The Philadelphia Phillies host the Atlanta Braves on August 31, 2025. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Phillies are favored to complete a four-game sweep over the rival Braves on Sunday Night Baseball, as Hurston Waldrep (0.90 ERA, 30 IP) will look to continue his impressive start to the campaign as he faces off against Jesus Luzardo (4.23 ERA, 149 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Braves vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Braves vs Phillies Prediction
- Braves vs Phillies picks: Under 9 Total Runs (DraftKings, -121)
My Braves vs Phillies best bet is Under 9 Runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Braves vs Phillies Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 9 100o / -120u | +140 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 9 100o / -120u | -165 |
Braves vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Hurson Waldrep (ATL) | Stat | LHP Jesús Luzardo (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | W-L | 12-6 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.9 |
| 0.90 / 3.21 | ERA /xERA | 4.23 / 3.55 |
| 2.32 / 3.70 | FIP / xFIP | 3.08 / 3.35 |
| 0.93 | WHIP | 1.32 |
| 15.0% | K-BB% | 19.7% |
| 43.8% | GB% | 42.2% |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 105 | Location+ | 109 |
Nick Martin’s Braves vs Phillies Preview
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
The recent emergence of former first-round pick Hurston Waldrep offers one cause for optimism to Braves faithful in what has become a lost season. After racking up 13.8 strikeouts per nine across 101 and 2/3 innings with the University of Florida, the Braves selected Waldrep 24th overall in the 2023 draft.
Waldrep's development stalled in 2024 as he struggled with command, but after adjusting to a more technically sound delivery this season, he has started to live up to the hype. He's also adjusted his pitch mix this season, which has increased the effectiveness of his high-quality fastballs.
While Waldrep has greatly outperformed his xERA of 3.21, he does feature an impressive underlying profile overall. He holds an xFIP of 3.70 and allowed hard contact only 34.2% of the time. He holds a Stuff+ of 104 and a Pitching+ of 112. Batters have managed an xSLG rate of just .215 versus his high-quality splitter, which he's used 29.8% of the time.
The Braves bullpen has pitched to an ERA of 3.88 over the last 30 days. The majority of the team's top relievers are in good shape entering this matchup, aside from Pierce Johnson, who's thrown 38 pitches over the last three days.
Atlanta is in a solid stretch of play offensively, as over the last 30 days it holds a wRC+ of 107 and a wOBA of .324. It has struggled to a wRC+ of 94 versus left-handed pitchers this season but has offered improved form versus lefties recently with a wRC+ of 110 since July 1st.
Austin Riley remains sidelined after receiving season-ending core surgery earlier in the month.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Luzardo continues to offer a mixed bag of results this season but has stabilized of late after a treacherous stretch of play throughout June and early July. In his last six starts, Luzardo holds an ERA of 3.06 across 35 innings of work, with an xFIP of 3.41. He holds a strikeout minus walk rate of 22.3% in those outings and a Pitching+ of 112.
After he was removed from Tuesday's game with the bases loaded in his last start, Luzardo was ejected for shouting obscenities at umpire Willie Traynor. He ultimately was charged with two more earned runs, finishing with four earned runs allowed across four innings of work.
While Luzardo was far from sharp in his last start, he has done well to bounce back from his lesser showings recently. In seven of the last eight starts that Luzardo has made following an outing in which he allowed three or more earned runs, he has responded by allowing two earned runs or less.
Philadelphia has been in excellent form offensively of late, as over the last 30 days it holds a wRC+ of 123 and has slugged .468. It has also been the eighth most productive side versus right-handed pitching this season, and for a second consecutive season has been significantly more productive while playing at home compared to on the road.
Braves vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
This appears to be a good spot to target somewhat of a pitcher's duel with a bet on the under, considering the high total of 9 in a game that will feature two high-upside starters offering strong recent form facing off.
Waldrep is obviously due to come down to earth to some extent but has high-quality stuff, which suggests he should be capable of offering above-average results over a larger sample of play. While Luzardo has struggled with consistency at times this season, he has been in steady form of late and is can make life very tough for opposing batters when at his best.
Citizens Bank Park also appears likely to offer slightly pitcher-friendly conditions at first pitch, with winds blowing in from left and a temperature of 74 degress.
Pick: Under 9 Runs -120 (DraftKings, Play to -130)
Moneyline
At +135 my lean would be with backing Waldrep in the Braves, given the potential that Waldrep could have another excellent outing and keep this game tight.
Run Line (Spread)
As with the moneyline, my lean would be with backing the Braves to cover the run-line if I had to make a choice.
Over/Under
As outlined, backing the game to feature less than nine runs is my favorite play from this matchup.
Braves vs Phillies Betting Trends
