Athletics vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - April 1, 2026

Threw a couple of pesos on this tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

#EV Pinny +155 Circa +155

Sale looked like his usual self in his first start, striking out 6 Royals and showing no signs of slowing down at age 37. His slider remains one of the best putaway pitches in MLB history, and this is clearly not a bet against his talent. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he rips off 10+ Ks here. That said, I think the market might be overreacting a bit to the A’s league-leading 38% K rate so far. We’re five games in, which means we finally have some regular season data, but it’s still an incredibly small sample. I project this lineup to be much closer to league average than what we’ve seen so far. Jacob Wilson has been one of the toughest players to strike out early in his career but is off to a slow start with a 24% K rate. I’m expecting him to settle back closer to the ~10% range, and having him leading off does chip away at Sale’s expected K rate. Same goes for Darell Hernaiz, who has a 67% K rate in just 3 plate appearances, but should profile as a tougher K than that. There are obviously still plenty of easy Ks in this lineup. I have Denzel Clarke at around a 50%(!) chance to strike out in his first plate appearance, but Sale is likely only going to face him twice. So while Sale should get his usual pitch count in the 95 range and face around 24 hitters, I’m still projecting him closer to -155 to stay under 8.5. Maybe the A’s really have changed their approach, Wilson is suddenly a 25% K guy, and the rest of the lineup keeps striking out at an elevated rate. If that’s the case, we’ll learn that pretty quickly over the next couple of weeks and adjust. This isn’t for the faint of heart, but I think there’s enough signal here to bet on Sale pitching well, landing in that 7-8 K range, and still cashing the under.

📚Onyx

Bet to -235. Split with F5

Analysis on Twitter… Coming off a 20U March lets keep it rolling

Bet to -250. Biggest edges for Wednesday are all F5 on day games. One star sits day after a night game like an Acuna and the bet goes from +EV to neutral or -EV so need to be careful with staking in these day after night spots May have other additions with updated morning weather or after lineups but slate looks light for now (encouraging that the model is tight to market)