Angels vs Orioles Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Expert Picks for Tuesday, May 16
Photo by Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Trout.
- The Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles continue their series on Tuesday night at Camden Yards.
- The Angels enter this game as underdogs, but our MLB expert makes the case that they should be favorites.
- Continue reading for Angels vs. Orioles analysis and a betting prediction.
Angels vs. Orioles Odds
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 9.5 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -172 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -130 | 9.5 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +142 |
The Baltimore Orioles are second to the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League East. They will pitch Dean Kremer against Chase Silseth of the Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday night.
Kremer has pitched well in his last two starts, allowing only one run over 12 innings. However, his expected numbers are not as encouraging. Silseth, who made seven starts in 2022, has mainly pitched out of the bullpen this season. He's been serviceable in that role, but shifts to the rotation for his first start of '23.
The Angels have hit right-handed pitching much better than the Orioles this season, and that could be the key to them pulling out the win in the second game of this series.
Continue reading for my analysis and moneyline pick for Angels vs. Orioles from Camden Yards.
Los Angeles Angels
Silseth's longest outing of the season is only 3 1/3 innings (73 pitches), so he needs to build up as he transitions from the 'pen. The good news is that he's only allowed an Average Exit Velocity of 87.2 mph, which would have him tied for 12th amongst qualified starting pitchers with teammate Patrick Sandoval.
He owns an ERA of 3.24 and an xERA of 3.82. Though he only has four appearances on the year, Silseth's early showings are impressive.
As noted above, Los Angeles has been above average offensively against righties.
The Halos have a team wRC+ of 102 and a .734 OPS. They have five hitters with an xwOBA above .320, including Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout over .400. Anthony Rendon, who has a .415 OBP this season, landed on the injured list on Monday, so that sets the lineup back. However, in May, the Angels improved their wRC+ to 104 off righties, so they are trending in the right direction.
The Angels bullpen has been about average. They have a team xFIP of 4.35, but have four arms below the 4.00 xFIP mark. This should help if Silseth can't pitch deep into the contest.
Baltimore Orioles
Kremer has been the weak link for Baltimore with a 4.97 ERA. This will likely get worse, as his xERA is 6.93. He is also yielding a Hard Hit rate of 47.7% and an Average Exit Velocity over 90 mph.
Teams have an xSLG of .562, which is amongst the lowest in the league. This should give enough of an edge to the Angels and Silseth.
The Orioles offense has struggled against right-handers. They have a 97 wRC+ with a .710 OPS on the season, and an 81 wRC+ with a .652 OPS in May. For what it's worth, they have five hitters who have an xwOBA over .320. Still, the Angels have the lineup edge.
Baltimore, however, has the superior bullpen. The O's own a team xFIP of 3.74 with a 28.7% strikeout rate.
Yennier Cano and Félix Bautista have been stellar, but outside of these two, only Danny Coulombe has a sub-4.00 xFIP. Bautista is filthy, so the Angels would prefer to be leading late in this one.
Félix Bautista, Domination. pic.twitter.com/Gg4taqJKFI
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 13, 2023
Even though the Orioles have better bullpen numbers, the Angels might have more reliable options. That said, Kremer does not walk many hitters, so even if the Angels knock him around, he can probably notch at least five innings.
Angels vs. Orioles Betting Pick
This game is reliant on how deep Silseth can go. Silseth can likely throw at least four innings, and since the Orioles have not performed well against righties, he should pitch better than Kremer.
With Kremer’s horrid expected metrics and how the Angels have performed against right-handed pitching, Los Angeles has a clear advantage.
Finally, the Angels have the weaker bullpen, but the Orioles’ relief staff is top heavy. The Angels lineup would do themselves a service by getting to Kremer early.
Take the Angels at +110, and play them to -120. They should be favorites.
Pick: Angels ML (+110 | Play to -120) |
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