Wednesday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Taking a Shot on Big Dogs
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Baseball is arguably the best sport for sharp bettors. Unlike football and basketball, wiseguys don’t have to win 52.4% to turn a profit. By focusing on dogs (and avoiding big favorites), sharps can win 45% of the time but still make money because of the big plus-money payouts.
After analyzing Wednesday’s 12-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed four MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 2:10, 4:07, 6:05 and 7:07 p.m. ET.
All data as of 1:20 p.m. ET
Baltimore Orioles (+150) at Houston Astros
2:10 p.m. ET
The Orioles are 1-4, on the road and face the defending champs with Keuchel on the mound. Astros all day, right? Not so fast. Despite receiving 70% of bets, Houston has fallen from -205 to -170. This reverse line movement indicates sharp liability on Baltimore. Wiseguys at Pinnacle hit the O’s +173, causing the Baltimore line to plummet all the way down to +150. The Orioles are only getting 30% of bets but it accounts for 62% of dollars, another sign that smart money is taking a shot on the big road dog.
Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Angels (+130)
4:07 p.m. ET
As the Pride of Ipswich noted earlier today, the public is all over Kluber and the Tribe but wiseguys have been coming in hard on the Halos. Using our pro tools, we noticed three separate bet signals on the Angels. Sharps hit Los Angeles, which has caused LA to fall from +138 to +130. This movement is especially notable considering the fact that the Angels are only getting 20% of bets. Even though they’re the most lopsided play of the day, the line is still moving in their favor, indicating “pure” smart money.
Minnesota Twins at Pittsburgh Pirates (-111)
6:05 p.m. ET
Wiseguys are fading the trendy Interleague dog. Nearly 70% of bets are taking Minnesota, yet the line has moved toward Pittsburgh (-110 to -111). If the vast majority of bets are taking the Twins, why would oddsmakers move the line away from them? Because sharps have been hitting the Buccos hard, causing market-wide reverse line movement.
Chicago White Sox (+166) at Toronto Blue Jays
7:07 p.m. ET
The ChiSox are only getting 41% of bets but they’re receiving 74% of dollars, making them one of the top bet vs. dollar discrepancy plays of the day. Chicago is also receiving sharp reverse line movement. They opened at +185 at Pinnacle and are all the way down to +169, even though more than 60% of bets are against them. Wiseguys hit Chicago +180, causing the entire market to drop the line in Chicago’s favor.
A few reminders:
- A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
- To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
- Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 75% of spread bets vs. North Carolina but you see the line move from Duke -1 to +1.5. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on UNC.
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Pictured: Pirates teammates Adam Frazier (26) and Starling Marte (6) celebrate a recent win over the Minnesota Twins at PNC Park