Read on for my favorite MLB player props for Thursday.
Mariners vs Pirates Props
Bryce Miller is a pitcher similar to Bryan Woo (whom I cashed under 5.5 strikeouts yesterday) in that both have pretty extreme home/road splits, thanks to T-Mobile Park being the most strikeout-friendly park in baseball. Getting Miller away from Seattle gives him a noticeable downgrade in my model.
Miller is also shaping up as a good sell-high candidate. While he's racked up 23 strikeouts over his past three starts, my expected strikeout model had him closer to 15 during that span.
A huge reason for that gap is that hitters continue to chase pitches out of the zone at a career-high 38% rate against him. That's the primary reason he's sporting a career-best 31% strikeout rate.
But once you adjust for the favorable schedule and the unsustainably high chase rate, my model has him closer to a 23% true strikeout pitcher.
I'm expecting opponents to become more disciplined, with his chase rate regressing toward the 28% MLB average, which would naturally pull his strikeout rate closer to his career 23% mark.
The Pirates rank around league-average in chase rate, making them a decent candidate to force some of that regression.
There's also a sneaky lineup construction piece here.
I'm projecting Miller for a full workload today, around 90 pitches, before Luis Castillo (or another reliever) piggybacks him, which works out to around 23 batters faced. That would make Ryan O'Hearn, the No. 5 hitter, his most likely final batter (although there is some variance around that).
Pittsburgh's easiest stretch to strike out is hitters six through nine. Miller is likely to only face that group twice, while the tougher top five should get a third look at him, which is a subtle but meaningful ding to his strikeout ceiling.
My simulation has Miller staying Under 5.5 strikeouts at a fair price closer to -150.
Pick: Bryce Miller Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140 or Better)
