Angels vs Reds Prediction | MLB Odds & Moneyline Pick
Photo by Jeff Dean/Getty Images. Pictured: Elly De La Cruz.
Angels vs Reds Odds
| Los Angeles Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-102 | 9.5 +100o / -120u | -1.5 +160 |
| Cincinnati Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-118 | 9.5 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -192 |
After getting swept by the Seattle Mariners, the Cincinnati Reds rebounded on Friday with a 7-1 victory over the Los Angeles Angels in the series opener. The Reds will look to build on that on Saturday as they send talented right-hander Graham Ashcraft to the mound. The 26-year-old has to a 4.15 ERA and 1.27 WHIP across 17 1/3 innings this season.
Ashcraft will be opposed by Angels southpaw Patrick Sandoval, who owns a 4.67 ERA in 17 1/3 innings. While he's been shaky at times this season, Sandoval pitched very effectively last time out against the Tampa Bay Rays, throwing five innings of one-run ball.
MLB odds for Angels vs Reds on Saturday have the Reds listed as -118 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Find out why I'm backing Cincinnati on the moneyline for my Angels vs Reds prediction in my MLB betting preview below.
Patrick Sandoval was effective when it counted in his last start, as he allowed only four hits and one run in five innings. However, the Rays still had a .336 xBA on balls in play. Sandoval also walked two batters while striking out just three.
The left-hander owns an xERA of 4.58 and an xFIP of 4.24 this season; he has pitched to a Stuff+ of 94 and Location+ of 98. Those first two marks are comparable to his 2023 ratings — xERA of 4.70 and xFIP of 4.61.
Since the start of 2023, opponents have posted a 30% line-drive rate on Sandoval's fastball, which is the second-highest mark among any starter to pitch at least 70 innings.
Largely thanks to Mike Trout and Taylor Ward, the Angels have posted surprisingly decent numbers at the plate this season, ranking 16th in wRC+ (98) entering Saturday. They rank seventh in xSLG with a rate of .421. However, they have strikeout issues (24%) and are only walking 7.8% of the time.
The Halos have also been less effective against right-handed pitching. In 639 plate appearances versus RHP, they own a wRC+ of 94 and have struck out 24.1% of the time.
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The Reds' talented young rotation looks poised to take meaningful steps forward in 2024.
Nick Lodolo was excellent in Friday's win, as he allowed just one run across six innings while striking out six. Based on Aschraft's underlying results, he could be ready to breakthrough with a good outing of his own.
Ashcraft has greatly underachieved his xERA of 3.27 thus far this season (actual ERA of 4.15). While xERA isn't an effective indicator of future results in such a small sample, the rest of his metrics suggest he is due for better. He owns an xFIP of 3.09, and he has been unlucky to run into a .309 BABIP.
Adding on, Ashcraft's Stuff+ is elite at 128, including a 166 rating on his slider. He has located at a league-average rate based on his Location+ of 99.
Pitching at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park has been a concern for Ashcraft throughout his career though. He owns a 7.94 ERA at home this season, and he pitched to a 5.40 ERA at home in 2023.
Cincinnati's offense will be in its preferred split against a lefty starter in Sandoval. It owns a wRC+ of 97 against lefties this year, and a walk-to-strikeout ratio of 0.52, which is seventh-best in MLB.
Jeimer Candelario is considered day-to-day with illness. He has slugged .500 versus left-handed pitching in a small sample of 21 PAs, so his potential absence is relevant.
Angels vs. Reds
Betting Pick & Prediction
Ashcraft owns better numbers than Sandoval in most metrics — traditional and advanced — and he offers the Reds a notable starting pitching edge. Ashcraft owns a superior arsenal of pitches, and he has used that to power a strong K/BB ratio of 4.75 compared to Sandoval's 2.00.
The Reds have hit to better splits versus left-handed pitching this season. Their underlying process at the plate suggests that they are due for improved results overall, and they make for a tough matchup for Sandoval.
Given the difference in form between Ashcraft and Sandoval, and the indicators which suggest this is a good matchup for the Reds offense, -116 looks to be a short number on Cincinnati. The Reds are worth a bet at anything better than -135.
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