One week away from the third major of the year, and I do have to say that we get a very vanilla course to lead us into the U.S. Open here at TPC Toronto.
On paper, TPC Toronto looks like a long 7,445-yard Par 70 that might demand some distance off the tee. However, we watched the tournament set up the tee boxes almost every day in a much shorter fashion, resulting in nearly 300 of those expected yards being wiped off the books and generating a funky tournament that produced "easy expectations" across the slate of all four critical strokes gained categories.
That changed the expectation marginally and highlighted a driver-heavy venue. It is almost as if we get the answer that this is a very easy U.S. Open, with the need to hit your driver well and avoid pitfalls. That might be why there is merit in the decision for golfers who did decide to make the trip to Canada, although I do question the overall test because of its ease.
I have my concerns that this lack of identity makes the betting board way too convoluted to find any real answers to trust, but let's dive into my 2026 RBC Canadian Open picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week's event.
2026 RBC Canadian Open Outright Picks
Aaron Rai 45/1
What does Aaron Rai have to do to garner some respect in the market? A PGA Championship win might be doing it in his head-to-head battles, but we see him below all of those same names he is favored over in the outright market when shopping around.
In fairness, Rai does have a negative trajectory for upside inside my sheet overall. We see that with him falling from a top-10 golfer to a name outside the top 10, but the key to that answer comes down to a price tag that puts him closer to 20th at some locations when comparing his price to everyone else in the field.
Rai ranked second in my model this week for Weighted Strokes Gained Total when mirroring the stats to fit TPC Toronto, and the form is notable with three straight top-20 finishes. I don't think the ceiling matches that of the top-end names in the field, but the safety places him above most. That's good enough for me to take a shot at 45/1. Betting is all about value.
Eric Cole 50/1
From one under-respected commodity to another. We have seen this return from Eric Cole before if diving into hot form and a failure for the market to react. All those high-end finishes didn't move the needle from a weekly perspective when he entered the PGA Tour and gave a very similar output.
The difference for me this go-around is that the model is starting to respect Cole's upside more than it ever has in the past. Sure, a first-place rank for Strokes Gained Total over the last 24 rounds of this field will naturally render that belief. Still, it has more to do with this immense approach upside and stout short game that needs an average driving expectation to finally get him over the finish line.
Cole is trending in all the best ways possible, and I don't want to overlook that for a golfer who has delivered 24 straight rounds of shooting par or better.
Mac Meissner 75/1
Meissner is a name you are familiar with in my work if you have been following my content in 2026. Honestly, he and Cole are just me playing my greatest hits on repeat every week.
We did see the wheels unravel for him at the Memorial, with his 46th-place finish. However, I was still able to hit a head-to-head bet with him over Pierceson Coody. Maybe that's why I am ignoring that result at its core.
Meissner is the number-one Weighted Scorer in my model when projecting the exact distances for all 18 holes. We also see an uptick in Easy Scoring tests and high-end proximity from the key buckets. I always worry a little about his pure win equity, but I think these prices are baking that into the mix.
Zachary Bauchou 140/1
Looking for a lottery ticket? Wrap a bow on this and chew on it. ***I liked it better when I thought his last name was pronounced BA-CHOW, and I could do the KA-POW features on all his images. This will have to work for now.
My model has been consistently providing these returns for Bauchou for about a month now. That resulted in a few head-to-head wins at the CJ Cup and might be ready to strike again at what my model deems to be an 'Easy Scoring' test.
The splits for him at birdie fests versus challenging contests deliver a stark contrast, which is why some of his more recent performances when faced with a challenge should still be considered impressive.
Bauchou is a lottery ticket, sure. But he grades as if he were a sub-70/1 golfer in this field.
Brooks Koepka 35/1
For all the safety on my card this week, Koepka is the opposite of that expectation.
The putter is going to have to be substantially better than we have seen in the past few months, but I do want to note that his 100th-place rank for putting in my model has moved into the top 60 over his past 24 rounds. That isn't something to write home about, but it does add intrigue if the projection for putting outside 10 feet does remain true.
The floor is going to be a missed cut. The ceiling is Koepka stamping his name back on the leaderboard as a real threat weekly. A week before a major for the 'big game hunter' would make sense, and it makes even more sense to get it at this enhanced number. We shouldn't care about what the low-end of this output renders.
2026 RBC Canadian Open Matchup Pick
Doug Ghim -132 over HaoTong Li
We have been on a bit of a heater on these over the past 5-6 weeks. It is always nice to see the play within this article get across the finish line.
This week will be challenging to discuss pricing, as all three matchups I am on moved a ton of points within 24 hours of being given (you can find the one above for only an 18-point move if you shop around).
I am not going to sit here and examine plays at prices not worth taking, but for the sake of this article, let's talk about which matchup had the biggest value difference when things released on Monday and still technically has some value. It might help you find something in the market elsewhere involving one of these options. You might even be able to catch your book sleeping at the wheel when it comes to this particular play. As always, numbers move fast. The best chance of finding these prices will always be in my Discord channel.
HaoTong Li has been someone I have consistently faded in bets over the past two months. The upside is noteworthy. We saw that at the Masters when he entered Sunday in contention. However, the downside is also significant in this conversation. HaoTong has rendered three missed-cut performances in his last four tournaments, highlighted by a Masters finish that resulted in a Sunday 80 to drop him to 38th on the leaderboard outside of that mentioned zone of recent results. The good is great. The bad is bet-winning terrible.
None of that is to say that Dog Ghim is safe. I have been on the wrong end of his 'Ghim Reaper' status more than I can count. Honestly, it is a miracle I continue to keep coming back for more. The thing is, though, Ghim's recent tournament volatility hasn't affected his weekend status of late, as he's made six of seven cuts and finished inside the top 40 on all Sunday leaderboards when he's played four rounds.
I get the hesitation of laying juice on this pairing. I get it even more now that the market has drifted this up to -150, but I had proper on this matchup at -167 and do consider Li's boom-or-bust nature to be a positive for matchup bets. It doesn't mean we don't see Li generate one of his random top-10 showings when he does get into contention, but 11 straight tournaments outside the top 30 is enough for me to take a swing every week that we get a bet-worthy price.
We aren't going to win every time, but as we have seen over the past two months, we will win more than we need to at these current prices to warrant weekly consideration against Li.
My biggest fear comes down to Ghim and his expectations. I never trust what we might get from him. The safety numbers of 14th versus 96th is where this bet excels in my model, though. I am going to trust that, even if safety and Ghim don't go together in the same sentence. Maybe that is why the market started this lower than expected? Maybe I am too forgiving of Ghim? He will see.
