Lo Duca: Weekend Weather Providing MLB Over/Under Value
If you haven’t noticed, the elements have played a big role in the early part of the MLB season. It’s been cold, wet and windy through the first week and that’s not going to change over the weekend. Here’s how I’m handicapping three games this weekend with weather in mind.
San Diego Padres (+251) @ Houston Astros (-285) | O/U: 8.5
8:10 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Luis Perdomo (0-1, 11.25 ERA) vs. Lance McCullers (1-0, 3.38 ERA)
It’s supposed to rain A LOT around the league on Friday, so naturally the first game I want to talk about will be indoors.
It’s the opening game of a three-game set between the Astros and the Padres. When you’re on a bad team, like the Padres, it’s sometimes good to get away from home — especially for the hitters. Petco Park has always been a pitcher-friendly park. I know the Padres aren’t a juggernaut but they should score some runs in this one.
The Astros, meanwhile, are proving last year was no fluke. The train keeps rolling with 36 runs over their past five games. They may cover the over themselves. Starting pitcher Lance McCullers did look good in his first outing but his opponent tonight, Luis Perdomo, certainly did not. He doesn’t strike out many — he has a career 6.59 K/9 — and the Astros destroy pitchers like that. I just can’t see him keeping the Astros down. Lay the 1.5 runs with the ‘Stros and the over 8.5, as I’m projecting the switch of ballparks will help the Fathers get going a little bit offensively.