Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Nick Martin has that job for Tuesday, September 22.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Orioles -1.5 +175 (Bet365, Play to +165)
- Rangers Moneyline -130 (FanDuel, Play to -140)
Blue Jays vs Orioles Pick
Monday night's eighth-inning collapse essentially laid to rest the Blue Jays' faint hopes of returning to the Postseason. Star reliever Tyler Rogers faltered in a big spot, while the team failed to tack on any runs after a three-run outburst in the first inning, and those concerns from Monday's matchup touch on two reasons they do not appear to be large enough underdogs with Max Scherzer toeing the rubber Tuesday.
The Blue Jays' distinct lack of power has obviously been a big story this season, and after 157 games it's become clear that on average the lineup is too reliant on stringing hits together to do any meaningful damage. While the offense has still improved significantly down the stretch, the upside still doesn't feel overly high, and they may need to hang up a crooked total in this game to find success.
Scherzer's competitive fire has flashed down the stretch as he's scraped together some solid outings, but overall it's still been a very disappointing season for the future Hall of Famer, and it takes a pretty exact recipe for him to get by given where his stuff is now at pitching at age 42.
In many of Scherzer's starts this season, the Blue Jays have been more equipped to handle a shorter, more ineffective outing thanks to relievers such as Spencer Miles and Mason Fluharty. But after the critical series in Texas over the weekend and a lengthy stretch with only 2-3 healthy starters, the team's top relievers are overworked, which puts a lot of pressure on Scherzer to perform Tuesday.
Chris Bassitt, meanwhile, has been respectable of late, as he's pitched to an ERA of 3.76 throughout his last 40 and 2/3 innings, with a FIP of 3.83. He's backed by a superior lineup that was able to hang up six earned runs off Scherzer on September 11, and should have a decent chance to record another win over his former side.
Scherzer's results have been fairly boom-or-bust this season, while Toronto's lower-leverage relief options available in this matchup are concerning. With that in mind, this seems to set up as a good spot to target the Orioles covering the run-line at +175.
Pick: Orioles -1.5 +175 (Bet365, Play to +165)
Mets vs Rangers Pick
At 78-78, the Rangers are somehow in control of their own destiny atop the AL West with six games to play. While based on their season as a whole, they would be far from an overly formidable division winner, they have been highly effective against left-handed pitching for a lengthy sample of play and are in a good spot to do some damage Tuesday versus Sean Manaea.
Since June 1st, the Rangers have held a wRC+ of 133 versus left-handed pitching. They hold a 0.54 BB/K ratio in that span, which is the best in baseball by a considerable margin, and rank fourth in expected weighted on-base average. Throughout his last ten starts, Manaea holds an xERA of 5.65 and allowed a .270 xBA.
While on paper the Mets lineup has more upside than we have seen for much of the season, they have still hit a wRC+ of 95 versus lefties since June 1st. They do rank eighth in expected weighted on-base average in that span, but it would still be a reach to rate these offenses evenly in this spot.
Throughout his last ten starts, Mackenzie Gore has been respectable in pitching to a 4.23 ERA and an xERA of 4.27. As you would expect, he has pitched to contact much more effectively at pitcher-friendly Globe Life Field this season, where he holds an ERA of 3.53 throughout 81 and 1/3 innings.
At -130, it appears to be a playable number to back the Rangers earning the win in a critical matchup Tuesday.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline -130 (FanDuel, Play to -140)
