Monday’s MLB Over/Under: Will deGrom Be On His Game in Atlanta?

Credit:

Kim Klement, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Max Fried

As I’ve said it several times before, there’s nothing better than a winning bet that you don’t have to sweat out, and thanks to Zack Greinke and Frankie Montas, we were able to cash yesterday’s Diamondbacks-Athletics Under 8 bet with ease. That’s three in a row now (and 7-1 over the last eight), so let’s see if I can complete the desired Memorial Day Weekend sweep.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 36-19-2, +14.7 units
Yesterday’s Result: Diamondbacks-Athletics Under 8, Greinke vs. Montas (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | O/U: 8 (Game 1)
1:10 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Jacob deGrom (4-0, 1.54 ERA) vs. Max Fried (0-2, 6.00 ERA)

Since seeing the over hit in each of his first four starts, DeGrom — and early NL Cy Young Award candidate — has helped ring up six straight unders entering today’s outing. With numerous key consistent trends in play here, deGrom looks like a good bet to make his presence felt and extend that streak one more.

First off, the 29-year-old has put together some marvelous numbers over the years when facing Atlanta. He’s 5-3 in 13 career meetings with a 1.89 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, while recording a nifty 90/19 K/BB ratio over 81 innings. He’s already squared off with the Braves twice this season, holding them scoreless over 11 innings and allowing just eight total baserunners. Also remember, the Braves figure to have a bit of a downgraded lineup this afternoon, with this being the first game of a double dip. In addition, rookie sensation Ronald Acuna is out for at least the opener after departing yesterday’s affair.

Of course, with deGrom toeing the rubber while the sun is still out, his greatness in daytime starts must be highlighted. Did you know deGrom’s career 1.97 ERA in 41 starts during the day is the best such mark in afternoon games in major-league history (in case you’re wondering who is second, that would be ol’ Mellie Wolfgang with a 2.15 ERA).

So, in these daytime conditions, we have to love deGrom’s outlook today, especially with all of the momentum he’s carrying as well. DeGrom could be the frontrunner, in fact, to be the NL Pitcher of the Month, as he’s surrendered just a single run (0.47 ERA) in his four starts in May. He’s in a nice spot here to finish the month strong.

Fried, deGrom’s counterpart today, is a capable dance partner in potentially helping reel in an under. This will be the lefty’s first start of the year and fifth of his career — one of which came against the Mets last season, whom he held to two runs (one earned) in five-plus innings. I actually watched that game (had the under, which won) and it was clear to me that this former first-round draft pick is a hurler that has more than enough talent to stick in Atlanta’s starting rotation.

Fried’s numbers on the year don’t really look positive but they have come exclusively as a reliever. He’s better-suited as a starter, which is what he was during his minor-league stint this season. Between Double-A and Triple-A, Fried posted a solid 3.12 ERA in five starts.

What will help the 24-year-old succeed is the fact that he’s a southpaw, against whom the Mets have struggled this season. The Amazin’s have been the worst team in baseball with a lefty on the hill, ranking dead last in team batting average (.210), on-base percentage (.286) and slugging percentage (.310). Even more alarmingly, they’ve cranked out only seven homers against portsiders — or a dreadful 60 AB/HR.

Because there’s some considerable juice on the over at the moment, you might as well wait a little bit to see if the line shoots up to 8.5, which would be really beneficial with a guy such as deGrom set as one of the probables. Even if that doesn’t happen, Under 8 is still a nice bet to lock in on for your Memorial Day festivities.

Play: UNDER 8/8.5

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