MLB Picks Today: Rays vs. Guardians Betting Preview (Wednesday, September 28)
Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Glasnow #20 of the Tampa Bay Rays.
- The Tampa Bay Rays continue their road series in Cleveland Wednesday against the Guardians.
- Rays pitcher Tyler Glasnow will make his return to mound, but the Guardians enter the matchup as home favorites (-125).
- Nicholas Martin analyzes the matchup and gives his betting pick.
Rays vs. Guardians Odds
| Rays Odds | +105 |
| Guardians Odds | -125 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 (-105/-115) |
| Time | 6:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Coupled with a Baltimore Orioles loss, the Tampa Bay Rays' 6-5 win in Tuesday's series opener brings their magic number down to just three, in what will go as yet another impressive playoff berth for MLB's low-budget giant.
The Rays could be receiving a massive boost at just the right time, as Tyler Glasnow will make his return to the mound Wednesday, and has the potential to be a legitimate ace when true to form.
Glasnow will battle with Triston McKenzie, who has been in spectacular form of late and will be a crucial part of the Guardians playoff hopes himself.
Will Glasnow return in strong form Wednesday?
What Will the Rays Get From Glasnow?
Glasnow will return to the Rays rotation after missing over 13 months since undergoing Tommy John surgery on Aug. 4, 2021. Glasnow was tremendous in the 2021 season, pitching to an xERA of 2.74 and an actual mark of 2.64.
Glasnow has looked strong in his return to AAA ball, throwing his four-seamer, slider, and curveball true to form throughout four appearances leading to an ERA of 1.29 with 14 K's throughout seven innings.
The Rays have continued to find ways to scrape together reasonable offensive outputs, even as meaningful injuries have continued to mount all season long.
Tampa's bullpen has pitched to the sixth-best ERA league wide (3.03) over the past 30 days. If Glasnow can get the Rays into a strong position early, we should see manager Kevin Cash throw quality arms looking to lock up its wild card spot before beginning to set the rotation and bullpen up for a best-of-three wild card series.
Over the past 30 days, the Rays have hit to a 102 wRC+, which is just as productive as their opponent, the Guardians, have been over the same span.
Yandy Diaz did pinch-hit in yesterday's contest and does expect to be in today's lineup, which is massive news for the Rays as they look to get healthy at the right time.
Cleveland Beating Up on Bad Teams
Triston McKenzie's spectacular form since the All-Star break has gone to a new level over his past two outings: The talented 25-year old has thrown 20 strikeouts without a single walk, and allowed just 5 ER throughout 15 innings.
McKenzie's dominant outing last time out against the Chicago White Sox was essentially the final nail in the coffin for the Southsiders' hopes in the division, and he will look to stay in strong form Wednesday.
This has been the best stretch of ball in Mckenzie's entire career however, and I do feel that the market could be somewhat high on him now as a result, even if this run is just also a 25-year old with massive upside reaching potential.
Cleveland has hit to a wRC+ of 102 over the last 30 days, which is exactly on par with the Rays during that span. It's worth noting that Cleveland has faced a far softer schedule than the Rays during that time, a trend to keep in mind in this AL Central vs. AL East battle.
Cleveland has posted a 13-17 record versus the AL East this season, compared to it's 43-27 dominance in the notably soft Central division and I believe that the discrepancy in level of competition faced is relevant considering all splits between these teams.
Rays-Guardians Pick
Even with Glasnow likely to manage just three innings on his pitch count, I still believe the Rays hold a bit of an edge in this outing, and I'm willing to back Tampa in Glasnow's return.
I'm confident Glasnow is going to be stellar moving forward after his Tommy John, and feel this could be a bit of a sell-high type contest on Mackenzie and the Guardians, who are just playing to stay-sharp at this point.
I believe that even at full-strength Cleveland's offense is quietly lesser than Tampa's, especially considering it's inflated numbers playing out of the AL Central, and there's a possibility aside from that a couple of bodies come out of the lineup for Terry Francona.
That notion will also go towards the bullpen usage, and if we see Glasnow stake the Rays to an early lead we should see some elite pitchers out of the Rays pen, and possibly not so much from Cleveland.
At +110 I see value backing a Rays win in this spot, where Cleveland's overall record in a painfully soft AL Central may factor into the number just a little.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline +110 (Play to +105)
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