Astros vs Guardians Odds & Prediction: Bet Houston in Finale?

Following a nightmare start, the Astros have won three of their last four games to improve to 10-20. Much work is needed, but things are moving in the right direction.

The Astros and Guardians have split the first two games of this series — both matchups were decided in extra innings — setting up a Thursday night rubber match at Minute Maid Park.

Cleveland's record is inverse to the Astros', at 20-10. The Guardians currently have a two-game lead in the American League Central over the Royals and will look to build on that lead in pursuit of a potential division title.

Let's get into my MLB betting preview and Astros vs Guardians prediction for Thursday night.

The Astros were a pre-season American League favorite, but their FanGraphs playoff odds have dropped under 45% after a month of play.

Houston has primarily been let down by their pitching, as the Astros rank 26th in runs allowed per game (5.20) and 27th in starting pitching ERA (4.98).

Rookie Spencer Arrighetti will take the mound today.

Arrighetti doesn't typically go very deep into games, only pitching between three and four innings in each of his three starts this year. So, we should expect Houston's bullpen to handle a large workload.

Arrighetti boasts a 10.97 ERA but a 4.36 expected ERA and a 3.79 FIP, the difference explained by his 52% strand rate.

Despite his bad luck with runners on base, he has 15 strikeouts in 10 2/3 IP. He ranks above the 70th percentile of qualified pitchers in whiff rate and strikeout rate, so he has great stuff in his arsenal.

His ERA numbers are concerning, but his batted-ball profile isn’t horrendous. He ranks above the league average in exit velocity allowed and barrel rate allowed.

Arrighetti's underlying statistics indicate he should pitch better in the future.

Houston's lineup ranks among the top five in wRC+ (116) and wOBA (.330) while striking out at a league-low rate (17%). The Astros also rank among the top six lineups in exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

They've also been excellent against southpaws, which will play well on Thursday.

Left-hander Logan Allen will start the game for Cleveland on Thursday.

The 25-year-old second-year starter has proven himself reliable. This year, he has a 5.46 ERA, a 4.38 expected ERA, and a 5.12 FIP through 31 1/3 innings.

Allen’s Baseball Savant profile is very blue, which, for those unfamiliar, is not a good thing.

He isn’t meaningfully above average in any Statcast metrics this year. Allen has allowed hard contact but hasn’t balanced this out with high strikeout numbers or overwhelming stuff — he ranks 83rd out of 84 qualified starting pitchers in Stuff+ this year.

The Guardians rank 10th in wRC+, 12th in wOBA, and 14th in ISO. But their batted-ball profile indicates they've been much worse, ranking among the bottom three MLB lineups in exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

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While Arrighetti shouldn’t be expected to go deep into this game, I think he has a solid analytical profile, and we should see his ERA normalize quickly.

The market is likely overrating Cleveland’s offense as the Guardians' results haven’t matched their peripheral numbers. This could be a good matchup for Arrighetti despite the Guardians’ lower strikeout rate.

Conversely, the Astros have a top-tier offense in the game against a vulnerable starter in Allen. Despite the difference in records between these two squads, I think that there is value in backing the Astros tonight. They're only -125 on the moneyline despite having the better offense and starting pitcher.

Pick: Astros ML -125 (Bet to -130)

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