The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres on September 22, 2026. First pitch from UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SDPA.
The Dodgers are favored by 55 cents on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are listed at 46 cents on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Dodgers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction
- Padres vs Dodgers Pick: Michael King Under 4.5 Hits Allowed
My Padres vs Dodgers best bet is for Michael King to allow under 4.5 hits on Kalshi. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page, and also download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis!
Padres vs Dodgers Odds
Padres vs Dodgers Probable Pitchers
| Michael King (RHP, SD) | Stat | Justin Wrobleski (LHP, LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-9 | W-L | 11-5 |
| 2.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.8 |
| 3.03 / 4.37 | ERA / xERA | 3.70 / 4.60 |
| 4.16 / 4.33 | FIP / xFIP | 4.22 / 4.10 |
| 11.7% | K-BB% | 14.8% |
| 44.5% | GB% | 40.1% |
| .253 | BABIP | .262 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 101 | Location+ | 113 |
Padres vs Dodgers MLB Betting Preview
Padres vs Dodgers Pick, Betting Analysis
Padres' ace Michael King is having a legitimately excellent season by the exact metric this prop is built on. His full-season profile is elite contact suppression. A 3.45 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and, going back to 2025's percentile rankings that still describe his approach.
A mid-80s percentile ranking in average exit velocity allowed and an 80th-percentile hard-hit rate, all backed by an above-average ground-ball rate. That's a pitcher whose whole competitive edge is limiting hard, clean contact rather than missing bats in bulk, which is exactly the skill that caps hit totals start after start regardless of opponent.
The head-to-head history against these Dodgers is the strongest piece of evidence here. Earlier this season, King stifled this same lineup, going seven innings, allowing four hits, and striking out nine in a 1-0 win over Yamamoto. allowing exactly the number on this line against L.A.'s full-strength order, with room to spare on innings.
His current form supports the same shape. Over his last handful of turns, King has been trending toward exactly this kind of outing: He allowed five hits over seven innings against a Giants team that beat him up early before he retired 18 of 19 batters at one point, four hits allowed in six innings in a win over Atlanta, and surrendered only three hits in seven shutout innings against Houston earlier in the stretch.
San Diego is fighting the Dodgers directly for playoff positioning in their final head-to-head series of the year, which means King is being deployed as the Padres' top option to start this series. They are confident in him, and you can back him confidently as well.
Pick: Michael King Under 4.5 Hits Allowed
