This week, we head to TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota, for the 3M Open.
While many golfers look to get into form over the course of the tournament, there are more ways to bet on this tournament than just who will emerge victorious on Sunday.
For more instant gratification, we turn to the first-round leader market to find value on who will sit atop the leaderboard when play comes to an end on Thursday.
Here are my favorite 3M Open first-round leader picks and PGA Tour predictions for Thursday's opening round.
3M Open First-Round Leader Picks
First-Round Leader Pick: Tom Kim (+4500 at BetMGM)
While TPC Twin Cities is a relatively easy stop on the PGA Tour schedule, the course still plays long and requires strong mid- to long-iron play. Last year, nearly 40% of approach shots came from the 150-200-yard range.
This setup makes Tom Kim a strong target in this market.
Entering this week, Kim ranks in the 94th percentile on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach from 150-200 yards. Therefore, it's not surprising that he has played solid golf here in his two appearances, finishing T26 in 2022 and T28 in 2025.
A jump in performance could be in store this year, given his recent form. While Kim missed the cut at last week’s Open Championship, he is just two weeks removed from his win at the Genesis Scottish Open.
That victory marked Kim’s third top-six finish in his previous seven tournaments, and the missed cut at the Open Championship is not overly concerning given the difference in competition compared to this week’s 3M Open.
First-Round Leader Pick: Max Homa (+6000 at FanDuel)
Another golfer worth targeting in Thursday’s opening round is Max Homa. Like Kim, Homa fits this course well.
His iron play has improved significantly, as he has gained true strokes on approach in four of his past five tournaments. As a result, he has made the cut in all five of those events, including a runner-up finish at the John Deere Classic.
TPC Deere Run plays similarly to TPC Twin Cities, as both courses are long but easy to score on, with above-average fairway and green accuracy. With greens relatively easy to hit, converting putts will be critical in what is expected to be a birdie-fest.
The good news for Homa is that putting is his greatest strength. This season, he ranks in the 88th percentile on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting.
This course sets up well for him, which is why he recorded a T3 finish here and could contend again this week.
