The San Diego Padres host the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 8, 2026. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Padres are favored by -142 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Diamondbacks are +120 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Diamondbacks vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Padres Pick: Under 8.5
My Diamondbacks vs Padres best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 8.5 -104o / -118u | +120 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 8.5 -104o / -118u | -142 |
- Diamondbacks vs Padres moneyline: Diamondbacks +120, Padres -142
- Diamondbacks vs Padres over/under: 8.5 (-104o / -118u)
- Diamondbacks vs Padres spread: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-178), Padres -1.5 (+146)
Diamondbacks vs Padres Polymarket MLB Odds
Diamondbacks vs Padres Probable Pitchers
| Jose Cabrera (RHP, AZ) | Stat | Michael King (RHP, SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 5-7 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 4.73 / 6.42 | ERA / xERA | 3.52 / 4.57 |
| 5.89 / 5.13 | FIP / xFIP | 4.11 / 4.41 |
| 8.3% | K-BB% | 11.2% |
| 32.5% | GB% | 46.2% |
| .317 | BABIP | .249 |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 82 | Location+ | 100 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres MLB Betting Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview
The Diamondbacks have lost nine of 12, and as they drift 4.5 games out of the wild card, they'll deploy rookie Jose Cabrera once more.
Cabrera is trying to work his way into the major leagues, carrying a 4.73 ERA into this one across three starts. He's recorded a 1.58 WHIP, mainly since hitters are running a .295 Expected Batting Average against him, but around that, his walk rate is a solid 8.3%.
Down in Triple-A, Cabrera was a medium strikeout arm, so his weak 16.7% K-rate thus far isn't surprising, but one change is the fact that he's gone from a 56.5% ground-ball rate in Triple-A to a 38.6% thus far in the bigs.
Cabrera is going to try to get outs on contact, and he definitely did a good job of that with a .215 batting average against him in the minors, but thus far his fastball mix isn't really getting it done. He'll be up against a team that's hitting a solid .251 over the last two weeks, and with his offense sitting 24th in wRC+ over that span, he'll need to pitch well.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
It hasn't looked the same under the hood, but Michael King is maintaining his numbers through the first three months of the year.
King holds a 3.52 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through 18 starts, nearly identical to his 3.44 and 1.20 from a year ago. He's transitioned into a heavy ground-ball pitcher, meaning his xBA has gone up a bit, and his xSLG has gone down — but an unexpected twist is that his walk rate is at a career high of 9.8%.
This has caused his xERA to jump to 4.56, but it's hard to say King isn't capable of getting outs. His gaudy strikeout numbers may be gone, but opponents are running a low 34.4% hard-hit rate against King with a low 5.7% barrel rate. You'd expect the veteran's numbers to stay underneath his expected stats, too, with San Diego's infield ranking seventh in Outs Above Average and his outfield doing a bang-up job in a large, friendly ballpark.
The good news here for King is that the Diamondbacks put a ton of balls in play, and own a low 8.1% walk rate over the last two weeks. Against ground-ballers, they're just 19th in OPS, though the Padres are dead last in that split, which could spell trouble if Cabrera finds his ground-balling touch here. On top of that, the Diamondbacks are 27th against fly-ballers, which would technically represent an advantage.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Pick, Betting Analysis
I think the jury is still very much out on the 24-year-old Cabrera, and a heavier dose of ground balls could help him find his footing on Wednesday. His infield ranks fourth in OAA, narrowly beating out San Diego's, and for both men keeping the ball on the ground will be helpful.
The Padres have relied more upon power this year than in recent seasons, so Cabrera's mix of fastballs low in the zone should have a payoff — and pitching in San Diego, the threat of the home run shouldn't be quite as real. Furthermore, neither guy has been a stalwart in the walks column, but neither of these teams really has the patience to swing.
I'm going to go with the Under here despite the recent success of the Padres at the plate; King's proven to be a reliable option and Cabrera is far too new to make any sort of brash judgments. He was a solid minor-league arm and can do enough for us here.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-115) | Play to Under 8 (-110)
