six straight top 30 finishes with a win and a third-place finish during that stretch.
The underlying metrics suggest this is not just a flash in the pan. Over the last six months, he's second in this field in both Good Drive Percentage and Strokes Gained: Approach. He's a positive putter, and he's one of the best at avoiding bogeys.
He's an elite fit for the course on paper, and it's not surprising to see that he's finished in the top 25 at this event in each of the last two years.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top 10 (+650, FanDuel) and Top 20 (+280, FanDuel)
I'm not sure Bezuidenhout has winning upside this week, but my model loves his top 10 and top 20 odds.
He's not a good driver of the ball, but he's at least fairly accurate. The rest of his game is in great shape, as he's top 30 in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, and Strokes Gained: Putting over the last 6 months.
He tends to pop on courses where distance isn't extremely important, which is likely why he's popping this week.
He finished T20 here last year, and he's posted top 25 finishes in two of his last three starts on TOUR.
Zachary Bauchou Top 20 (+430, FanDuel)
Bauchou has never played this event, but he has a good track record on easy courses and on courses with a lot of water danger.
He already has seven top 25 finishes on TOUR this season, so +430 in a weak field like this screams value.
He should find this course to his liking, as he's an excellent iron player and one of the best in the field at avoiding bogeys.
Zac Blair Top 20 (+430, FanDuel)
I considered betting Blair to win this week, but I ultimately settled on a top 20 bet. He's made five straight cuts and has posted back-to-back top 10 finishes.
He's not a good driver of the ball, but he does hit a lot of fairways. He's very good on approach, and he's very good at avoiding bogeys.
While many will find the water this week, he should be able to avoid the big numbers for the most part. He's 2-for-3 in cuts made at this event with a T14 finish last year.
Good luck this week!
