2024 PLL Championship Series Picks: Best Bets for Archers vs. Redwoods, Cannons vs. Waterdogs
Photo courtesy of PLL
The Premier Lacrosse League Championship Series continues with two Saturday matchups and I have a pick for each game. At the start of this round robin tournament, I gave my four tips for betting the PLL Championship Series and on Friday we cashed our first bet bet of the 2024 PLL Championship Series. So we'll try to keep the positive momentum going on Saturday night.
Let's dive into my best bets for Archers vs. Redwoods and Cannons vs. Waterdogs.
If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check out my guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.
Utah Archers vs. California Redwoods
| Utah (+4.5) Odds | +210 |
| California (-4.5) Odds | -280 |
| Total | 41.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 5 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Utah Archers and California Redwoods face off in the first game on Saturday, with California entering as a 4.5-point favorite. In my opinion, this spread is too large and the margin between these teams is closer than the spread indicates.
California lost both Ricky Miezan and Garrett Epple to injury last game and their absence is bigger than it may seem. While their replacement, Kyle Long, will be a solid addition to the roster from an offensive standpoint, the injuries to Miezan and Epple leave just Nakeie Montgomery and Brian Tevlin as the only defensive-minded midfielders on the roster.
While Long can likely replace Miezan’s offensive production, he leaves a big hole on defense, especially in transition. While Archers will be without Cole Williams, who also sustained an injury on Friday, his loss won’t be as impactful.
I’d make this line closer to -2.5 for Redwoods even if they were at full strength.
Utah showed improvement in their second game against Boston even if the final score of 26-19 wasn’t as close as their first game. Archers had success matching Boston’s run-and-gun style and simply ran out of steam in the second half. While Waterdogs played sound defense against the Archers, Cannons were less concerned with playing tight defense and more concerned with converting defensive possessions into transition opportunities — never relenting, even in the fourth quarter. I expect Archers to exploit Redwoods’ holes on the defensive end.
Furthermore, Archers goaltender Nick Washuta has the best save percentage of any goalie in the series, stopping 51.5% of the shots he faced. He’s the only keeper to have more saves than goals allowed and has allowed just one 2-point goal the entire series.
Now, I still expect Utah to have Patrick Burkinshaw and Washuta split time in net at least for this final round robin game. Yet, if Archers can keep it close during Burkinshaw’s half, then they’ll have a great chance at covering this large spread and potentially even win outright.
Pick: Archers +4.5
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Boston Cannons vs. Philadelphia Waterdogs
| Boston (-1.5) Odds | -106 |
| Philadelphia (+1.5) Odds | -114 |
| Total | 42.5 |
| Time | Saturday · 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds via FanDuel
The second game of the night featuring the Boston Cannons and Philadelphia Waterdogs could be a preview of the eventual PLL Championship Series final. The game is close to a pick ‘em and I’m not ready to pick a side between these two teams just yet. Instead, I’m targeting the total of 42.5 on FanDuel.
The Cannons’ strategy has been very apparent through two games: force teams into an up-and-down track meet and edge out their opponents by playing fast and scoring two-pointers. Boston didn’t even seem too concerned with allowing low-contested shots in either game, trusting its ability to generate transition chances and two-point possessions off quick restarts. Whether they’ll be able to win by deploying that strategy against the Waterdogs, who also found success shooting beyond the arc and can match Cannons’ run-and-gun style, remains to be seen. Yet, Boston’s fast pace should certainly lead to a higher scoring game.
Philadelphia has dominated both of their matchups so far and shown the ability to score in a variety of ways. They won both games by starting off fast, building a lead and then slowing down their pace to secure a win. Yet, don’t expect them to do this against Boston. Waterdogs will need to match Cannons’ offensive output while relying on Matt DeLuca's play in net in order to win.
I expect Philly to match the tempo of Boston and lean on their ability to shoot from range even more than they usually do. Both Boston and Philadelphia have scored the most 2-point goals and taken the most 2-point shots, with Cannons averaging 11 2-pointers on 34 shots and Waterdogs scoring eight on 35 shots. Both teams also take the most shots in general, with Cannons averaging 48.5 shots per game and Waterdogs averaging 43.
Furthermore, while Adam Ghitelman’s ability to generate transition chances for Cannons has been underrated, he’s really struggled between the pipes, with only a 25% save percentage so far. Colin Kirst has performed better, stopping 40.6% of the shots he’s faced, but the Waterdogs have the offense to exploit both opposing goaltenders.
I expect this total to finish closer to the 45-48 goal range and recommend betting over 42.5.
Pick: Over 42.5
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