Twins vs. Athletics Odds, Picks, Predictions: Betting Trend Points to Value on Home Underdog (May 16)
Nic Antaya/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Logue.
- The first-place Twins are favored in their series opener against the A's.
- Chris Archer will start for Minnesota opposite rookie lefty Zach Logue for Oakland.
- Michael Arinze breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.
Twins vs. Athletics Odds
| Twins Odds | -120 |
| Athletics Odds | +100 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Time | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Athletics are out for revenge when they host the Twins, who swept them less than two weeks ago. Oakland will start their rookie Zach Logue while Minnesota will counter with the veteran Chris Archer.
Although the standings suggest that the Twins (20-15) are the better team, they only managed to beat the Athletics by one run in each of the three games.
Nonetheless, Minnesota is as high as a -140 road favorite on Monday night. Thus, it begs the question as to whether the Twins are a bit overvalued in this spot.
Can Bettors Trust Archer?
On March 29, the Twins signed Archer to a one-year deal worth $3.5 million. Injuries have been a problem for him as he made just six appearances in his past two seasons. The promising news for Archer is he looks healthy again and already has six starts under his belt this year. However, he's still searching for his first win as he's 0-1 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. His advanced numbers are even less favorable given his 5.62 xERA and a 6.24 FIP.
Command has been an issue for Archer, and according to FanGraphs, he's walking 4.84 batters per nine innings. While that could explain why he only has one start beyond the fourth inning, I think the Twins are also keeping him on a pitch count since he's yet to throw more than 79 pitches.
I'd suspect the Twins are concerned with the quality of hard-hit balls against Archer. He's been susceptible to the long ball, given his 2.42 HR/9 ratio. Opposing hitters also have a 12.1% barrel rate against him, almost twice his career mark of 6.7%. Lastly, his first-pitch strike rate is a career-low at 57%, and his Called Plus Swinging Strike Rate (CSW) is also pedestrian at 22.8%.
Put it all together, and you'd have to admit that Archer's been poor to start the year. The only question is whether a light-hitting Oakland team can take advantage of his inefficiencies. Even though there are seven teams in the majors with a worse winning percentage than the Athletics, Oakland is dead last in the league with a wRC+ value of 77 and a .262 wOBA.
Logue Has Strong Matchup vs. Minnesota
As Logue gets set for his third start, he'll face a familiar opponent in the Minnesota Twins. His first career start was against the Twins just 10 days ago. In that outing, he went five innings and allowed all two of Minnesota's runs in the loss.
While those numbers are still impressive for a rookie in his first start, Logue was even better in his next outing as he led the Tigers to a 9-0 victory after pitching seven shutout innings. Overall, the left-hander is 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.
We don't have enough sample size to assess Logue's quality more thoroughly with just three appearances. Although, he does look reasonably polished as a pitcher, considering he has four different pitches in his arsenal.
Per Baseball Savant, Logue throws a fastball (47.2%), a cutter (27.1%), a slider (13.6%), and a changeup (12.1%). While his fastball velocity is underwhelming at 90.6 mph, his ability to throw four different pitches consistently does offer some deception against hitters.
However, he'd be wise to feature more of his slider against the Twins because Minnesota is a league-worst 28.5 runs below average when facing the pitch.
Twins-Athletics Pick
Minnesota faces the challenge of beating the same pitcher again within just ten days. As a result, I'd fully expect Logue to make some adjustments as he prepares for the rematch. The question is, what can we expect to get from this Athletics offense?
The atmosphere in Oakland's been so toxic that fans continue to stay away from the ballpark and not support their team, given the rumors about ownership relocating the team.
First pitch at Coliseum pic.twitter.com/6aNyw4WMcg
— John Shea (@JohnSheaHey) April 20, 2022
At times, Oakland's announced fewer than 3,000 fans in attendance for some of its games. Thus, it's no surprise that Oakland is just 5-12 at home but 10-10 on the road.
I'm still recovering from the cooler the Dodgers gave me after rallying for two runs in the ninth inning to defeat the Phillies. So hopefully, you can forgive me if my appetite isn't quite there to commit to another underdog entirely.
However, if there's ever a time to back a home dog this season, it's been on a Monday. Home underdogs have been the most profitable on Mondays as they're 8-6 for 4.59 units. Moreover, with an opening total of +120 or higher, they're 6-3 for 5.65 units in this spot.
DraftKings has the best price, with Oakland at +115. And since my model makes Minnesota no more than a -120 favorite, it's either the dog or pass for this bettor.
Lean: Athletics ML (+110)
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