2024 MLB Best Bets | Picks, Predictions for Win Totals, MVP, Cy Young, More
Getty Images. Pictured: Bobby Witt Jr., Corbin Carroll, Zack Wheeler.
Step aside, football, the countdown to MLB season is on.
It's hard to believe if your head has been buried in the plethora of football content available leading up to Sunday's Super Bowl, but baseball season is right around the corner. Teams will begin reporting to spring training this week, the first spring training game Feb. 22, and we are just 37 days away from the Dodgers and Padres getting the season underway in Korea.
You know what that means: It's time to dive into MLB futures!
Markets for a variety of categories have been released for some time now, from win totals to World Series, pennant and divisional odds, to awards, stat leaders and more.
The MLB offseason is a long, slow slog, so you're forgiven if you haven't kept up with it all. But don't worry, we've got you covered.
With football in the rear-view window, our MLB analysts have put together their favorite MLB futures worth jumping on right now. Yes, tying up a portion of your bankroll all the way through October isn't the most appealing option in the world, but if you're a baseball bettor and looking for value, this is the article for you.
Here are our best 2024 MLB future bets to jump in on before it's too late.
For updated MLB odds on all 2024 futures at a variety of sportsbooks, be sure to visit and bookmark our MLB odds page.
2024 MLB Futures
Win Totals
Collin Wilson: There are a ton of positives for a team that has struggled to find an identity over the past seven seasons.
Starting with the future, Bobby Witt Jr. has been signed to the biggest contract in franchise history, giving Kansas City a multi-position player that will challenge 30-30 every season.
The pitching staff is boosted by Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo, both able to produce efficient innings.
Offensively, there are position players that will progress at the plate. Vinny Pasquantino provides lineup protection for both Witt and Salvador Perez.
Davenport and ZIPS both call for win totals above 73.5, as this Royals team is one of the few squads to project upward in the worst division of Major League Baseball.
Team Futures
Jim Turvey: Yes, the AL East is absolutely stacked and looking scarier by the minute with David Rubenstein buying the Orioles. But this is a Rays team that won 99 games last year and had by far the best advanced team numbers (Pythag, BaseRuns, Injury win-loss) of any team in the division.
The case against them is that the Yankees and Orioles, in particular, have gotten better, while the Rays have seen Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot leave town. However, no team has proven itself more capable of being a Perpetual Replacement Machine than Tampa Bay, and their rotation is just as stacked with electric young arms this season — just ones you don't know as well yet (Shane Baz, Taj Bradley).
This number is simply too long. Would I make them the division favorites? No. Would I give them more than a 12.5 percent chance of winning the division? Absolutely. And every worthy projection system agrees.
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Collin Wilson: Ownership and management of the Cincinnati Reds did not expect the team to blossom as fast as it did in the 2023 season. While no major contributors were added to the team, the Reds made considerable moves in December with productive role players.
The rotation of Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft and Nick Lodolo are all expected to improve from their high-ERA and injury-plagued seasons. Infielder Matt McLain will return to a lineup after a stellar rookie season, only to be in the shadows of Elly De La Cruz.
Cincinnati won 82 games a season ago, a number Davenport and ZIPS expect the Reds to repeat. In a division with contenders that have plenty of questions, Reds management may be the biggest investors at the trade deadline for a division and playoff push.
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Awards
Alex Hinton: Last season, Tarik Skubal did not debut until the Fourth of July. However, when he returned, he was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.
In 15 starts, he posted a 2.80 ERA, 2.0 WAR, 2.30 xERA, 2.00 FIP with 102 strikeouts in 80 1/3 innings. He also ranked in the 90th percentile or better in chase rate, strikeout percentage, walk percentage and barrel percentage.
Skubal has not thrown 150 innings in a season yet in his career. However, with Eduardo Rodriguez in Arizona now, Skubal is the undisputed ace in Detroit. If he replicates last year's performance for an entire season, he may be recognized as the AL's best pitcher this season.
Brad Cunningham: Bobby Miller has been bumped down to third in the Dodgers' rotation, but he honestly might have the best stuff. In 22 regular season starts last season, Miller posted a 3.45 xERA and a 3.75 xFIP, but that is just the start.
He was in the 98th percentile among MLB starting pitchers for fastball velocity (averaging 98.9 mph), and then he brings a sinker averaging 98.7 mph with 19 inches of run on it.
Over the second half of last season, Miller had a Stuff+ rating of 123, which was second best in the National League to only Corbin Burnes, who is now over in the American League with the Orioles. His curveball and slider were both top five in the National League and opposing hitters had a lot of trouble against both of those pitches, as they both were allowing under a .290 xwOBA.
In terms of potential, given the stuff that he has I don’t think there is a better value bet on the board than Miller. He’s got stuff that is just as good as the favorite, Spencer Strider, and will also have a big-time benefit of pitching with a lead for a majority of the time given the fact that the Dodgers have the best lineup in baseball.
Plus, given the fact that the Dodgers brought in Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the spotlight is not going to be on him, which will be a huge benefit in his second year in the big leagues.
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Kenny Ducey: You may say that Royce Lewis is injury prone after two ACL surgeries, an oblique strain and most recently a hamstring issue last season. I say – there’s nothing that can kill this man, he may in fact be a superhero.
