Astros vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Pick: Bet On Another High-Scoring Affair Thursday Night

Credit:

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Yuli Gurriel (left) and Carlos Correa.

  • BJ Cunningham previews Thursday's MLB game between the Astros and Diamondbacks.
  • After a 21-run matchup on Wednesday night, should we expect another high-scoring affair?
  • Find his analysis of the betting odds and a pick below.

Astros vs. Diamondbacks

Astros odds -115 [BET NOW]
Diamondbacks odds -105 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 9 (-120/+100) [BET NOW]
Time 7:07 p.m. ET

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The Diamondbacks’ bats finally came alive Wednesday, scoring nine runs in the fourth inning to win their fourth game of the season. The Astros haven’t been great to begin the season as they’re only one game over .500 through their first 11 games. They’ll call on their 7th-ranked prospect, Brandon Bielak, as they go for three out of four against the Diamondbacks.

Houston Astros

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

The Astros have gotten off to a pretty good start with a .345 wOBA and 130 wRC+. Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel have led the way with wOBAs over .480 and wRC+s over 200. It’s clear offense hasn’t been the issue for the Astros’ slow start, so they’ll need to keep their output up to keep pace with the A’s in the AL West.

Astros Projected Starter

Brandon Bielak, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Brandon Bielak has only pitched 5.2 innings in the big leagues and he’s been pretty solid. He’s only given up one earned run on four hits and has struck out six batters. Even with those solid numbers, Bielak doesn’t project out well with a FIP well over 5. The reason Bielak was moved into the starting rotation is due the Astros having a multitude of injuries on their pitching staff, so under normal circumstances, I don’t think Bielak would be starting.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

Before their 14-run outburst last night, the Diamondbacks had been the worst offense in baseball, which is odd because their lineup was projected to be above average before the season. Their slow start offensively has led to only four wins, and unless they can keep their bats hot, their chances at competing in the NL West will be gone.

Diamondbacks Projected Starter

Zac Gallen, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Zac Gallen has been a strikeout machine in his first two starts of the season, with 15 Ks in 10 innings of work. In those 10 innings he’s allowed three earned runs on seven hits and has walked six, so there is some room for improvement.

Gallen is the Diamondbacks’ future ace. Between his fastball, changeup and curveball, he held opponents to a .186 average in 2019. The fastball has average velocity, but he has fantastic control over it and can move it all around the plate while his change and curveball have some nasty action on them.

Gallen’s changeup is especially elite and almost acts like a sinker with crazy late breaking action. Gallen’s only issue is that his walk per 9 inning rate is a tad high at 4.05 in 2019. He won’t be able to afford getting behind in the count against the Astros’ loaded lineup.

Bullpens

The D-backs haven’t had to use any of their main horses in the pen over the last two days, so they should be good to go for this game. The Astros recieved news this week that closer Roberto Osuna needs Tommy John surgery. This just adds to the list of injuries to their already depleted bullpen.

Projections and Pick

Based on my projections, I think we will see another high-scoring game on Thursday night. I am going to back Over 9 runs at -120 (PointsBet) and would bet it all the way up to -130.

Pick: Over 9 runs (-120) [Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]

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