Rays vs. Guardians Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2022

Rays at Guardians

10:10 pm • BSGL

Tampa Bay Rays

0-0

1 - 2

Cleveland Guardians

1-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
T.McKenzie			2.96	11-11
T.Glasnow			1.35	0-0

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Rays 0-0	+1.5-210	o6-118	+112
Guardians 1-2	-1.5+180	u6+102	-132

Wednesday 10:10 p.m.

September 28, 2022

Progressive FieldCleveland

TB +110

0.5u

Wynn. Bet to +105. Would make no sense for Clase, Hentges or Karinchak to pitch tonight. Rays full bullpen likely available

Under 3.5 (F5)-140

0.71u

Under 6.5-118

0.42u

TB +110

Fanduel 11:47 am EST. Not just picking on the Guardians or Mackenzie, who came through big for me on this take from the NY Post in April https://nypost.com/2022/04/08/mlb-picks-athletics-guardians-win-totals-are-worth-betting/ . Article:

CLE -110 (F5)

0.75u

T. Glasnow o3.5 Ks+115

0.2u

Glasnow is back! He averages about 1 K per 10 pitches. Expecting 45-50 pitches today. I think the juice should be flipped - He just struck out 6 guys in 45 pitches in AAA. Have him around 4.4 Ks.

Rays-Guardians: How to Bet Glasnow's Return
Nick Martin•
Sep 28, 2022 UTC

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The Guardians are 24-7 (.774) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season -- 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

Taylor Walls is batting just .173 this season -- fourth worst among hitters with at least 229 total PA's-- first Percentile. Left handed batters are hitting just .191 (51-for-267) against Triston McKenzie this season -- tied for sixth best among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP-- 94th Percentile.

Triston McKenzie allowed a batting average of just .171 vs right-handed batters (10th best)-- 83rd Percentile and .304 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (10th worst among qualified SPs)-- 18th Percentile.

Triston McKenzie has a strike rate of 75% (142/189) -- 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% -- 98th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Guardians are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Guardians are 47-34 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Guardians' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Guardians' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	86-76	39-42	47-34	33-36	51-38
Rays	73-89	35-46	38-43	29-46	43-41

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Guardians	69-87-6	37-41-3	32-46-3	34-34-1	34-50-5
Rays	71-81-10	36-41-4	35-40-6	32-37-6	38-42-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	88-74	45-36	43-38	44-25	43-46
Rays	77-85	41-40	36-45	42-33	34-50

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 27th	TB	L 5-6	-1.5 L	O 6.5	TB -155
Sep 25th	@TEX	W 10-4	-1.5 W	O 8	CLE -136
Sep 24th	@TEX	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 8	CLE -130
Sep 24th	@TEX	W 6-3	+1.5 W	O 7.5	CLE +108
Sep 23rd	@CWS	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 7	CLE -149

Ben Lively
SP
Lively is out with elbow
Out
John Means
SP
Means is out with elbow
Out

Alex Faedo
RP
Faedo is out with shoulder
Out
Taylor Walls
SS
Walls is out with groin
Out
Shane McClanahan
SP
McClanahan is out with triceps
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Glasnow, P	50	3	3	1
LG.Cleavinger, P	21	1	2	0
RC.Faucher, P	33	1.2	2	0
LB.Raley, P	3	0.1	1	0
LC.Poche, P	13	1	3	0
RJ.Adam, P	22	1	2	0
RP.Fairbanks, P	15	1	1	0
RJ. Guerra, P	2	0.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1M.Margot, RF	1-5	0	0
2R.Arozarena, LF	0-4	0	0
3W. Franco, SS	0-4	0	0
4H.Ramirez, DH	0-4	0	0
5J. Choi, 1B	2-3	1	0
5M.Mastrobuoni, PR	0-1	0	0
5M.Mastrobuoni, 2B	0-1	0	0
6I.Paredes, 3B	1-3	0	0
6I.Paredes, 1B	1-3	0	0
6I.Paredes, 3B	1-3	0	0
7C.Bethancourt, C	1-4	0	1
8T.Walls, 2B	0-1	0	0
8T.Walls, 3B	0-1	0	0
8J.Aranda, PH	0-1	0	0
8J.Aranda, 1B	0-1	0	0
9J.Siri, CF	1-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RT.McKenzie, P	88	6	6	1
LS.Hentges, P	20	0.1	1	0
RE.Morgan, P	16	1.2	1	0
RE.Clase, P	13	1	2	0
RJ.Karinchak, P	15	1	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Kwan, LF	2-4	0	0	0
2T.Freeman, SS	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Ramirez, DH	0-4	0	0	0
4J.Naylor, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
5O.Gonzalez, RF	0-3	1	0	0
6A.Gimenez, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
7G.Arias, 3B	1-3	1	1	1
8W.Brennan, CF	1-3	0	0	0
9L.Maile, C	0-3	0	0	0
9A.Rosario, PH	1-1	0	0	1