Lewis could very well miss many more games this season, but what is indisputable is that when he’s been on the field, he’s been one of the very best in the league. The former No. 1 overall pick owns a 149 OPS+ through his first 280 career plate appearances, and after he returned from a mid-season injury last season on August 15th, there were just major-league 11 hitters who made 100 plate appearances to register a higher wRC+ than Lewis’ mark of 155. In the American League, there were just six.
The price on Lewis here is simply too to good pass up given his dominance at the plate in just his first full season. He has incredible talent and will only get better – and if he manages to play in just 120 games this season I think he should be squarely in the mix for this award, particularly with Shohei Ohtani now wearing a Dodgers uniform. He’ll have the benefit of hitting towards the top of a good lineup in Minnesota and neither of his two primary competitors – Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez – played in more than 114 games last year.
Betting on Lewis to stay healthy is certainly a roll of the dice, but with the Twins doing everything in their power to protect him from another catastrophic injury by taking him out of center field and moving him to third base, I think there’s much better of a chance he wins this award than oddsmakers think.
Collin Wilson: Not many players can keep up with the production or Ronald Acuña Jr., as the Braves outfielder totaled 41 home runs and 73 stolen bases in 2023.
In order to compete for the NL MVP, a player must have the toolset to post Acuña-like numbers. Corbin Carroll comes off a massive rookie season, leading the Diamondbacks to the World Series. The Seattle native has the highest raw power and speed combination from a scouting perspective, posting 25 home runs and over 50 stolen bags.
Carroll is the one player on the NL odds board who can compete with Acuña not only in speed and power, but in defensive WAR as well. With Shohei Ohtani unable to pitch in the 2025 season, a good time to bet a longshot MVP future in the National League is this season.
Look for Carroll's potential 30/60 season to challenge Acuña for MVP votes.
Kenny Ducey: Rookie of the Year can be a highly volatile market. Just because someone wins this award, it does not mean they’re the most talented rookie or the one who will go on to have a better career. A lot of it is opportunity, and where a player’s level is at the present moment in time rather than their future value.
That’s why I like taking a big swing in the American League market. Yes, the thought of fading a blue-chip prospect like Evan Carter is a scary one with his .306/.413/.645 line in his first 75 plate appearances last season. But there was another guy to put up great counting stats in his first-ever taste of big league action – and his name is Dominic Fletcher.
Fletcher comes from a family that knows how to put the bat on the baseball, following in the footsteps of his brother, David, who owns a .277 career average for the Angels in six seasons and even received an MVP vote in 2020. While his brother was limited as a slap hitter, Dominic can drive the ball a bit better and thus probably has a higher ceiling at the next level.
All the former Arkansas Razorback has done is hit .295 across all minor-league levels and hit a blistering .312 last season before hitting .301 in 102 plate appearances with the Diamondbacks. Now in Chicago after a trade to the White Sox, he is projected to be the team’s Opening Day starter in right field and an important bat in the middle of the order.
Carter possesses more power and is the better all-around hitter, but it’s hard to take issue with a guy who slashed .301/.350/.441 in limited big league action last season. He’s arguably the most seasoned out of anyone gunning for this award at 26 years of age, and he should be locked into a season’s worth of games. If he comes close to hitting .300, I do think he’ll garner plenty of attention from voters – particularly if some of the flashier names in front of him are slow to adjust to big-league pitching.
Stat Leaders
D.J. James: Zack Wheeler is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and the current betting market is a bit disrespectful to a guy who threw nearly 200 innings last season and was one strikeout away from being the strikeout king in 2021. Wheeler is a great strikeout pitcher. He held a 26.9% strikeout rate the last two seasons. More importantly, he only walks about 5-6% of hitters, so this leaves more opportunities for stay in games late and accumulate more whiffs.
In contrast, Spencer Strider is the heavy favorite in this category and walks almost 8% of batters pretty consistently. Blake Snell just notched the Cy Young in the National League and walked 13.3% of batters. Basically, in a quest for the strikeout title, Wheeler does not hurt himself as much as other, prominent star competition may. It’s pretty simple.
The whiff rates on his sweeper/curveball and four-seam fastball have been consistently above 30% the last two seasons.
In a modern sense of pitching, starting pitchers just do not go as deep into games anymore, which leaves Wheeler with a leg-up on much of the competition. In 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2023, he logged at least 182 innings. This is crucial for a player to become the leader in MLB in strikeouts.
Wheeler has all of the ingredients for the strikeout crown in 2024. He should be priced closer to around +1800, so anything north of that is a fair play. +3000 is the highest I saw at FanDuel and jumped on it immediately.
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Jim Turvey:Harris started last season as cold as any hitter has ever been, hitting .163 as of May 23.
However, in the final 112 games of the season, he looked much more like the burgeoning superstar we saw in 2022. He hit .320 and would have paced for 194 hits over a full season had he maintained that rate over a full season.
He's only 22 still and only three hitters had more hits in the second half than Harris. At 100/1, this is a no brainer, and I would play to +5000.
I would also look at his flat season hits prop if your books has that. It is around 150-155 most places, and for Harris I like his floor almost as much as his ceiling.
Player Totals
Jim Turvey: The main route to this under is health. Bryant has played 122 games combined the last two seasons and with the Rockies likely in another desolate season, there’s no reason for him to push being out there.
But even if he stays healthy, he was only tracking for 20 homers if he somehow played 160 games (which I’m not even sure is within his actual 99 percentile outcome). The power has waned, and even though people think of Coors as a high run environment, it’s actually the massive outfield (and thin air) that lead to the runs, not the home runs specifically.
I’d play this to under 17.5.
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