Pirates vs. Athletics Odds & Betting Predictions - June 16, 2026

Jones has been eased back into action after returning from a UCL sprain that fortunately didn’t require Tommy John surgery. The surface stats haven’t been great, with a 4.87 ERA and 24.1% K rate through his first 3 starts, but he’s absolutely popping in my expected K model. I have him closer to a 31% expected K rate so far, driven largely by an excellent 35% whiff rate. What’s encouraging is he’s not relying on just one pitch to get there. Jones has mixed in his changeup and curveball more frequently alongside his heavy 4-seamer/slider combination, and all four pitches are generating whiffs at a high rate. His fastball velocity is up nearly 1.5 mph from last season and is generating a 26% whiff rate on its own, while his three secondary pitches are all sitting between 38%-50% whiff rates. That’s the profile of a pitcher whose strikeout numbers could jump in a hurry. The biggest concern is the environment. Sutter Health Park is a hitter-friendly venue and temperatures should be pushing 90 degrees, which could make it more difficult for him to work deep into the game. However, he’s been capped around 75 pitches so far, so there’s also a decent chance we see his longest outing of the season if the training wheels come off a bit and he’s allowed to reach the 80-85 pitch range. The A’s lineup also projects to include two very tough strikeouts in Jacob Wilson and Jeff McNeil. If either one happens to be out of the lineup when it’s officially released, that would only improve Jones’ outlook. This feels like a sneaky buy-low spot on a pitcher who may be on the verge of a breakout strikeout performance. I wouldn’t be surprised if a 7+ K game is coming very soon, which also makes some of the alt overs worth a look. I’m projecting him closer to -170 to clear 4.5 strikeouts, and that’s using the A’s toughest projected lineup to strike out. Fingers crossed the official lineup is even better.

THE BAT X is forecasting 4.17 strikeouts for J.T. Ginn compared to 4.95 strikeouts implied by the oddsmakers, so I believe there is value here. If you take the under, you'd be projected to win 60% of the time, resulting in a 34% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $33.58. This play is good down to at least -120. Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/mlb?ref=zdlkmgz

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Bet to -110