The Minnesota Twins host the Atlanta Braves on August 17, 2026. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on BravesVsn.
The Braves are favored by -124 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Twins are +111 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Braves vs Twins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Braves vs Twins Prediction
- Braves vs Twins Pick: Over 9.5 (-110 or Better)
My Braves vs Twins best bet is on the run total over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Braves vs Twins Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -151 | 9.5 -110o / -109u | -124 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +125 | 9.5 -110o / -109u | +111 |
- Braves vs Twins moneyline: Braves -124, Twins +111
- Braves vs Twins over/under: 9.5 (-110o / -109u)
- Braves vs Twins spread: Braves -1.5 (+125), Twins +1.5 (-151)
Braves vs Twins Probable Pitchers
| LHP Martín Pérez (ATL) | Stat | RHP Bailey Ober (MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-6 | W-L | 7-4 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 2.96/4.28 | ERA / xERA | 4.64/4.70 |
| 4.19/4.22 | FIP / xFIP | 4.78/4.88 |
| 8.6% | K-BB% | 10.1% |
| 47.5% | GB% | 34.3% |
| .231 | BABIP | .263 |
| 86 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 102 | Location+ | 93 |
Braves vs Twins Pick, Betting Analysis
Editor's Note: This written pick is a transcription from today's episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
I like the Over in this matchup, making this total closer to 10. I was able to get 9 at around -110, and I like it up to 9.5 at -110.
Both starting pitchers — Martín Pérez for Atlanta and Bailey Ober for Minnesota — grade out as below-average to near-replacement level for me. I have Pérez as my SP 161 and Ober as my SP 175.
Pérez has outperformed his ERA by about a run and a half. All of his underlying indicators put him in the mid-4s to high-4s range. He is currently carrying a sub-3 ERA compared to a 4.3 expected ERA (xERA). His underlying indicators are even worse than that expected ERA, and he is giving up a 10% barrel rate. The Twins have done a good job pouncing on pitchers this year and have really destroyed left-handed pitching in the starts I’ve watched.
On the other side, Ober throws in the high 80s. He is a 6-foot-10 replacement-level starter carrying a 4.6 to 4.8 weighted FIP projection.
There is no weather boost here tonight, with a cross breeze, though temperatures will be in the 80s. Factoring in these two offenses and the Twins' bullpen, I make this total about 10.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-110 or Better)
