The Boston Red Sox host the Cleveland Guardians on September 22, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CLEG.
The Red Sox are favored by -125 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Guardians are +105 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 6.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Guardians vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction
- Guardians vs Red Sox Pick: Red Sox ML (-125, betMGM)
My Guardians vs Red Sox best bet is on Boston to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Guardians vs Red Sox Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 6.5 -120o / 100u | +105 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 6.5 -120o / 100u | -125 |
- Guardians vs Red Sox moneyline: Guardians +105, Red Sox -125
- Guardians vs Red Sox over/under: 6.5 (-120o / 100u)
- Guardians vs Red Sox spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+165), Guardians +1.5 (-200)
Guardians vs Red Sox Probable Pitchers
| Parker Messick | Stat | Payton Tolle |
|---|---|---|
| 12-9 | W-L | 9-6 |
| 4.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4 |
| 2.57 / 3.10 | ERA / xERA | 3.02 / 2.65 |
| 3.11 / 3.35 | FIP / xFIP | 3.04 / 3.48 |
| 19.5 | K-BB% | 22.3 |
| 44.3 | GB% | 36.6 |
| .265 | BABIP | .285 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 115 |
| 106 | Location+ | 100 |
Guardians vs Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
Guardians vs Red Sox Pick, Betting Analysis
Editor's Note: This written pick is a transcription from today's episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
I'm going with the Red Sox on the moneyline tonight against the Guardians. Boston did just clinch a playoff spot. Cleveland is one game up on the White Sox in the AL Central race. Chicago has the tiebreaker there, so the Guardians need to remain one game better than the White Sox from here on out to clinch that playoff spot.
Really nice pitching matchup in Boston tonight. Payton Tolle against Parker Messick, a pair of the most exciting young lefties in baseball. Red Sox -125 on the moneyline and a 4.4% edge by the Bartolo tool. Sean Zerillo projects the Red Sox around -150.
Messick is the pitcher who's been getting all the pub. Rookie of the Year candidate. Tolle is a little bit overlooked and he doesn't have that sparkling ERA, but he's got the sparkling peripherals.
Zerillo's tool has Messick as the 36th-best starting pitcher in baseball this year, which is really good. He has Tolle at 10th right now. So Tolle has been very, very impressive. His last two starts: six shutout innings against the Royals with one walk and seven strikeouts. The start before that, six innings of one-run ball against the Orioles. No walks, 12 strikeouts.
Obviously, the lefties will factor in here tonight big time. The Guardians lineup, with Steven Kwan and Chase DeLauter at the top, Tolle should be able to neutralize them. The lefty mashers that Cleveland has in their lineup, Jo Adell, obviously very scary, but he's very feast or famine. Big strikeout candidate against Tolle's stuff. Angel Martinez… who knows what we see out of him tonight.
In the Red Sox lineup, same thing. Wilyer Abreu, Roman Anthony, the lefties there. But they'll probably have lefty masher Jahmai Jones in their lineup. Willson Contreras crushes lefties. Caleb Durbin is actually above average against lefties as well.
Bullpen edge. Everyone talks about the Guardians bullpen for years and years. Cade Smith has thrown a lot of pitches lately. Both teams had a day off yesterday, so everyone should be available, especially for Cleveland in this big of a playoff race.
But the Red Sox bullpen actually grades out better with Aroldis Chapman, Tayron Guerrero, just a whole bunch of guys with stuff ratings above 100 there.
The one thing that gave me a little bit of pause about this is the Red Sox did just clinch a playoff spot. You usually get the clinching hangover, but they clinched on Sunday. They were off on Monday. That was their hangover day. Now they can get back to it today.
Boston should let Tolle do his thing. They want to keep him on schedule going into October. Red Sox moneyline again, -125, projected -150. So you could probably bet that to -130 or so.
Good stuff. And hopefully, for my sake, Boston gets it done.
Pick: Red Sox ML (-125, betMGM)
