Everyone is looking forward to Saturday's Kentucky Derby, but that's not the only race taking place at Churchill Downs this weekend.
The Kentucky Oaks takes place today, Friday, May 1, and our horse racing experts have found plenty of value on the board.
Mike Conti and Sean Zerillo hopped on the latest edition of the Action Network Podcast to break down their Kentucky Oaks best bets, and give their picks and predictions for today's card.
Naturally, they also dove into Saturday's Kentucky Derby, so be sure to look for those picks as well.
| Horse | Odds | Expert |
|---|---|---|
| #11 Percy's Bar | 6-1 | Mike Conti |
| #9 Always a Runner | 6-1 | Sean Zerillo |
| #10 Prom Queen | 9-1 | Sean Zerillo |
Specific betting recommendations feature the preferred odds as of writing. Remember to always shop for the best price(s) available. | ||
Percy's Bar (6-1)
Percy's Bar is my top selection here for a few big reasons. First, you have to look at the stats: since 2000, only five horses have won the Oaks that didn't win their prior race. That means 80% of the time, you need a winner, and Percy's Bar just won the Grade 1 Ashland. Plus, over the past 25 years, eight winners came out of the Fairgrounds Oaks, and eight came out of the Ashland.
But it’s more than just the numbers; it's about the heart she showed.
If you go back and watch that Breeders' Cup Juvenile Philly race, she starts to make a move, then gets absolutely slammed into the rail — to the point I was worried about the horse and Luan Machado falling off. Just think, if you’re sprinting as fast as you can and you get hit in the ribs, it'll knock the wind out of you. However, she still finished with interest, then came back in the Ashland and won pretty convincingly.
At 6-1, she's my top choice.
— Mike Conti
Always a Runner (6-1)
The Kentucky Oaks is a deep race, but my model projection is showing a very interesting edge on #9 Always a Runner.
It’s the exact same setup I’m looking at with Emerging Market for Chad Brown in the Kentucky Derby. We’re talking about a horse with just two lifetime starts, and while some may be scared off by the lack of experience, this is a new era of horse racing.
If you’re ever going to trust a trainer to get a horse set for the Oaks off of only two starts, it’s probably going to be Brown. My model identifies this as one of the biggest potential value edges in the field, specifically based on my handicapping information, past speed scores, and trainer fit.
— Sean Zerillo
Prom Queen (9-1)
If you're looking for another horse that the math says has a serious edge, it’s the #10 Prom Queen.
Along with Always a Runner, Prom Queen popped up as one of the biggest potential model edges for me in this year's Oaks. I’ve built this similar to my Derby model, incorporating speed scores, jockey-trainer fit, and overall handicapping data to attempt to find where the market might be missing. There are about eight different horses people think can win this race — like Zany or Percy’s Bar — but in terms of pure model value, I have Prom Queen highlighted as a potential value bet.
If you're building out your tickets or looking at the Oaks-Derby double, she’s a name you have to consider.
— Sean Zerillo
Other Contenders
#1 Explora (6-1): Trained by Bob Baffert, she's a "gem of consistency." She has never finished outside the top two in seven career starts, and her win in the Honeybee (G3) was a massive statement. Additionally, she holds the highest career-top speed rating (100) in the entire field.
#2 Zany (4-1): The long-time favorite is trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. She dominated her first three starts, including an 8 1/2-length romp in the Demoiselle (G2), and although she was recently beaten by Percy’s Bar in the Ashland, many experts believe she was compromised by a slow pace and is primed for a massive rebound.
#5 Meaning (5-1): The current points leader on the Oaks leaderboard is 2-for-2 this year, including a dominant win in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2). She handed Explora a defeat earlier this season, proving she can beat the best in the field.
#3 Search Party (30-1): While she is a long shot on the morning line, she is mentioned here because of her elite pedigree (by Gun Runner) and her win in the Martha Washington Stakes. She is also a top "wet track" threat, possessing one of the highest Tomlinson ratings in the field if rain impacts Churchill Downs.
