Lo Duca’s Diamondbacks-Rockies Betting Preview: Will Senzatela’s Struggles Continue at Coors?
Kirby Lee, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Charlie Blackmon
Betting odds: Diamondbacks at Rockies
- Diamondbacks moneyline: -122 (Zack Greinke)
- Rockies moneyline: +112 (Antonio Senzatela)
- Over/Under: 10.5
- First pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET
>> All odds as of Monday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets
The National League West is a three-horse race with the Rockies, Dodgers and Diamondbacks. Colorado is in the catbird seat with a 1.5-game lead on Los Angeles with Arizona 3.5 games out.
Needless to say, this four-game set between the D-backs and Rockies is huge, and the Snakes are basically in must-win mode after losing Monday night at Coors Field.
It’s been a rough September for Torey Lovullo’s club, as Arizona has lost seven of its first nine games to start the month. The Diamondbacks will lean on a struggling Zack Greinke to right the ship Tuesday.
It will be easier said than done for the former Cy Young winner, as he’s up against a deep Rockies lineup that ranks third in the MLB in wOBA (weighted on-base average) at home (and 10th overall).
Greinke has also been scuffling lately. Over his past five starts, the 34-year-old has been touched up for seven home runs in 31.2 innings, and that doesn’t bode well going into Coors Field. In that span, Greinke sports a 3.98 ERA, and I’m wondering if his arm is starting to tire.
Even with this recent rough patch, it’s hard to argue that Arizona doesn’t have the pitching edge in this one with Antonio Senzatela toeing the rubber for the Rockies.
Senzatela has struggled big-time at Coors Field this season. The 23-year-old has a .383 wOBA and 5.04 ERA in 30.1 innings at home in 2018. Those numbers are not too far off his career marks in Denver (.345 wOBA and 5.12 ERA).
Senzatela has also struggled against right-handed hitters this year, so he could have a tough time navigating through the top part of Arizona’s lineup in A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt and Eduardo Escobar.
If this goes the way I think it will, the Snakes should get into the bullpen early.
Usually runs are tougher to manufacture when two teams battling for a playoff spot meet this late in a season, but in this instance, I think we’re in for a bit of a shootout.
The over/under for this game opened at 10, and that struck me. Two nights ago, the Rockies hosted the Dodgers with Clayton Kershaw on the mound against Jon Gray. Those are two aces, and the total was 9.5. It’s since ticked up to 10.5, but I still like it to go over.
Pick: Over 10.5 (-110)